California’s 22nd District House Race: Who Will Win

Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) faces progressive Democrat Randy Villegas in California's 22nd Congressional District, one of the most closely watched House races in the country and a potential factor in the battle for control of Congress. Valadao has won the Central Valley swing district in six of the last seven elections despite a Democratic voter registration edge, but faces added pressure this cycle after Proposition 50 redistricting slightly increased the district's Democratic lean. He has also drawn criticism for his deciding vote on H.R. 1, a federal policy bill expected to strip healthcare coverage from millions, and for his ties to President Trump.

Villegas, a college professor and school board trustee backed by Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, defeated moderate Democrat Jasmeet Bains in the primary. He rejects corporate PAC money and campaigns on Medicare for All and affordability issues. Valadao holds a larger overall fundraising and cash advantage, though Villegas has out-raised him in recent filing periods. Analysts are split, with Inside Elections rating the seat "tilt Republican" and Sabato's Crystal Ball calling it "leans Democratic."

A printing vendor error caused nearly 7,800 voters in Tulare County to receive duplicate vote-by-mail ballots ahead of the Nov. 3 election, prompting confused calls to the registrar's office. ProVote Solutions, the county's longtime ballot printer, accepted responsibility and mailed correction notices instructing voters to destroy extra ballots. A similar mailing error affected 160 confidential voters in Imperial County. Officials say existing safeguards — barcode tracking, signature verification, and duplicate-vote flagging — prevent double counting. The incidents, in a competitive Central Valley congressional district, quickly drew conspiracy claims on social media amid heightened distrust of mail voting fueled by President Trump's unproven fraud allegations and his blocked effort to restrict mail-in ballots.

A new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, finds Trump's approval among California Republicans has fallen to 76%, down from 83% last year, with only 44% saying they "strongly" support his performance, down from 57% in August 2025. Pollster Mark DiCamillo said the softer numbers could reduce Republican turnout in the state's few competitive congressional races, while UC Berkeley's G. Cristina Mora suggested Trump's efforts to nationalize the midterms could instead galvanize Democratic voters.

The decline comes as California's redrawn congressional map, approved by voters last year at Gov. Gavin Newsom's urging, leaves Republicans with just four safe seats out of 52. Cook Political Report rates only one true toss-up: the 22nd District held by Rep. David Valadao, who faces progressive Democrat Randy Villegas. Two other GOP-held or contested seats, the 48th and 13th Districts, lean Democratic. The poll also found 70% of California voters disapprove of Trump's Iran policy and believe his immigration approach hurts the state's economy, including roughly one in five Republicans on each measure.

A 2-year-old boy was accidentally shot in the leg over the weekend at a home in Pixley, a small Tulare County community in California's Central Valley, after an adult in the house was cleaning a firearm, according to the Tulare County Sheriff's Office. Deputies responded to the home shortly before 11:30 a.m. Sunday, administered emergency aid and had the child transported to a hospital; his condition has not been confirmed.

The Sheriff's Office is asking anyone with information to come forward. Federal data cited alongside the report shows that from 2003 to 2021, the CDC recorded 1,262 unintentional firearm deaths among children, with nearly a third of victims under age 5 and about 7% of cases involving a gun being loaded, unloaded, or cleaned at the time.

Shasta County's Board of Supervisors has canceled its contract with Dominion Voting Systems and is weighing a switch to hand-counted ballots, driven by unproven fraud claims embraced by the board's hard-right majority. MyPillow CEO and prominent election denier Mike Lindell praised the move, calling on other counties to follow suit, and offered to help fund any resulting lawsuits after speaking with a Shasta supervisor. Kern County supervisors similarly fielded hours of testimony from residents alleging the county's Dominion system was rigged.

Dominion, one of the largest U.S. voting equipment suppliers and currently in use in 41 of California's 58 counties, said the Shasta decision reflects lasting damage from false claims that spread after President Trump's 2020 election loss. Shasta's clerk and registrar said the county now effectively lacks a voting system. The dispute underscores how 2020 election-fraud narratives continue to shape local election administration well beyond the original battleground states.

Incumbent Rep. Doris Matsui, 81, faces the toughest reelection fight of her 21-year House tenure from progressive Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang, 41, in California's redrawn 7th Congressional District. Vang narrowly led the June primary with about 31.2% of the vote to Matsui's 29.1%, edging out Republican Zachariah Wooden for the second runoff spot in the solidly Democratic seat.

Redrawn under Proposition 50, the district now stretches from El Dorado Hills and Placerville south to Lodi and Linden, absorbing more GOP-leaning El Dorado County suburbs while losing West Sacramento and other areas. Matsui, who succeeded her late husband Robert in the seat, has secured backing from Gov. Gavin Newsom, Sen. Alex Padilla and Nancy Pelosi, and holds a large fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage. Vang, a Hmong refugees' daughter and council progressive known for shifting police funding toward youth and homeless services, has built her campaign on Medicare-For-All, affordable housing and rejecting corporate PAC money, drawing support from outside progressive groups.

A Los Angeles-area state Senate race between labor-backed West Hollywood City Councilmember John Erickson and business-supported media consultant Brian Goldsmith has become California's most expensive state Senate general election contest this cycle, driven by heavy outside spending. The district, covering Malibu, Santa Monica, the Pacific Palisades, Beverly Hills and West Hollywood, carries a 12-year term limit as both seek to succeed termed-out Sen. Ben Allen.

Business groups have targeted Erickson with attack spending, while tech-linked donors and Goldsmith's own personal funds have boosted his campaign; labor groups opposing Goldsmith have spent far less. Nancy Pelosi recently endorsed Goldsmith. Ads focus on affordability, housing, public safety and partisan loyalty, reflecting a broader business-labor struggle over California Democratic Party direction.

A new book by journalist Miriam Pawel, "California Dreams: The Making and Remaking of the University of California," chronicles the history of the UC system from its 1868 founding through its growth into a $60 billion enterprise spanning 10 campuses, six health systems and three national laboratories. The book frames California's relationship with UC as an intimate, often contentious family dynamic, tracing recurring battles over the university's identity across generations.

Pawel revisits major flashpoints including 1950s ideological purges during the Red Scare, the 1960s Free Speech Movement clashes, and the 1990s fight over Proposition 209, which banned affirmative action and reduced diversity across UC campuses. The review argues UC's core tension lies in being both selective — Berkeley admits fewer than 7,000 of over 130,000 applicants annually — and a vehicle for social mobility. The piece notes current disputes over DEI, free speech and federal funding pressure from the Trump administration echo these long-standing conflicts, suggesting institutional resilience remains UC's defining trait.