Florida Senate Race: Margin of Victory

Florida Democratic Senate nominee Angie Nixon drew a sharp rebuke from the Department of Homeland Security after saying Republicans were "literally trying to kill" black Americans and calling ICE a "weaponized paramilitary force" designed to terrorize people. Nixon made the remarks on a podcast this month, days before winning her primary, citing a September 2025 ICE operation in Chicago's South Shore neighborhood that targeted suspected Tren de Aragua members and resulted in roughly two dozen detentions.

DHS called the racial-profiling allegations "categorically FALSE," saying immigration status—not race—drives enforcement, and cited a sharp rise in reported assaults, vehicular attacks, and death threats against agents. The Republican National Committee argued Nixon's comments would help GOP candidates nationally. Nixon, a Democratic Socialists of America member, defeated former National Security Council official Alexander Vindman by 12 points in a lopsided primary upset despite being vastly outspent and lacking backing from Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, or the DSA, winning most major metro areas including Miami-Dade and Broward. Since winning, she has distanced herself from the socialist label despite her DSA membership, denying she supports abolishing police funding or open borders. She now faces Republican Sen. Ashley Moody in November for the remainder of Marco Rubio's former Senate term, in a race forecasters favor for the GOP.

Florida's two marquee 2026 statewide races present unusual racial pairings, and candidates are handling the dynamic very differently. In the Senate race, Democrat Angie Nixon, a progressive from Jacksonville, faces Republican Ashley Moody, the former state attorney general appointed to the seat Marco Rubio vacated. In the governor's race, Republican Byron Donalds, who could become Florida's first Black governor, is running against David Jolly, a former Republican turned Democrat with strong Black voter support.

Analysts say Donalds has mostly avoided Black-specific outreach and race-focused messaging, emphasizing the economy and school choice instead, reflecting a common strategy for Black conservative candidates wary of alienating their base. Despite recent efforts to court Black voters, polling shows Jolly holding a commanding lead among Black voters. Nixon, by contrast, has leaned into discussing race directly while also courting white working-class voters with economic messaging, trailing Moody in current polling but with strategists calling her a credible underdog capable of winning with strong turnout.

Donalds has continued to draw national attention on other issues, recently criticizing far-left Florida Democrats who have called to abolish ICE amid the broader immigration debate.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis largely sat out the state's recent Republican primaries, declining to endorse a successor -- including his own lieutenant governor, who ran -- and at times criticizing Rep. Byron Donalds, who ultimately won the GOP gubernatorial primary. DeSantis skipped campaigning for candidates and did not attend the traditional post-primary unity rally the state party uses to showcase its ticket ahead of November.

His near-total silence had fueled speculation that DeSantis, term-limited and preparing to leave office, might remain disengaged through Election Day given his often tense relationships with Florida GOP figures. But there are now growing expectations that he will step up, campaigning and fundraising for Republicans down the ballot while emphasizing his own role in cementing Florida as a Republican stronghold.

For prediction markets, DeSantis's posture matters as a variable in Florida's gubernatorial race and down-ballot contests, where his endorsement, fundraising reach, and voter turnout influence could shape competitiveness heading into the general election.

Michigan's open Senate race between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul el Sayed, vying to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters, has become a focal point in the fight for Senate control. Rogers is running a well-funded, high-intensity campaign—over $133 million in advertising and millions of door knocks—marking the most serious GOP statewide operation since 2014. Michigan hasn't elected a Republican senator since 1994, but polling shows a competitive race amid broader uncertainty about midterm turnout and Democratic advantages nationally.

If Republicans lose seats elsewhere, Michigan could determine whether the GOP retains a narrow Senate majority via the vice president's tiebreaking vote, making it one of the cycle's most consequential contests.

Alex Alvarado, a GOP operative implicated in Florida's 2020 "ghost candidate" scheme, is now sending text messages suggesting Democratic attorney general candidate Jose Javier Rodríguez won't "defend reproductive freedom." The texts, funded through a newly registered committee called Lower Our Costs Now, cite a 2015 abortion bill vote Rodríguez missed on the floor but later recorded a "no" vote on afterward. Rodríguez's campaign calls the ads misleading and notes his Planned Parenthood endorsement. Alvarado, an early donor to incumbent Attorney General James Uthmeier, was previously tied to 2020 efforts—some resulting in convictions—to siphon votes from Democrats using decoy independent candidates, including a scheme that helped defeat Rodríguez's state Senate bid.

With the midterm election days away, Florida's U.S. Senate race pits Republican incumbent Ashley Moody, appointed to the seat by Gov. Ron DeSantis, against Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon, who upset Alex Vindman in the August primary. Moody is campaigning on her record as a former attorney general and prosecutor, emphasizing law enforcement, individual freedoms, and Florida's conservative policies while casting Nixon as a socialist. Nixon is focused on affordability, government corruption, and working families, accusing Moody of using office for personal enrichment. Both candidates reject the other's characterizations as the race heads into its final week before November's vote.

With under two weeks until Election Day, Florida has drawn heavy national attention, with surrogates from both parties campaigning across the state. President Trump is set to rally with Republican gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds, whose campaign faced scrutiny after briefly removing Trump references from its website, which Donalds called routine updates. Vice President JD Vance has framed the election as a choice between continuing current GOP policies or returning to Biden-era priorities. Democrats, hoping to flip seats, deployed Bernie Sanders for Senate candidate Angie Nixon against incumbent Ashley Moody, while Bill Clinton campaigned with gubernatorial candidate David Jolly. Competitive U.S. House races in Florida's 13th and 14th districts are also drawing close attention.

Florida state Rep. Angie Nixon, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, pulled off an upset win in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, defeating Alex Vindman, the retired lieutenant colonel who gained national attention testifying in Donald Trump's 2019 impeachment proceedings. Nixon campaigned on Medicare for All, a $25-per-hour federal minimum wage, a billionaire tax, taxpayer-funded childcare, free public college, student debt cancellation, and a national rent freeze. She was heavily outspent, raising under $1 million to Vindman's more than $16 million, and Vindman declined to debate her during the race.

Nixon will face Republican incumbent Sen. Ashley Moody in the November special election to complete the term of Marco Rubio, who vacated the seat to become secretary of state; Moody, the former state attorney general, was temporarily appointed to the seat in 2025 and won her own GOP primary the same night, and is currently favored to win. Elsewhere in Florida's primaries, moderate Democratic incumbents Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Jared Moskowitz won their own contests, with Moskowitz defeating a democratic socialist challenger. Nixon's victory adds to a broader wave of progressive and DSA-aligned candidates gaining traction in Democratic primaries nationally, a trend prediction markets are increasingly tracking for its potential impact on Senate control and the party's ideological direction heading into the midterms.

A Democratic-backed super PAC has poured $2 million into ads attacking Florida Sen. Ashley Moody over her record on releasing Jeffrey Epstein's files, featuring survivor Marina Lacerda questioning Moody's priorities. The ad notes Moody joined other Republicans in blocking a September 2025 measure tied to the defense budget, but omits that the Senate later approved a standalone release bill by unanimous consent. The National Republican Senatorial Committee called the ads false and misleading, saying Moody ultimately supported transparency legislation. Epstein-related ads have run in 63 congressional races nationally, totaling $76 million.

With Election Day days away, Moody faces Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon, a democratic socialist who accuses Moody of refusing to debate and of involvement in misappropriating $10 million in Medicaid funds, which Moody denies. Moody has campaigned with gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds, branding Nixon a communist, a label Nixon rejects.