Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District: Who Will Win the 2026 House Race
Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District, covering urban Honolulu, holds its 2026 House election this November. The seat is currently held by a Democrat, consistent with the district’s long-standing lean. Voters will choose a representative for a two-year term in a midterm cycle that could reshape the balance of power in Washington.
Why Markets Are Watching
Midterm House races often serve as a referendum on the sitting president and national political mood. Hawaii’s 1st District rarely flips, but turnout swings and candidate quality can still shape margins and signal broader voter sentiment. Results here will feed into the national narrative about which party controls the House after 2026.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question is simple: which party, or which specific candidate, secures the seat once votes are counted. Markets isolate partisan control as the key variable, distilling a crowded field of candidates into a binary contest between Democratic and Republican outcomes. Traders are effectively weighing incumbency strength and historical district behavior against any signs of an unusual upset.
Related terms
Total Volume
$70.8k
Kalshi $128.22 · Polymarket $70.7k
Leading Market
Ed Case
Kalshi 98% · Polymarket 97%
Ed Case Volume
$40.5k
Kalshi $33.22 · Polymarket $40.4k
Ed Case 24h Change
+3.60%
Kalshi +3.60% · Polymarket 0.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed CaseDemocratic Party | 99.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Ed Case on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 99.0¢ | 5% | , trade Ed Case on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Adrian LamoRepublican Party | 2.6¢ | 7.0% | , trade Adrian Lamo on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
| Adriel C. LamRepublican Party | — | — | — | 2.0¢ | 5% | , trade Adriel C. Lam on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ed CaseDemocratic Party | $40,468.44 | ||
| Adrian LamoRepublican Party | $95.00 | No market | |
| Adriel C. LamRepublican Party | $30,272.00 | No market |