New Hampshire Senate Race: Margin of Victory

New Hampshire held primary elections Tuesday to pick nominees for Congress, governor and the state Legislature, with Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's retirement reshaping the ballot. Rep. Chris Pappas led a five-way Democratic Senate field that included progressive challenger Karishma Manzur, a research scientist and democratic socialist whose late surge, fueled by criticism of Pappas' pro-Israel donor support and his "present" vote on restricting arms sales to Israel, narrowed his once-commanding lead despite his large fundraising advantage and Shaheen's endorsement. On the Republican side, John Sununu, endorsed by President Trump over rival Scott Brown, held a wide edge among eight candidates; both Sununu and Brown are former senators previously defeated by Shaheen. The seat is one of a handful nationally that could help decide Senate control, with Democrats needing a net gain of four seats.

Pappas' departure from the 1st District opened a crowded race, with Stefany Shaheen (Jeanne Shaheen's daughter) and Maura Sullivan leading a nine-person Democratic field; Republicans chose among five candidates including Trump-endorsed businessman Anthony DiLorenzo and repeat candidate Hollie Noveletsky. In the 2nd District, Democratic Rep. Maggie Goodlander faced a primary challenge from state legislator Paige Beauchemin, while Republicans chose from candidates including repeat nominee Lily Tang Williams. Gov. Kelly Ayotte easily advanced toward a second term against two Republican rivals, favored against unopposed Democrat Cinde Warmington. Winners have eight weeks to campaign before the November 3 general election, as New Hampshire shifts future primaries to June starting in 2026.

Rep. Chris Pappas, D-N.H., is running to succeed retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen against former Republican Sen. John E. Sununu. A win would make Pappas the first openly gay man elected to the U.S. Senate; only one openly gay senator, Tammy Baldwin, currently serves. Pappas, first elected to the House in 2018, says he isn't campaigning on the milestone, and his sexuality has barely surfaced in the race. The contest is pivotal to Democrats' hopes of flipping the Senate, with national Republican groups spending heavily to flip a seat in a state Democrats carried narrowly in 2024.

LGBTQ+ advocates say a Pappas victory would offer representation gains nationally, while researchers note identifying as gay can still carry an electoral penalty in some races.

Former Massachusetts senator Scott Brown is running a long-shot campaign for the New Hampshire Republican Senate nomination against John E. Sununu, son of former governor John H. Sununu, who has consolidated establishment support including an endorsement from President Trump. Sununu entered the race after his more popular brother, former governor Chris Sununu, declined to run.

Polling shows Sununu with a commanding lead: a University of New Hampshire survey of likely Republican voters put his favorability far ahead of Brown's, with Brown also carrying notably higher unfavorability numbers. RealClearPolitics' polling average shows Sununu leading by a wide margin, and outlets like The Cook Political Report treat Sununu as the de facto nominee against expected Democratic candidate Representative Chris Pappas. Brown, a Trump-appointed former ambassador to New Zealand and the 2010 winner of Ted Kennedy's former Senate seat, argues that "New Hampshire breaks late" and says he remains confident despite the deficit. The primary outcome will determine who faces Pappas in the general election.

New Hampshire Republicans voted Tuesday in an eight-person Senate primary dominated by two former officeholders: ex-Sen. John Sununu and ex-Sen. Scott Brown, both making comeback bids decades after their prior tenures. Sununu, who last appeared on a ballot 18 years ago, benefits from voter recognition of his younger brother Chris, the recent New Hampshire governor, and led in polls and fundraising after securing President Trump's endorsement despite past criticism of him. Brown, a former Massachusetts senator and Trump's onetime ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa, trailed but argued his independence from the party establishment and lack of major endorsements made him a stronger general-election candidate. Notably, Trump's endorsement played a smaller role than in many other GOP primaries this cycle.

The winner faces the Democratic primary victor, a contest between U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas, backed by party leadership, and progressive challenger Karishma Manzur. The general election, replacing retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, is expected to be competitive given national dissatisfaction with the political status quo and could factor into control of the Senate.

A New York Times/Siena University poll released Sept. 24 shows Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, leading Democratic challenger Troy Jackson 49% to 46%, the best result for Collins in any public poll since Jackson entered the race in July. A separate UMass Lowell/YouGov poll taken earlier in September had Jackson ahead by five points, underscoring how close and unsettled the race remains.

Collins is the only Republican senator up for reelection in a state Trump largely lost in 2024, making the seat a top Democratic target. She has historically outperformed polling, having won comfortably in 2020 despite trailing throughout that campaign. The Times poll was conducted largely before a Sept. 22 ProPublica report alleging a pay-to-play scheme tied to her 2020 campaign, which Collins denies, calling it a "partisan hit job." Jackson, a former Maine Senate president, entered the race after primary winner Graham Platner dropped out amid misconduct allegations. Voters see Collins favorably despite her largely pro-Trump voting record in 2025, while a majority in Maine disapprove of Trump's job performance.

New Hampshire Rep. Chris Pappas, the Democratic frontrunner for the state's open Senate seat, says his party should not overlook the race as competitive polling shows him running close with potential Republican challengers ahead of the September 8 primary. In an interview with CNN, Pappas cautioned against complacency in a state Democrats have long counted on to hold.

Pappas declined to say whether he would back Sen. Chuck Schumer to remain Senate Democratic leader, reflecting broader intraparty tension over leadership as Democrats look to flip seats and retake the majority. He also addressed the prospect of support from AIPAC, a topic that has stirred debate among Democratic candidates nationally. The race adds to a competitive map of Senate contests that will shape control of the chamber, with New Hampshire now viewed as more of a battleground than previously assumed.

The Republican National Committee has confirmed South Carolina will keep its "first in the South" status for the 2028 presidential primary, voting fourth overall after Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. The decision, approved at an RNC midterm convention in Dallas, preserves an early-state order that has held for roughly 40 years. An exact date hasn't been set, but the contest will likely fall in mid-to-late February, with the full calendar expected by next summer, according to state GOP Chairman Drew McKissick.

South Carolina's Republican primary has been a strong bellwether, with its winner capturing the GOP nomination in every cycle since 1980 except 2012. Trump won the state decisively in 2024. With Democrats set to open their own 2028 calendar in South Carolina on January 22, and Trump term-limited out of the race, the state is shaping up as an early battleground for both parties, already drawing visits from prospective candidates and allies.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear visited New Hampshire to promote his new book, "Go and Do Likewise," and campaign for fellow Democrats. During an interview and book signing in Concord, Beshear said he wrote the book out of frustration with faith being used to justify harmful policies rather than to help people, citing cuts to food benefits and rural hospital closures.

Beshear also criticized President Donald Trump's political style, saying it fosters division by framing issues as "us versus them" and invoking rhetoric about an "enemy from within," which he called contrary to the golden rule. As chair of the Democratic Governors Association, Beshear said his immediate focus is on winning governors' races in November, arguing they will shape the electoral map for 2028. He said he plans to finish his DGA term in December before deciding on any national ambitions, including a potential presidential run.