Who Will Win California’s 13th Congressional District House Seat

Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) faces progressive Democrat Randy Villegas in California's 22nd Congressional District, one of the most closely watched House races in the country and a potential factor in the battle for control of Congress. Valadao has won the Central Valley swing district in six of the last seven elections despite a Democratic voter registration edge, but faces added pressure this cycle after Proposition 50 redistricting slightly increased the district's Democratic lean. He has also drawn criticism for his deciding vote on H.R. 1, a federal policy bill expected to strip healthcare coverage from millions, and for his ties to President Trump.

Villegas, a college professor and school board trustee backed by Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, defeated moderate Democrat Jasmeet Bains in the primary. He rejects corporate PAC money and campaigns on Medicare for All and affordability issues. Valadao holds a larger overall fundraising and cash advantage, though Villegas has out-raised him in recent filing periods. Analysts are split, with Inside Elections rating the seat "tilt Republican" and Sabato's Crystal Ball calling it "leans Democratic."

Incumbent Rep. Doris Matsui, 81, faces the toughest reelection fight of her 21-year House tenure from progressive Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang, 41, in California's redrawn 7th Congressional District. Vang narrowly led the June primary with about 31.2% of the vote to Matsui's 29.1%, edging out Republican Zachariah Wooden for the second runoff spot in the solidly Democratic seat.

Redrawn under Proposition 50, the district now stretches from El Dorado Hills and Placerville south to Lodi and Linden, absorbing more GOP-leaning El Dorado County suburbs while losing West Sacramento and other areas. Matsui, who succeeded her late husband Robert in the seat, has secured backing from Gov. Gavin Newsom, Sen. Alex Padilla and Nancy Pelosi, and holds a large fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage. Vang, a Hmong refugees' daughter and council progressive known for shifting police funding toward youth and homeless services, has built her campaign on Medicare-For-All, affordable housing and rejecting corporate PAC money, drawing support from outside progressive groups.

A new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, finds Trump's approval among California Republicans has fallen to 76%, down from 83% last year, with only 44% saying they "strongly" support his performance, down from 57% in August 2025. Pollster Mark DiCamillo said the softer numbers could reduce Republican turnout in the state's few competitive congressional races, while UC Berkeley's G. Cristina Mora suggested Trump's efforts to nationalize the midterms could instead galvanize Democratic voters.

The decline comes as California's redrawn congressional map, approved by voters last year at Gov. Gavin Newsom's urging, leaves Republicans with just four safe seats out of 52. Cook Political Report rates only one true toss-up: the 22nd District held by Rep. David Valadao, who faces progressive Democrat Randy Villegas. Two other GOP-held or contested seats, the 48th and 13th Districts, lean Democratic. The poll also found 70% of California voters disapprove of Trump's Iran policy and believe his immigration approach hurts the state's economy, including roughly one in five Republicans on each measure.

A Los Angeles-area state Senate race between labor-backed West Hollywood City Councilmember John Erickson and business-supported media consultant Brian Goldsmith has become California's most expensive state Senate general election contest this cycle, driven by heavy outside spending. The district, covering Malibu, Santa Monica, the Pacific Palisades, Beverly Hills and West Hollywood, carries a 12-year term limit as both seek to succeed termed-out Sen. Ben Allen.

Business groups have targeted Erickson with attack spending, while tech-linked donors and Goldsmith's own personal funds have boosted his campaign; labor groups opposing Goldsmith have spent far less. Nancy Pelosi recently endorsed Goldsmith. Ads focus on affordability, housing, public safety and partisan loyalty, reflecting a broader business-labor struggle over California Democratic Party direction.

New California Department of Justice data show a Turner's Outdoorsman location in Bakersfield linked to 83 crime guns traced by law enforcement from 2023 to 2025, the most among active dealers in any of the state's 10 largest cities. Combined with the prior tenant of that storefront, 183 guns sold there were later recovered as crime guns—more than the top five dealers combined in Los Angeles, Oakland, or San Diego. Statewide, the Turner's chain, California's largest gun retailer, was linked to more than 8,500 crime guns over the period, a share disproportionate to its roughly 22% of sales. Its guns also turned up at crime scenes faster after purchase than those from other dealers, a pattern regulators associate with trafficking.

Officials including L.A. County Supervisor Janice Hahn and Sacramento Mayor Kevin McCarty have called for scrutiny of the chain's practices, while gun-safety group Brady United has pressed for investigation. Turner's has defended its compliance record; state inspectors flagged a possible straw-purchase violation at its San Bernardino store, the state's most crime-gun-linked dealer.

Several California congressional primaries pit establishment Democrats against insurgent challengers, a dynamic that could complicate Hakeem Jeffries' hold on House Democratic leadership if he seeks the speakership in a future majority. Under California's top-two primary system, some races feature Democrat-vs-Democrat matchups between incumbents and younger, further-left or anti-establishment rivals.

Rep. Mike Thompson faces venture capitalist Eric Jones, who says he wouldn't commit to backing Jeffries as speaker. Rep. Doris Matsui, who trailed in the June primary, faces progressive Sacramento Councilmember Mai Vang, who has said she won't support Jeffries. In the race to succeed Nancy Pelosi, state Sen. Scott Wiener backs Jeffries while rival Connie Chan says any speaker candidate must "earn" her vote. Rep. Aisha Wahab, who already defied party leadership once, faces Melissa Hernandez in a rematch. Rep. Jimmy Gomez, under a House Ethics Committee investigation he denies, faces progressive challenger Angela Gonzales-Torres. Many challengers are aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America, signaling a potential bloc of leadership skeptics if elected.

California voters head to the polls in November to decide statewide and local races alongside 14 ballot propositions, including a closely watched "billionaires tax" measure and a recall-process reform. San Diego County's voter guide outlines a packed slate of contests, with voter pamphlets mailed in late September and ballots beginning to arrive October 5.

Key federal races include five competitive U.S. House districts (48–52), pitting incumbents and challengers from both parties after redistricting reshaped several seats. State Senate and Assembly races feature multiple incumbents defending seats, while the California State Board of Equalization's District 4 race pits a local water official against a sitting state senator.

Locally, San Diego County voters will also choose county supervisors, school board members, and city officials across numerous municipalities including San Diego, Chula Vista, Carlsbad, Escondido, Oceanside, and others, alongside mayoral races and special district seats covering healthcare, water, and community college boards. The wide-ranging ballot reflects a highly competitive election cycle across Southern California.