Which 2026 Senate Race Will Be Closer: Maine or Texas?

Maine Sen. Susan Collins says Washington will exempt several Canadian products, including corrugated paper, plastic boxes, and machinery, from tariffs, citing benefits for her state's agricultural sector. The announcement comes ahead of next month's midterms, with Collins facing a close race against Democrat Troy Jackson. President Trump said the U.S. is close to deals with both Canada and Mexico, though Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Ottawa is willing to wait for a future administration if needed. Talks collapsed in August, triggering steep tariffs from both sides, and Canada's chief negotiator says there is no set timeline for resuming formal negotiations.

A Republican super PAC supporting Sen. Susan Collins of Maine mistakenly ran digital ads targeting her Democratic challenger, state Senate President Troy Jackson, in Portland, Oregon, instead of Portland, Maine. Defending Main Street confirmed its media vendor spent roughly $25,000 on the misplaced ad buy before the error was caught and corrected. The group's ad buyer, working with Cross Screen Media and the 1903 Group, took full responsibility and is refunding the misspent amount, meaning no donor funds will be lost.

The mix-up comes in one of the most closely watched Senate races in the country. Collins is the only Republican senator representing a state carried by Kamala Harris in 2024, making her seat a top Democratic target as the party seeks to flip Republicans' narrow 53-47 Senate majority. While the error itself was minor and quickly fixed, it underscores the intense national attention and spending already surrounding the Maine contest well ahead of the election.

Polling shows a close contest between Sen. Susan Collins (R) and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson in Maine's U.S. Senate race, one week before the midterms. A Marist University survey found Jackson narrowly ahead among likely voters, within the poll's margin of error, while a Fox News poll showed the candidates tied and a Suffolk University poll also gave Jackson a slight edge. Election handicappers, including the Cook Political Report, rate the race a toss-up. Collins is seeking a sixth term; a win would make her Maine's longest-serving senator. Jackson, a former state senator, recently gained backing from dozens of former diplomats and foreign policy figures.

New polling shows a close contest between Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson ahead of the midterms. A Marist University survey found Jackson narrowly ahead among likely voters, within the margin of error, while a recent Fox News poll showed the race tied and a Suffolk University poll also gave Jackson a slight edge. Election handicappers rate the contest a toss-up. Collins, seeking a sixth term, would become Maine's longest-serving senator if reelected. Jackson, a logger and former state senator, replaced earlier Democratic nominee Graham Platner and has gained endorsements from former diplomats as he works to build name recognition statewide.

Sen. Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson clashed over corruption allegations during a combative debate in Maine's closely watched Senate race, which could help decide control of the chamber next year.

The exchange followed a ProPublica report that the FBI had moved toward investigating bribery claims against Collins before President Trump's agency shakeup sidelined the inquiry. The report alleged that Navatek CEO Martin Kao funneled $150,000 to a pro-Collins Super PAC through a shell company ahead of her 2020 reelection, expecting federal contracts in return. Collins called the claims "absolutely false," noted they were reviewed and dismissed by the Justice Department, FBI, and Federal Election Commission, and labeled Kao, now imprisoned for COVID-19 relief fraud, a "crook."

Jackson pointed to the timing of the investigation's collapse after Trump's election and Collins' frequent alignment with Trump's agenda. Collins countered by citing a bill Jackson backed that benefited his son's lobbying firm and reports that a PAC he led accepted corporate donations despite his no-corporate-money pledge. Jackson said he was unaware of the contributions and had ended the practice.

Maine's 2026 Senate race is drawing national attention as Republican incumbent Susan Collins seeks a sixth term against Democratic challenger Troy Jackson, in a contest seen as pivotal to control of the chamber. Collins has emphasized independence from President Trump during campaign events, including a recent debate. Former Democratic-turned-independent Senator Joe Manchin, who endorsed Collins and called her "the soul of the Senate," is set to campaign alongside her at an event in central Maine this week. The race is one of several competitive statewide contests in Maine, alongside governor and congressional races, making the state a key battleground for the 2026 midterms.

