Illinois’ 6th Congressional District House Race 2026
Illinois’ 6th Congressional District, covering parts of Chicago’s western and northwestern suburbs, will hold its House election on November 3, 2026. The district leans Democratic, shaped by suburban Cook, DuPage, and Lake County voters. The seat’s outcome will hinge on primary results and candidate positioning ahead of the midterm cycle.
Why Markets Are Watching
Suburban districts like IL-06 often reflect broader shifts in voter sentiment heading into midterm years. The result will factor into the national battle for House control and signal how suburban Chicago voters respond to the political climate under the sitting administration. Local turnout patterns here can mirror trends across similar suburban districts nationwide.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The contract reduces a multi-candidate race into a binary question: will the Democratic or Republican nominee win the general election. That framing strips away the complexities of primary fields and campaign dynamics, focusing purely on the partisan outcome. Traders are effectively weighing district partisanship against potential volatility in a midterm environment.
Related terms
Total Volume
$63.3k
Kalshi $926.33 · Polymarket $62.3k
Leading Market
Sean Casten
Kalshi 96% · Polymarket 98%
Sean Casten Volume
$26k
Kalshi $139.99 · Polymarket $25.9k
Sean Casten 24h Change
+3.20%
Kalshi +3.20% · Polymarket 0.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean CastenDemocratic Party | 99.1¢ | 7.0% |
|
98.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Niki ConfortiRepublican Party | 3.7¢ | 7.0% |
|
4.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
Illinois Democrats project unity at state fair amid harassment and corruption fallout
PN Team • 2 months ago
Illinois Democrats gathered at the state fair in Springfield for their annual Democrats' Day, with Gov. JB Pritzker, Sens. Dick Durbin and Tammy Duckworth, Attorney General Kwame Raoul, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren delivering anti-Trump speeches while downplaying ideological rifts roiling the national party. Warren praised Senate candidate Juliana Stratton for standing up to AIPAC and corporate PACs, touching on divisions over Israel-Gaza policy and campaign finance that have proven more combustible elsewhere. But the celebratory tone was clouded by House Speaker Chris Welch's handling of a sexual harassment scandal involving former Rep. Harry Benton, and the recent indictment of Rep. Carol Ammons and her husband on fraud charges. Welch skipped the main event; three House Democrats have refused to join his working group on the harassment issue, calling its formation flawed.
A day later, Republicans held their own fairground rally, with Gov. candidate Darren Bailey and running mate Aaron Del Mar attacking Pritzker over cost of living, public safety and schools while avoiding mention of Trump. Senate candidate Don Tracy branded Stratton and Democratic Socialist allies as extreme, and House GOP leader Tony McCombie renewed criticism of Welch. Separately, the DNC narrowed its 2028 convention host shortlist to Boston, Denver and Philadelphia, excluding Chicago, which hosted in 2024 and remains in contention for 2032. Pritzker's campaign also launched a TV ad branding Bailey as extreme ahead of November.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Juliana Stratton Stratton is praised by Warren for standing up to AIPAC and corporate PACs, a favorable portrayal despite being attacked by opponents.
- Democratic Party (United States) The party is depicted projecting unity while facing internal rifts, harassment scandal fallout, and a corruption indictment.
- Elizabeth Warren Warren is shown praising a candidate for standing up to AIPAC and delivering a speech, a favorable portrayal.
- Dick Durbin Durbin is shown delivering a unifying anti-Trump speech at a party event, a mildly favorable mention.
- Donald Trump Trump is the target of anti-Trump speeches, portraying him negatively by association though not directly detailed.
- United States House of Representatives The House is implicated via the harassment scandal handling and Ammons' indictment, casting a shadow on the institution.
- Boston Boston is named as a finalist city for the 2028 DNC convention, a neutral-to-favorable civic mention.
- Denver Denver is named as a finalist city for the 2028 DNC convention, a neutral-to-favorable civic mention.
