CA-09 House winner?
Total Volume
$27.3k
Kalshi $7.1k · Polymarket $20.2k
Leading Market
Josh Harder
Kalshi 99% · Polymarket 99%
Josh Harder Volume
$24.5k
Kalshi $6k · Polymarket $18.5k
Josh Harder 24h Change
-2.00%
Kalshi +1.00% · Polymarket -2.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh HarderDemocratic Party | 98.9¢ | 7.0% |
|
99.0¢ | 5% |
|
| John McBrideRepublican Party | 2.7¢ | 7.0% |
|
2.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
Harder and McBride face off again in California’s redrawn 9th District
PN Team • 1 month ago
Democratic Rep. Josh Harder faces Republican John McBride in the general election for California's 9th Congressional District, a rematch after McBride failed to advance past the primary in 2024. Harder, first elected in 2018 and representing the 9th District since 2022 redistricting, won 60% of the June primary vote to McBride's 23%.
The district, centered in the northern San Joaquin Valley with parts of Contra Costa County, was redrawn ahead of this cycle to favor Harder's reelection, trimming areas like Lodi and Stockton while adding Antioch. It was previously one of two California districts to back Donald Trump in 2024 while also electing a Democrat to Congress.
Harder, a former venture capitalist, has focused on eliminating the gas tax, promoting alternative energy projects, and lowering healthcare costs, including prescription drug prices. McBride, a longtime strength and conditioning coach and Central Valley resident, is emphasizing affordability, a Make America Healthy Again-aligned healthcare approach, agriculture support, and tougher crime penalties.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is mentioned in passing regarding his 2024 performance in the district, a neutral-to-slightly-negative framing given the district's split voting pattern.
- Democratic Party (United States) Harder's Democratic affiliation is noted factually in a balanced electoral context.
- Stockton, California Stockton is mentioned neutrally as an area trimmed from the redrawn district.
- California California is mentioned as the state setting for the district without evaluative content.
- Republican Party (United States) McBride's Republican affiliation is mentioned factually without particular favor or criticism.
- San Joaquin Valley San Joaquin Valley is mentioned neutrally as the district's location.
- United States Congress Congress is referenced only as the office being contested.
Related Events
Related Events
Elections
Valadao and Villegas face off in closely watched California 22nd District race
PN Team • 1 month ago
Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) faces progressive Democrat Randy Villegas in California's 22nd Congressional District, one of the most closely watched House races in the country and a potential factor in the battle for control of Congress. Valadao has won the Central Valley swing district in six of the last seven elections despite a Democratic voter registration edge, but faces added pressure this cycle after Proposition 50 redistricting slightly increased the district's Democratic lean. He has also drawn criticism for his deciding vote on H.R. 1, a federal policy bill expected to strip healthcare coverage from millions, and for his ties to President Trump.
Villegas, a college professor and school board trustee backed by Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, defeated moderate Democrat Jasmeet Bains in the primary. He rejects corporate PAC money and campaigns on Medicare for All and affordability issues. Valadao holds a larger overall fundraising and cash advantage, though Villegas has out-raised him in recent filing periods. Analysts are split, with Inside Elections rating the seat "tilt Republican" and Sabato's Crystal Ball calling it "leans Democratic."
Sources:
Sentiment
- David Valadao Portrayed facing criticism for his H.R. 1 vote and Trump ties despite electoral resilience.
- Donald Trump Valadao's ties to Trump are cited as a source of criticism against him.
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Noted as a progressive endorser of Villegas, a mild positive association for some audiences.
- Bernie Sanders Cited as backing Villegas, a modestly favorable association.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as Villegas's party with a voter registration edge, described neutrally.
- California California is mentioned as the state context for the district race.
- Central Valley (California) Central Valley is named as the swing region of the district.
- Republican Party (United States) Referenced as Valadao's party affiliation in a factual context.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned neutrally as the body whose control is at stake.
- United States House of Representatives The House is referenced factually as the chamber of the contested seat.
Related Events
Related Events
Elections
Matsui and Vang wage tight Democratic primary battle for California’s 7th District
PN Team • 1 month ago
Incumbent Rep. Doris Matsui, 81, faces the toughest reelection fight of her 21-year House tenure from progressive Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang, 41, in California's redrawn 7th Congressional District. Vang narrowly led the June primary with about 31.2% of the vote to Matsui's 29.1%, edging out Republican Zachariah Wooden for the second runoff spot in the solidly Democratic seat.
Redrawn under Proposition 50, the district now stretches from El Dorado Hills and Placerville south to Lodi and Linden, absorbing more GOP-leaning El Dorado County suburbs while losing West Sacramento and other areas. Matsui, who succeeded her late husband Robert in the seat, has secured backing from Gov. Gavin Newsom, Sen. Alex Padilla and Nancy Pelosi, and holds a large fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage. Vang, a Hmong refugees' daughter and council progressive known for shifting police funding toward youth and homeless services, has built her campaign on Medicare-For-All, affordable housing and rejecting corporate PAC money, drawing support from outside progressive groups.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Gavin Newsom Newsom is mentioned favorably as a high-profile endorser backing Matsui.
