Which Senate Race Will Be Closer: Montana or New Jersey?

A closely watched race in Montana's 1st congressional district has become a test of whether economic populism or culture-war messaging resonates more with voters. Democrat Sam Forstag, a wildland firefighter and former ACLU lobbyist, has focused his campaign on housing affordability and cost-of-living frustrations, while Republican Aaron Flint, a former conservative radio host, has leaned into attacks portraying Forstag as a "radical" on gender and sexual orientation issues. President Trump campaigned in the state for Flint this week, underscoring the race's national profile.

Polling shows the contest within a few points either way, and the Cook Political Report recently shifted its rating from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican." A heated debate this week saw Flint brand Forstag "Phony Forstag" over his past LGBTQ advocacy work, while Forstag kept his focus on housing costs, private equity's role in the rental market, and wage stagnation. Montana Democrats argue the state's independent streak favors pocketbook messaging over national identity politics, making the race a bellwether for broader midterm strategy debates.

Montana Republican congressional candidate Aaron Flint, a retired lieutenant colonel and fifth-generation Montanan, has sharpened his attacks on Democratic opponent Sam Forstag ahead of the race for the state's U.S. House seat. Speaking on Breitbart News Saturday, Flint called Forstag "an absolute phony," citing his past work as a lobbyist for the ACLU, Planned Parenthood, and the cities of Missoula and Bozeman, where he supported higher property taxes and a state sales tax. Flint also criticized Forstag's past LGBTQ advocacy work and ties to progressive figures. Flint framed the contest as part of a broader Democratic push, backed by national money, to flip traditionally conservative districts, predicting Republicans will retain House control despite the effort.

Montana has enacted the nation's most expansive "right-to-try" law, letting any resident—not just terminally ill patients—access experimental drugs that have only completed Phase I trials showing basic safety, without proven effectiveness. This breaks sharply from federal right-to-try rules, including those signed during Trump's first term, which require patients to have exhausted approved treatments.

Biotech startups see Montana as a workaround to the FDA's costly approval process. Infinita, a company tied to a deregulated zone in Honduras and led by CEO Niklas Anzinger, runs the only review board approving treatments so far, charging companies a application fee; it approved its first treatment last month. Critics, including patient advocates, warn of conflicts of interest and unproven claims reaching vulnerable patients. The program's future depends on whether the FDA intervenes—an open question, especially with HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has touted his own use of unapproved treatments, expressing support for expanded access. FDA officials met with industry and patient groups in June but gave no commitment on enforcement.

New Jersey holds its general election on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with voter registration closed as of October 13 and mail-in ballot requests due by October 27. Polls are open 6 a.m. to 8 p.m. statewide. Top races include the U.S. Senate contest, where Democratic incumbent Cory Booker faces Republican Justin Murphy and several third-party and write-in candidates. All 12 of New Jersey's House seats are also on the ballot, with the 2nd Congressional District drawing particular attention as Republican incumbent Jeff Van Drew, who switched parties in 2019, defends his seat against Democratic challenger Zack Mullock, mayor of Cape May, and independent Ramon Mora Jr.

The Republican National Committee has filed a federal lawsuit against New Jersey election officials, including Lt. Gov. Dale Caldwell and the secretary of state, seeking data on noncitizens registered to vote. State officials have acknowledged roughly 6,600 noncitizen registrations, though the Trump administration estimates the true figure could be 35,000 or higher. Rep. Tom Kean has filed a separate suit as a New Jersey constituent.

Gov. Mikie Sherrill has refused to turn over voter data to federal officials, citing privacy concerns for state residents. A spokesman for Sherrill said Republicans have made similar requests in other states more than twenty times without success in court. The RNC had asked New Jersey to explain by September how noncitizens were added to voter rolls, what removal efforts are underway, and who is responsible for oversight. The dispute comes as both parties intensify efforts around voter roll accuracy and election administration ahead of the 2026 midterms.

A New Jersey Superior Court judge cleared the way Tuesday for the Ocean County Board of Elections to continue inquiries into the voting eligibility of dozens of Bay Head residents, denying an emergency injunction sought by the ACLU of New Jersey on behalf of the League of Women Voters. The plaintiffs argued the challenge process, aimed at registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters whose tax bills are mailed out of town, amounted to a politically motivated purge during the pre-election quiet period. The board countered that it is simply fulfilling its duty to verify domicile status.

A tense public meeting followed the ruling, with the evenly split board's Republican chairman George Gilmore and Democratic secretary Wyatt Earp clashing over a list of 39 flagged voters submitted by a local GOP official that included no Republicans. Several voters have already been removed or asked to be removed from the rolls. Gilmore drew sharp backlash, including for a joking remark about immigration enforcement being "on call" at the polls. The ACLU and League of Women Voters are weighing an appeal.

Vermont election officials removed roughly 900 people from the state's voter rolls after an audit found they had been mistakenly registered through the state's "motor voter" program, which automatically registers people to vote when applying for a driver's license. Officials said the errors, attributed to human mistakes during procedure changes and IT upgrades over 25 years, mistakenly sent about 20,000 names to the secretary of state's office despite those people having opted out. Most had registered elsewhere and remained on the rolls; about 900 had not and were removed. None of the affected individuals had ever cast a ballot, officials said, so no past elections were affected.

Democratic Secretary of State Sarah Copeland Hanzas and Republican Governor Phil Scott jointly disclosed the issue, framing their transparency as a model amid national scrutiny of election administration. The cleanup, prompted partly by a similar scandal in New Jersey involving noncitizen registrations, comes as courts weigh President Trump's push to restrict mail-in voting ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms. It remains unclear how many of the removed registrants were ineligible due to citizenship status. Officials defended Vermont's mail balloting system as secure despite the disclosed errors.

The list of Republicans weighing 2028 presidential bids is growing as President Trump's approval ratings decline and Democrats appear favored for a strong showing in the November midterms. Sen. John Kennedy recently joined a field that already includes former Gov. Chris Christie, Sen. Rand Paul, Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Ted Cruz, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and possibly Texas Gov. Greg Abbott. Some hopefuls are positioning themselves to inherit the MAGA base, including Donald Trump Jr., who denies interest but polls strongly among hypothetical candidates. Others, like Christie, are distancing themselves from Trump's legacy, arguing Vice President J.D. Vance would be hurt by association with an unpopular administration.

Polling shows Vance still leads the GOP field but has lost ground, with Trump Jr. gaining support. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also draw notable backing, while Nikki Haley says she won't run. Cruz and Vance have publicly sparred, with most contenders waiting on midterm results before deciding.