- Philadelphia Philadelphia is named as a finalist city for the 2028 DNC convention, a neutral-to-favorable civic mention.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are shown actively campaigning and criticizing Democrats, a mildly favorable strategic portrayal.
- Chicago Chicago is noted as excluded from the 2028 convention shortlist despite hosting in 2024, a mildly unfavorable civic note.
- Illinois Illinois is the setting for the political events described, a neutral geographic reference.
- Israel Israel is mentioned only in the context of policy divisions over Israel-Gaza, a neutral reference.
- Springfield, Illinois Springfield is the location of the state fair events described, a neutral geographic reference.
- United States Senate Referenced only through senators' speeches, a neutral institutional mention.
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Education
Lake County, Illinois voters to decide on 1% school sales tax
PN Team • 1 month ago
Lake County, Illinois voters will decide on the Nov. 3 ballot whether to impose a 1% countywide sales tax dedicated to school facility improvements. Under a 2007 state law, school districts representing a majority of a county's students can place such a measure on the ballot as an alternative to raising local property taxes. Twenty-three Lake County districts, representing 60% of the county's roughly 114,000 students, approved resolutions to put the question before voters, including Mundelein, Waukegan, Wauconda, Lake Zurich and Barrington districts.
Fifty-seven of Illinois' 102 counties have adopted the tax, but no collar county has previously attempted it. Proceeds could fund safety upgrades, repairs, renovations, new construction and bond repayment, and pay for school resource officers and mental health staff, but not salaries generally, buses, textbooks or furniture. Groceries, medications and vehicles would be exempt. If approved, the tax would take effect July 1, 2027.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Lake County, Illinois Lake County is the central subject of the story about a proposed sales tax measure, presented factually without clear reputational spin.
- Illinois Illinois is mentioned as the state context for the tax law, a neutral factual reference.
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Elections
Melissa Bean, Jennifer Davis vie for Illinois’ 8th Congressional District
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Former U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean, a centrist Democrat, is seeking a political comeback in Illinois' 8th Congressional District, facing Republican newcomer Jennifer Davis in the Nov. 3 general election. The seat is open after Democratic Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, who has endorsed Bean, left to run unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate. An independent write-in candidate, Christopher Krumpac, is also running.
The district, which stretches from the northwest Chicago suburbs to Elgin and the Fox River Valley, leans solidly Democratic. Bean, who first won the seat in 2004 and served until 2011, has outraised Davis, aided in part by a super PAC tied to AIPAC that drew progressive criticism during the primary. Davis, a tech entrepreneur making her first run for office, has loaned her own campaign $1 million to stay competitive.
The candidates diverge sharply on abortion, immigration, and Trump-era policies, with Bean casting the race as a check on the administration and Davis positioning herself as a political outsider focused on small business and economic concerns.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Melissa Bean Bean is portrayed as a credible, experienced candidate seeking a comeback with strong fundraising and an endorsement.
- Donald Trump Trump is referenced as a divisive figure whose policies are being contested, with Bean positioning herself as a check on his administration.
- Israel Israel is referenced via the AIPAC-tied super PAC that drew progressive criticism.
- Democratic Party (United States) The district leans Democratic and Bean is identified as a centrist Democrat seeking a comeback.
- Raja Krishnamoorthi Krishnamoorthi is mentioned positively as endorsing Bean, though his Senate bid failed.
- United States Senate Krishnamoorthi left the House seat to run unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate, a minor setback mention.
- Independent politician An independent write-in candidate, Christopher Krumpac, is mentioned as running, a neutral factual reference.
- Illinois Illinois is the state context for the district, mentioned factually.
- Illinois's 8th congressional district The article centers on the race for this congressional district, described neutrally.
- Republican Party (United States) Davis is identified as the Republican newcomer in a neutral, factual context.
- United States The United States is mentioned as the context for the general election and Senate race.
- United States House of Representatives The race concerns a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, mentioned factually.