Maine Democrats are demanding that Sen. Susan Collins address a ProPublica report alleging the FBI planned in 2024 to investigate whether she knew about illegal campaign contributions tied to Hawaii defense contractor Navatek. The report says a Collins fundraiser sought a $500,000 donation from Navatek executives in 2019, and CEO Martin Kao funneled $150,000 through a shell company after Collins allegedly committed to securing the company $32 million in Navy contracts. Kao and two other executives were later indicted for illegal campaign donations; Kao is now serving additional prison time after pleading guilty. ProPublica reported the probe stalled after Trump took office in 2021, amid a broader pullback in corruption investigations under his administration, including cuts to the Justice Department's Public Integrity Section and an FBI public-corruption squad.

Collins called the allegations "categorically false" and attacked Kao's credibility given his fraud and money-laundering convictions; the FBI said it already investigated and found nothing implicating her. Senate Majority Leader John Thune called the report "a political hit job." It lands six weeks before Collins seeks a sixth term against Democrat Troy Jackson, who called the allegations "corruption of the highest order," in a pivotal Senate race in a state Trump lost in 2024.

A New York Times/Siena University poll released Sept. 24 shows Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, leading Democratic challenger Troy Jackson 49% to 46%, the best result for Collins in any public poll since Jackson entered the race in July. A separate UMass Lowell/YouGov poll taken earlier in September had Jackson ahead by five points, underscoring how close and unsettled the race remains.

Collins is the only Republican senator up for reelection in a state Trump largely lost in 2024, making the seat a top Democratic target. She has historically outperformed polling, having won comfortably in 2020 despite trailing throughout that campaign. The Times poll was conducted largely before a Sept. 22 ProPublica report alleging a pay-to-play scheme tied to her 2020 campaign, which Collins denies, calling it a "partisan hit job." Jackson, a former Maine Senate president, entered the race after primary winner Graham Platner dropped out amid misconduct allegations. Voters see Collins favorably despite her largely pro-Trump voting record in 2025, while a majority in Maine disapprove of Trump's job performance.

A new Washington Post-Schar School poll finds Democrat Troy Jackson leading Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) 50 percent to 46 percent, with less than a month until Election Day. The race is among the most closely watched of the midterms, as Collins is the only Senate Republican defending her seat this cycle in a state that backed Kamala Harris in 2024, and the outcome could help determine control of the chamber, where Republicans hold a narrow majority.

The survey, conducted Sept. 30 to Oct. 5, shows Collins struggling with President Trump's unpopularity in Maine, with a majority of voters saying she has been too supportive of him. Jackson, a former Maine Senate president who entered the race after Graham Platner's campaign collapsed amid scandal, leads on affordability, health care, abortion and corruption, while Collins holds a wide edge on securing federal funding and bipartisan dealmaking. Collins has cast Jackson as too liberal for Maine, citing his past support for Medicare for All, while highlighting his earlier opposition to abortion rights.

Sen. Bernie Sanders campaigned across Maine this weekend for Democrat Troy Jackson, who is running a dead-heat race against five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins. At stops in Bangor, Lewiston and Biddeford, Sanders and Jackson tied high living costs, gas and heating prices, and health care expenses to Republican control of Congress, while Sanders called President Trump "the most dangerous president in the history of America."

Jackson, a fifth-generation logger and state legislator, pitched himself as a working-class candidate who has struggled with his own mortgage and medical bills, and pointed to his record expanding free school lunches and gun background checks. Both candidates backed Sanders-style proposals including universal health care, taxing billionaires, and funding affordable housing and child care. Collins, 73, has previously outperformed polling but faces headwinds from inflation, an unpopular war in the Middle East and Trump-related voter fatigue, even among traditionally moderate Mainers. Polls currently show the race tied ahead of the November 3 election.