Washington’s 5th District House Race 2026
Washington’s 5th Congressional District, anchored in Spokane and eastern Washington, heads back to the polls in 2026 to decide its U.S. House representative. The seat has long leaned Republican, but shifting regional demographics and national political headwinds could make the contest more competitive than in recent cycles. Candidate filings and primary results will shape the field before the general election.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House often comes down to a small number of competitive districts, and eastern Washington’s political mood offers a window into rural and suburban voter sentiment nationwide. A shift in this traditionally red seat would signal broader momentum for one party heading into the midterms. Local economic conditions and national approval ratings both feed into how voters there decide.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question traders are weighing is simply which party’s nominee wins the general election, distilling a multi-candidate primary process into a binary partisan outcome. Related contracts on individual candidates let participants isolate the chances of specific contenders emerging from a crowded field. Together these markets translate a regional campaign into a clear signal about partisan control of a historically competitive-adjacent seat.
Related terms
Total Volume
$233k
Kalshi $181.6k · Polymarket $51.4k
Leading Market
Michael Baumgartner
Kalshi 84% · Polymarket 85%
Michael Baumgartner Volume
$141.6k
Kalshi $106.3k · Polymarket $35.4k
Michael Baumgartner 24h Change
-1.00%
Kalshi 0.00% · Polymarket -1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael BaumgartnerRepublican Party | 84.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Michael Baumgartner on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 85.0¢ | 5% | , trade Michael Baumgartner on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Carmela ConroyDemocratic Party | 18.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Carmela Conroy on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 16.0¢ | 5% | , trade Carmela Conroy on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael BaumgartnerRepublican Party | $141,629.38 | ||
| Carmela ConroyDemocratic Party | $91,415.83 |