Maryland’s 5th Congressional District: Who Will Win in 2026?
Maryland’s 5th Congressional District holds its general election on November 3, 2026, as voters choose a representative for the U.S. House. The district, anchored in Southern Maryland and parts of Prince George’s County, has long been a Democratic stronghold represented for decades by Steny Hoyer. Its outcome will help determine the partisan makeup of Maryland’s House delegation heading into the new Congress.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the House often comes down to dozens of individual district races, and incumbency shifts or retirements can reshape a seat’s competitiveness overnight. MD-05’s history of Democratic dominance makes any sign of a closer contest noteworthy for understanding broader national political trends. Local turnout and candidate dynamics here also reflect wider shifts in suburban and rural Maryland politics.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The contract reduces a multi-candidate election to a binary question: will the Democratic or Republican nominee win MD-05? That framing isolates partisan control rather than vote share, margin, or turnout specifics. Traders are effectively weighing historical district lean against any emerging competitive pressure, distilling a complex campaign into a single resolvable outcome tied strictly to Election Day results.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
United States Congress -
Maryland -
Prince George's County, Maryland -
Steny Hoyer -
Adrian Boafo -
Southern Maryland
Total Volume
$62.8k
Kalshi $614.56 · Polymarket $62.2k
Leading Market
Adrian Boafo
Kalshi 97% · Polymarket 97%
Adrian Boafo Volume
$10k
Kalshi $318.01 · Polymarket $9.7k
Adrian Boafo 24h Change
+4.80%
Kalshi +4.80% · Polymarket +1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian BoafoDemocratic Party | 96.9¢ | 7.0% | , trade Adrian Boafo on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 97.0¢ | 5% | , trade Adrian Boafo on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Chris CafferyRepublican Party | 3.7¢ | 7.0% | , trade Chris Caffery on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 4.0¢ | 5% | , trade Chris Caffery on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian BoafoDemocratic Party | $10,016.37 | ||
| Chris CafferyRepublican Party | $52,820.65 |