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Elections
Illinois Democrats Campaign Nationally Ahead of Election Day
PN Team • 4 days ago
With Election Day a week away, Illinois Democrats are campaigning beyond state lines to aid party allies nationally. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi backed Texas Railroad Commissioner candidate Jon Rosenthal; Sen. Tammy Duckworth campaigned for Sherrod Brown in Ohio; Rahm Emanuel canvassed in New Hampshire; and Rep. Danny Davis and successor nominee La Shawn Ford campaigned for Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate David Crowley. Gov. JB Pritzker is focused on his own reelection, holding a large cash advantage and backing fellow Democrats financially.
Big money is also flowing into Illinois races, including Chicago school board contests, with GOP megadonors Dick and Elizabeth Uihlein and wealthy Democratic-aligned groups both spending heavily to shape outcomes from Springfield to Chicago.
Sources:
Sentiment
- La Shawn Ford Described as actively campaigning for a gubernatorial candidate, a mildly favorable portrayal of political engagement.
- Raja Krishnamoorthi Portrayed as actively backing a candidate outside Illinois, reflecting engaged political leadership.
- Rahm Emanuel Noted as canvassing in New Hampshire, a neutral-to-mildly-positive depiction of political activity.
- Democratic Party (United States) Described as the party whose members are campaigning nationally, a neutral factual framing.
- Sherrod Brown Mentioned as the recipient of campaign support, a neutral factual reference.
- Illinois Central setting for the story's political campaigning activity, described neutrally.
- United States House of Representatives Mentioned as the chamber several campaigning representatives belong to, with no evaluative content.
- United States Senate Referenced as the chamber of two campaigning senators, factual and neutral.
- Chicago Mentioned as a location where political spending is shaping outcomes, a neutral factual reference.
- New Hampshire Named only as the location of a canvassing trip, a neutral factual mention.
- Ohio Referenced as the state where a senator campaigned, a neutral geographic detail.
- Springfield, Illinois Named as one endpoint of political spending flows, a neutral factual mention.
- Texas Mentioned as the state of a Railroad Commissioner race, a neutral geographic reference.
- Wisconsin Referenced as the site of a gubernatorial race receiving Illinois support, a neutral mention.
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Elections
Chicago mayoral candidate sues rivals over dual office bids
PN Team • 1 month ago
Chicago mayoral candidate William J. Quinlan has filed a lawsuit against fellow contenders Alexi Giannoulias, Mike Quigley and Maria Pappas, arguing they cannot legally run for mayor while also seeking reelection to their current offices. Quinlan's suit cites the Illinois Election Code, which requires candidates seeking two "incompatible" offices to withdraw from all but one if they could not serve in both simultaneously. Quinlan is asking for an expedited hearing and ruling before October 18.
The three defendants are up for reelection this November to their existing posts — secretary of state, Congress, and Cook County treasurer, respectively — while the Chicago mayoral race takes place next year, meaning none currently holds a city office. The Quigley campaign has dismissed the suit as frivolous, while a Giannoulias spokesperson said he remains focused on Chicago issues rather than the litigation. Candidate Willie Wilson has separately raised ethical objections to the practice. The stakes are especially notable for Giannoulias, who has built a roughly $22 million campaign fund. Courts will now decide whether the rivals can remain on ballots for both their current offices and mayor.
Sentiment
- Cook County, Illinois Cook County is referenced only as Maria Pappas's current office, a neutral factual detail.
- United States House of Representatives Mentioned only as the office Mike Quigley currently holds, a factual reference without reputational weight.
- Chicago Chicago is the setting for the mayoral race and lawsuit, mentioned factually without reputational implication.
- Illinois Illinois is mentioned only in reference to the state's election code, a neutral legal citation.
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Elections
Illinois 2026 Statewide Races Set as Candidates Face Off for Senate, Governor and More
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Illinois voters head to the polls Nov. 3 to fill an open U.S. Senate seat and decide contests for governor, attorney general, secretary of state, comptroller and treasurer. Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton faces Republican Don Tracy for the Senate seat being vacated by Dick Durbin. Gov. J.B. Pritzker, running with new lieutenant governor pick Christian Mitchell, seeks a third term in a rematch against Darren Bailey, who has Donald Trump's endorsement and running mate Aaron Del Mar.