- Doris Matsui Matsui is portrayed as facing her toughest reelection fight, a mild negative framing despite her endorsements and fundraising edge.
- Democratic Party (United States) The seat is described as a solidly Democratic district contested by two Democrats in a primary.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican candidate Wooden is mentioned only as being edged out, a minor tangential reference.
- California California is mentioned factually as the state containing the district.
- Sacramento, California Sacramento is referenced factually via Vang's council role and district geography.
- United States Congress Congress is referenced factually as the body Matsui serves in.
- United States House of Representatives The House of Representatives is mentioned factually regarding Matsui's tenure.
Related Events
Related Events
Elections
Trump approval slips among California Republicans, poll finds
PN Team • 1 month ago
A new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, finds Trump's approval among California Republicans has fallen to 76%, down from 83% last year, with only 44% saying they "strongly" support his performance, down from 57% in August 2025. Pollster Mark DiCamillo said the softer numbers could reduce Republican turnout in the state's few competitive congressional races, while UC Berkeley's G. Cristina Mora suggested Trump's efforts to nationalize the midterms could instead galvanize Democratic voters.
The decline comes as California's redrawn congressional map, approved by voters last year at Gov. Gavin Newsom's urging, leaves Republicans with just four safe seats out of 52. Cook Political Report rates only one true toss-up: the 22nd District held by Rep. David Valadao, who faces progressive Democrat Randy Villegas. Two other GOP-held or contested seats, the 48th and 13th Districts, lean Democratic. The poll also found 70% of California voters disapprove of Trump's Iran policy and believe his immigration approach hurts the state's economy, including roughly one in five Republicans on each measure.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump The story centers on Trump's declining approval and disapproval of his Iran and immigration policies even among his own party.
- Republican Party (United States) The article highlights softening Republican support for Trump and a shrinking number of safe GOP seats in California.
- Gavin Newsom Newsom is credited with urging the redistricting effort that now favors Democrats.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats appear positioned to benefit politically from redistricting and Trump's declining approval among Republicans.
- Iran Iran is mentioned tangentially as the subject of a Trump policy that voters disapprove of.
- California California is the factual setting for the poll and political analysis.
- David Valadao Valadao is factually noted as holding the sole toss-up district.
Related Events
Related Events
Elections
California State Senate Race Becomes Costliest of the Cycle
PN Team • 1 day ago
A Los Angeles-area state Senate race between labor-backed West Hollywood City Councilmember John Erickson and business-supported media consultant Brian Goldsmith has become California's most expensive state Senate general election contest this cycle, driven by heavy outside spending. The district, covering Malibu, Santa Monica, the Pacific Palisades, Beverly Hills and West Hollywood, carries a 12-year term limit as both seek to succeed termed-out Sen. Ben Allen.
Business groups have targeted Erickson with attack spending, while tech-linked donors and Goldsmith's own personal funds have boosted his campaign; labor groups opposing Goldsmith have spent far less. Nancy Pelosi recently endorsed Goldsmith. Ads focus on affordability, housing, public safety and partisan loyalty, reflecting a broader business-labor struggle over California Democratic Party direction.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) Referenced as the party whose internal business-labor struggle frames the race.
- California Referenced factually as the state where the race occurs.
Related Events
Related Events
Elections
California Deploys Election Attorneys Amid Federal Dispute Over Midterm Voting
PN Team • 1 day ago
Gov. Gavin Newsom and the California Democratic Party are sending 134 election law attorneys, 1,000 voter protection volunteers, and 54 hotline operators to five congressional districts for the midterms, after the White House accused the state of allowing noncitizens to vote illegally. The move follows a federal judge blocking the Justice Department from forcing California to set aside 20,000 ballots it alleged were fraudulently cast. Newsom called the lawsuit a last-minute attempt to undermine Democratic midterm gains, predicting the party will easily retake the House. The targeted districts include several redrawn last year under a Newsom-backed redistricting initiative favoring Democrats.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Gavin Newsom Portrayed as defending the state against a federal lawsuit and confidently predicting political gains.
- Democratic Party (United States) Portrayed as favored by a redistricting initiative and poised to retake the House.
- California Central to a factual account of a federal-state dispute over election administration.
Related Events
Related Events
Local & State
California high-speed rail agency falls short on 2026 legislative agenda
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
California's High-Speed Rail Authority secured only one of the several legislative priorities it said were needed to keep the Merced-to-Bakersfield rail segment on schedule. Gov. Gavin Newsom signed Senate Bill 1425, letting the authority issue permits to utilities, local governments and developers on authority-controlled land, but broader proposals—faster environmental reviews, expedited court dispute resolution, sales tax exemptions on construction materials, and new authority to tap local tax revenue near the rail line—stalled or were never formally introduced. Local officials strongly opposed the tax-revenue idea, calling it a raid on funds needed for services and road repairs.
