Florida’s 18th District House Race: Who Will Win?

An AI-manipulated image showing Iowa Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand wearing a large mask and face shield has circulated widely on social media since at least July, amplified in a September 1 Facebook post by Republican nominee Zach Lahn. Lahn shared the image alongside clips from a podcast appearance in which he criticized Sand, Iowa's state auditor, as an "East Coast elitist."

Fact-checkers traced the photo to an unaltered original published by the Iowa Capital Dispatch in July, showing Sand without any mask or face shield while meeting cancer-advocacy group representatives in Des Moines. OpenAI's image-verification tool detected a SynthID watermark in the altered version, confirming AI manipulation. Sand's campaign called the image fake.

Lahn, who has aligned with vaccine-skeptic rhetoric and attacked Sand over past pandemic-era mask support, is locked in a tight race to succeed term-limited Republican Governor Kim Reynolds in the reliably red state.

Data centers are drawing unusual bipartisan scrutiny as their rapid expansion to support artificial intelligence collides with local concerns over energy use, water consumption, and community impact. While debates over technology and infrastructure often split along party lines, opposition to large-scale data center projects is emerging among both Democrats and Republicans, complicating assumptions about who supports or resists the buildout.

A proposal by Google to site a data center in Hermantown, Minnesota, near Lake Superior's ample water supply, illustrates the trend. Despite the area's Republican lean, skepticism toward the project has not broken down neatly along partisan lines. Similar patterns have surfaced elsewhere, including among conservative legislative candidates in Wisconsin's Republican primary, several of whom favored local control over data center siting rather than outright support.

The dynamic matters for policymakers and industry alike, as the AI sector's massive infrastructure needs increasingly depend on winning over skeptical communities regardless of political affiliation, potentially reshaping how future data center projects are permitted and sited nationwide.

Florida's 19th Congressional District, a reliably Republican Southwest Florida seat being vacated by Byron Donalds as he runs for governor, holds its primary Tuesday with an unusually crowded field of ten Republicans. Several contenders arrived after political careers elsewhere: Madison Cawthorn (North Carolina), Chris Collins (New York, pardoned by Trump after an insider-trading conviction), Catalina Lauf and Jim Oberweis (both from Illinois), and Ola Hawatmeh (New York). Local media figure Jim Schwartzel and Jan. 6 defendant John Strand, also pardoned by Trump, are among the other candidates. Much of the race has centered on questions of "Florida authenticity," with candidates accusing rivals of being carpetbaggers despite many having shallow ties to the district themselves.

Trump endorsed Lauf in the campaign's final days, citing her prior role as a Commerce Department adviser during his first term. She has framed herself as an outsider best positioned to represent Trump-aligned voters, while rivals like Oberweis point to decades of Florida residency as their claim to legitimacy. The winner will be heavily favored in the general election given the district's strong Republican lean.

New Hampshire held primary elections Tuesday to pick nominees for Congress, governor and the state Legislature, with Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's retirement reshaping the ballot. Rep. Chris Pappas led a five-way Democratic Senate field that included progressive challenger Karishma Manzur, a research scientist and democratic socialist whose late surge, fueled by criticism of Pappas' pro-Israel donor support and his "present" vote on restricting arms sales to Israel, narrowed his once-commanding lead despite his large fundraising advantage and Shaheen's endorsement. On the Republican side, John Sununu, endorsed by President Trump over rival Scott Brown, held a wide edge among eight candidates; both Sununu and Brown are former senators previously defeated by Shaheen. The seat is one of a handful nationally that could help decide Senate control, with Democrats needing a net gain of four seats.

Pappas' departure from the 1st District opened a crowded race, with Stefany Shaheen (Jeanne Shaheen's daughter) and Maura Sullivan leading a nine-person Democratic field; Republicans chose among five candidates including Trump-endorsed businessman Anthony DiLorenzo and repeat candidate Hollie Noveletsky. In the 2nd District, Democratic Rep. Maggie Goodlander faced a primary challenge from state legislator Paige Beauchemin, while Republicans chose from candidates including repeat nominee Lily Tang Williams. Gov. Kelly Ayotte easily advanced toward a second term against two Republican rivals, favored against unopposed Democrat Cinde Warmington. Winners have eight weeks to campaign before the November 3 general election, as New Hampshire shifts future primaries to June starting in 2026.

With about four weeks until Election Day, Florida's 13th congressional district remains one of the cycle's most closely watched races. Recent polling from Fox News and Inside Elections shows the seat shifting from "likely Republican" to "leaning Republican," signaling a tighter contest than previously expected.