Incumbent Attorney General Kwame Raoul faces Republican Bob Fioretti, while Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias, now also running for Chicago mayor, is challenged by Republican Diane Harris. With Comptroller Susana Mendoza not seeking re-election amid her own mayoral bid, Democrat Margaret Croke and Republican Bryan Drew are competing for that office. Treasurer Mike Frerichs seeks re-election against Republican Max Solomon. The races will shape state policy on taxes, spending oversight, abortion access and Illinois' relationship with the Trump administration, with early and mail voting available ahead of Election Day.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Juliana Stratton Stratton is highlighted as the Democratic Senate candidate, a notable career advancement opportunity.
- Dick Durbin Durbin is mentioned simply as the retiring incumbent, a neutral factual note.
- Donald Trump Trump's endorsement is noted, tying him to the race in a way that could be polarizing.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic candidates are described as competing in multiple races without particular favor or criticism.
- Don Tracy Tracy is mentioned as a candidate without further characterization.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican candidates are described as competing in multiple races without particular favor or criticism.
- Chicago Chicago is mentioned regarding mayoral bids tangential to the main story.
- Illinois Illinois is the central location for this factual election overview.
- United States Senate The open Senate seat is central to the factual election overview.
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Elections
Illinois Activists Export Abortion-Rights Strategy to Red States
PN Team • 2 days ago
Project 50, a political group founded by Illinois abortion-rights veterans including former state Sen. Heather Steans and ex-HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, is working to replicate Illinois' decades-old shift toward abortion access by targeting state legislative races in conservative states with bans or heavy restrictions. After early setbacks in Arizona, the group refocused on culturally conservative states in 2023, winning three races in its first three years and four more in 2025, including in Virginia. It has raised over $3.7 million from donors such as Michael Bloomberg and Gov. JB Pritzker. Organizers say the strategy targets voters uneasy with total abortion bans, not broad support for unrestricted access. Abortion-rights opponents call its electoral impact limited so far.
Sources:
Sentiment
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Administration Watch
FEMA denies Illinois disaster aid request amid Trump-Chicago tensions
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
The Federal Emergency Management Agency has rejected Illinois' request for a major disaster declaration following severe storms, flooding, straight-line winds and tornadoes that struck the state in August. FEMA Administrator Cameron Hamilton said federal assistance was "not warranted," affecting Champaign, Cook, Ford, Fulton, McLean, Tazewell, Vermilion and Will counties. Gov. JB Pritzker's office says the state will appeal, citing extensive damage to homes, infrastructure and widespread power outages. Pritzker accused Trump of playing politics with disaster relief, a charge echoed by Illinois Democrats including Sen. Dick Durbin and Rep. Robin Kelly, while Republican Rep. Darin LaHood also urged approval of the declaration.
The denial follows renewed attacks by Trump on Chicago over crime and comes amid separate reporting that Trump approved disaster aid for Ohio ahead of a campaign rally while leaving other states' requests pending. Trump has also approved aid for Hawaii and New Hampshire, complicating claims of a partisan pattern. The White House denies any political motive behind its disaster aid decisions.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is accused of playing politics with disaster aid, a clear reputational hit despite denials of partisan motive.
- Darin LaHood LaHood is portrayed favorably for urging approval of disaster aid despite being a Republican, showing bipartisan concern for constituents.
- Illinois Illinois is the central subject of the denied disaster aid request, framed as a victim of political tension.
- Cook County, Illinois Cook County is listed among areas affected by severe storms and denied federal disaster aid.
- Chicago Chicago is referenced amid renewed Trump attacks over crime, a mildly negative association.
- Hawaii Hawaii is mentioned as having received approved disaster aid, a neutral-to-positive contrast.
- New Hampshire New Hampshire is mentioned as having received approved disaster aid, a mild positive contrast.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic officials are portrayed as pushing back against FEMA's denial, a neutral political advocacy role.
