California’s 10th District House Race 2026
California’s 10th Congressional District, anchored in the San Joaquin Valley and including Stockton and Tracy, holds its next House election in November 2026. The seat has drawn competitive contests in recent cycles as the district’s demographics and political leanings have shifted. Voters will choose between Democratic and Republican candidates in a race that could factor into control of the House.
Why Markets Are Watching
House control often comes down to a handful of competitive districts, and CA-10 is one of the seats both parties view as winnable. The outcome will shape representation for Central Valley communities on agriculture, water policy, and economic issues central to the region. A swing here could also signal broader voter sentiment heading into the midterms.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The contract reduces a multi-candidate campaign to a binary question: which party wins the seat. This isolates partisan control rather than vote margin or turnout mechanics, letting traders focus purely on who ends up in office. It effectively measures confidence in the district’s partisan lean holding steady or shifting as the election approaches.
Related terms
Total Volume
$155.1k
Kalshi $2.5k · Polymarket $152.5k
Leading Market
Mark DeSaulnier
Kalshi 98% · Polymarket 99%
Mark DeSaulnier Volume
$129.1k
Kalshi $1.6k · Polymarket $127.4k
Mark DeSaulnier 24h Change
-1.00%
Kalshi 0.00% · Polymarket -1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark DeSaulnierDemocratic Party | 98.8¢ | 7.0% | , trade Mark DeSaulnier on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 99.0¢ | 5% | , trade Mark DeSaulnier on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Jeff FreseRepublican Party | 3.3¢ | 7.0% | , trade Jeff Frese on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 3.0¢ | 5% | , trade Jeff Frese on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark DeSaulnierDemocratic Party | $129,064.09 | ||
| Jeff FreseRepublican Party | $26,004.13 |