A separate bill from Sen. Henry Stern to let the authority spend more state climate funds outside the Central Valley segment died in committee, as did a utility-relocation bill from Sen. Scott Wiener. The authority and lawmakers traded blame over the losses. The project, now estimated to cost $126-231 billion with full buildout by 2040, depends on $1 billion in annual state carbon-auction funding that could shrink under pending climate rule changes, adding further uncertainty to its timeline.
Sources:
Sentiment
- California California is the setting of the project's legislative and funding struggles, a mildly negative but mostly factual context.
- Gavin Newsom Newsom is noted neutrally for signing one bill, a minor procedural action.
- United States Senate The Senate is referenced only tangentially through bills introduced by individual senators.
- Central Valley (California) Central Valley is referenced as the segment under construction without added reputational framing.
Related Events
Related Events
Elections
Printing error sends duplicate mail ballots to thousands of California voters
PN Team • 1 week ago
A printing vendor error caused nearly 7,800 voters in Tulare County to receive duplicate vote-by-mail ballots ahead of the Nov. 3 election, prompting confused calls to the registrar's office. ProVote Solutions, the county's longtime ballot printer, accepted responsibility and mailed correction notices instructing voters to destroy extra ballots. A similar mailing error affected 160 confidential voters in Imperial County. Officials say existing safeguards — barcode tracking, signature verification, and duplicate-vote flagging — prevent double counting. The incidents, in a competitive Central Valley congressional district, quickly drew conspiracy claims on social media amid heightened distrust of mail voting fueled by President Trump's unproven fraud allegations and his blocked effort to restrict mail-in ballots.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is associated with unproven mail-fraud allegations and a blocked effort to restrict mail-in ballots, cast negatively.
- Tulare County, California Tulare County is the primary site of the ballot printing error affecting thousands of voters, a negative administrative failure.
- Imperial County, California Imperial County had a similar mailing error affecting confidential voters, a minor negative mention.
- California California is the state where the ballot printing errors occurred, a factual but mildly negative association.
- Central Valley (California) The Central Valley is mentioned as the location of a competitive district affected by the ballot error controversy.
Related Events
Related Events
Education
New book traces 160 years of California’s fraught relationship with its university system
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
A new book by journalist Miriam Pawel, "California Dreams: The Making and Remaking of the University of California," chronicles the history of the UC system from its 1868 founding through its growth into a $60 billion enterprise spanning 10 campuses, six health systems and three national laboratories. The book frames California's relationship with UC as an intimate, often contentious family dynamic, tracing recurring battles over the university's identity across generations.
Pawel revisits major flashpoints including 1950s ideological purges during the Red Scare, the 1960s Free Speech Movement clashes, and the 1990s fight over Proposition 209, which banned affirmative action and reduced diversity across UC campuses. The review argues UC's core tension lies in being both selective — Berkeley admits fewer than 7,000 of over 130,000 applicants annually — and a vehicle for social mobility. The piece notes current disputes over DEI, free speech and federal funding pressure from the Trump administration echo these long-standing conflicts, suggesting institutional resilience remains UC's defining trait.
Sources:
Sentiment
- California California is referenced as the setting and subject of the book's historical narrative in a neutral, factual manner.
Related Events
Related Events
Fresno’s Affordability Draws Families Leaving Costlier California Cities
PN Team • 5 days ago
An op-ed by California Assemblymember David Tangipa highlights Fresno as a rare affordable foothold in a state losing residents to high costs, with the Department of Finance reporting roughly 288,600 more people left California than arrived last year. Fresno's median home price was about $400,000 in September versus nearly $900,000 statewide. The piece cites the city's agricultural output (around $8.1 billion in 2022), a new Fresno State AI supercomputing partnership, falling homicide rates, and growth as factors drawing young families seeking homeownership and space they can no longer find in Los Angeles or the Bay Area.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Fresno, California Portrayed favorably as an affordable, growing city attracting families with falling homicide rates.
- California Depicted as losing residents to high costs, a negative statewide trend.
Related Events
Related Events
Related Events
California’s 10th District House Race 2026
Leading:
98.5%
Mark DeSaulnier
Vol $127.4k
California’s 21st District House Race 2026
Leading:
94.5%
Jim Costa
Vol $1.00
California’s 20th District House Race 2026
Leading:
97.5%
Vince Fong
Vol $3.2k
CA-42 House winner?
Leading:
98.5%
Robert Garcia
Vol $8.2k
California’s 7th District House Race: 2026 Winner
Leading:
60%
Doris Matsui
Vol $1.9k
Who Will Win California’s 13th Congressional District House Seat
Leading:
94.5%
Adam Gray
Vol $397.4k
Tennessee’s 9th District House Race Winner
Leading:
83.5%
Brent Taylor
Vol $14.7k
CA-51 House winner?
Leading:
98%
Sara Jacobs
Vol $25.4k