- Dick Durbin Durbin is mentioned echoing criticism of Trump, a neutral political statement.
- Ohio Ohio is mentioned as receiving approved disaster aid ahead of a campaign rally, a neutral/tangentially positive mention.
- Republican Party (United States) A Republican congressman is shown bucking party lines to support the disaster declaration, a mixed/neutral mention for the party overall.
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Climate
Illinois Requests FEMA Disaster Aid After August Storms
PN Team • 1 month ago
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker has requested a presidential major disaster declaration from FEMA for eight counties — Champaign, Cook, Ford, Fulton, McLean, Tazewell, Vermilion and Will — hit by tornadoes, high winds and flooding in mid-August. The state also extended its disaster proclamation for another month. A preliminary damage assessment found the destruction exceeds what Illinois can handle on its own, following an Aug. 11 storm with tornadoes and near-100 mph winds, additional wind damage on Aug. 13, and flooding on Aug. 14.
Approval is not guaranteed. An earlier analysis found Democrat-led states had a much lower FEMA request approval rate under the current administration compared to Republican-led states, and Illinois' two most recent FEMA requests in 2025 were denied. Illinois leads the nation with 210 confirmed tornadoes this year but had not previously sought FEMA help, instead relying on Small Business Administration assistance. If approved, FEMA aid would fund individual housing and repair grants and public infrastructure reimbursements. The request also drew political criticism from Pritzker's gubernatorial rival, Darren Bailey.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) Republican-led states are noted as receiving higher FEMA approval rates than Democrat-led ones, implying political favoritism under the current administration.
- Illinois Illinois is depicted as struggling with severe storm damage and facing possible denial of federal disaster aid, reflecting negative circumstances though not the state's fault.
- Cook County, Illinois Cook County is listed as one of the counties affected by the storms, a neutral factual reference.
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Local & State
Chicago City Council approves $2.5 billion parking meter deal with Stonepeak Partners
PN Team • 1 month ago
Chicago's City Council voted 46-3 to approve a $2.53 billion deal transferring the city's parking meter system to New York investment firm Stonepeak Partners. The agreement replaces the 2008 deal brokered under then-Mayor Richard M. Daley, which had allowed private investors, including some from Abu Dhabi, to recoup their original $1.15 billion investment more than twice over with 57 years still remaining. Under the new terms, Chicago will receive a $75 million transfer fee at closing, 5% of net income going forward, and 2% of any future resale price before the deal expires in 2084. The city also secured reduced penalties for taking meter spaces out of service.
Some alderpersons initially opposed the deal over Stonepeak's ownership stake in Omni Air International, an airline that has run deportation flights for the Trump administration. Stonepeak has agreed to sell that airline as part of the compromise that secured Council approval.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Chicago Chicago secures a much-improved financial deal and better terms, reflecting positively on the city's negotiating position.
- Donald Trump Mentioned only tangentially in connection with deportation flights operated by an airline linked to Stonepeak.
- New York City Mentioned only as the home base of the investment firm involved, a neutral factual detail.
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Illinois’ 8th Congressional District House Race 2026
Leading:
95.7%
Melissa Bean
Vol $3.8k
Illinois’ 14th Congressional District House Race Winner
Leading:
97.5%
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Vol $7.1k
Illinois 5th Congressional District: 2026 House Race
Leading:
97.5%
Mike Quigley
Vol $10.3k
Illinois’ 16th District House Race Winner
Leading:
96.5%
Darin LaHood
Vol $23k
Illinois’ 10th Congressional District House Race 2026
Leading:
98%
Brad Schneider
Vol $12.2k
Illinois’s 11th Congressional District: 2026 House Race
Leading:
96.5%
Bill Foster
Vol $2k
Illinois 7th District House race 2026
Leading:
98.5%
La Shawn K. Ford
Vol $27.8k
Illinois’ 15th Congressional District House Race 2026
Leading:
96.1%
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Vol $2.2k