Republican incumbent Anna Paulina Luna, who has held the seat since 2022, is campaigning on an anti-corruption record, citing her push to release Epstein-related files and efforts to ban congressional insider trading. Democratic challenger Leela Gray, a retired brigadier general, argues Luna's trading-ban proposal is incomplete and is calling for a broader ban on stock trading, prediction-market betting, and donor-linked investments across all three branches of government. Gray has accused Luna of conflicts of interest tied to a donor's oil company, while Luna has countered that Gray has downplayed her own financial ties to pharmaceutical and banking interests. Both campaigns deny the other's claims as voters prepare to decide the race.

Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) won her party's primary in Florida's newly drawn 20th Congressional District, a plurality-Black seat centered on Broward County, after her old 25th District seat was eliminated in Republican-led mid-decade redistricting ordered by Gov. Ron DeSantis. Rather than run in a new, whiter district that favored Trump, she chose to compete in the 20th, drawing criticism from local Black leaders, the Broward Black Democratic Caucus, and Congressional Black Caucus members who saw her candidacy as a threat to Black political representation already weakened by the Supreme Court's rollback of the Voting Rights Act; Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries declined to endorse her.

Wasserman Schultz defeated a divided field of four Black challengers — former Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, rapper Luther "Luke" Campbell, Elijah Manley, and Dale Holness — leaning on seniority, fundraising, and an Appropriations Committee seat while her rivals split the opposing vote. Her win makes her the only white House member representing a plurality or majority-Black district heading into 2027, following the elimination of Rep. Steve Cohen's Memphis district by Tennessee Republicans. The broader Florida redistricting effort cut four Democratic-leaning seats ahead of the midterms.

Mike Beltran secured the Republican nomination for Florida's 14th Congressional District, defeating state Republican Kevin Steele and other primary contenders. Beltran, a former Florida House member, will now face longtime Democratic incumbent Kathy Castor in November's general election.

Beltran celebrated the primary win with supporters in Tampa, crediting a grassroots campaign and his record as a state representative for the victory. He said the campaign now shifts focus entirely to the general election matchup against Castor, a fixture in Hillsborough County's congressional delegation. The race adds another closely watched contest to Florida's House lineup as both parties look toward November, with control of individual seats carrying broader implications for the overall balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Florida's primaries produced a mixed picture for both parties ahead of November's general election. Rep. Byron Donalds won the Republican gubernatorial nomination with Trump's endorsement and a large financial edge, beating Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, former House Speaker Paul Renner and newcomer James Fishback despite Gov. Ron DeSantis's public misgivings; Donalds would become Florida's first Black governor if elected. Former Republican congressman David Jolly, running with Gwen Graham as his lieutenant governor pick, won the Democratic nomination over state Rep. Dotie Joseph and others, pitching himself as a centrist who wants to end the culture wars. The two will meet in November to succeed the term-limited DeSantis, in a state where Democrats haven't won the governorship in over 30 years.

Progressive state Rep. Angie Nixon defeated establishment-backed Alex Vindman for the Senate Democratic nomination despite being outspent; she faces Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, who won her primary with Trump's backing, in the special election for Marco Rubio's former seat. Incumbents Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Jared Moskowitz turned back challengers, including Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, in redrawn districts under Florida's new Republican-favored congressional map. Trump-endorsed Cory Mills lost his House primary amid domestic violence allegations, while far-right figures Dan Bilzerian and Madison Cawthorn were also defeated, alongside Rep. Randy Fine's contentious win.

Florida Rep. Cory Mills lost his Republican primary in the state's 7th Congressional District to former TV anchor Ryan Elijah, ending his bid for a third term. Mills's campaign was marked by allegations of sexual misconduct, a court injunction from a former girlfriend, a House Ethics Committee investigation into misconduct and campaign finance claims, and questions about his military record. President Trump had given Mills his "Complete and Total Endorsement" in February, but later distanced himself by excluding Mills from a round of congressional endorsements. Florida incumbents Anna Paulina Luna and Mike Haridopolos, along with Gov. Ron DeSantis, backed Elijah instead.

Elijah will face Democrat and military veteran Bale Dalton in November. The district is expected to remain Republican-leaning under Florida's newly redrawn congressional map, though analysts note the race could factor into broader midterm dynamics as Democrats are currently favored to retake the House majority.

Florida Rep. Randy Fine (R) easily defeated far-right influencer Dan Bilzerian in Tuesday's Republican primary for the state's 6th Congressional District, taking roughly 57% of the vote to Bilzerian's 18% with most ballots counted. The race drew national attention after Bilzerian ran a campaign ad using antisemitic slurs against Fine, who is Jewish, and questioning whether Adolf Hitler's views deserved reassessment. The ad, which used AI-altered imagery of Fine, prompted a rare joint condemnation from House Speaker Mike Johnson and Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

Fine, who won a special election in April 2025 to succeed Mike Waltz, has himself faced criticism for inflammatory remarks, including comments about nuclear strikes on Gaza and disparaging statements about Muslims and New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani. He is heavily favored to win the general election in November in the safely Republican district covering Florida's Eastern Coast, including Daytona Beach.