Arizona Governor Race: Margin of Victory

Arizona's 2026 governor's race pits Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs against Republican Rep. Andy Biggs, with Green Party candidate Risa Lombardo and No Labels candidate Teri Ann Hourihan also on the ballot. Hobbs, who defeated Kari Lake in 2022, is emphasizing tax cuts, medical debt relief, and a tougher stance on immigration, while distancing herself from some national Democratic positions. Biggs, a longtime Trump ally and former House Freedom Caucus chair who backed efforts to block certification of the 2020 election results, has Trump's endorsement and support from Turning Point Action. Both campaigns are trading attack ads over child-sex-abuse legislation records.

Republicans hold a voter registration edge, but low turnout and Trump's sagging approval ratings could favor Democrats, echoing 2018's "Blue Wave." For the first time, each candidate has a running mate for a newly created lieutenant governor post: Biggs chose state Sen. Sine Kerr, while Hobbs picked former Republican Mesa Mayor John Giles, now an independent, to court centrist voters.

Arizona's November general election ballot is set after a series of court rulings, with eight measures referred by the Republican-controlled Legislature going before voters. Two competing school voucher reform proposals were removed following Arizona Supreme Court decisions, leaving the Empowerment Scholarship Account program off this year's ballot. A separate challenge to Proposition 144's ballot description, over claims it was misleading, was rejected by the court.

The measures voters will decide include Proposition 141 (banning car mileage taxes), Proposition 142 (expanding anti-DEI restrictions in government and schools), Proposition 144 (voter ID and election administration rules), Proposition 316 (grocery tax restrictions), Proposition 317 (designating drug cartels as terrorist organizations), Proposition 318 (restricting transgender student athletes and bathroom access), Proposition 319 (requiring voter approval for photo-radar enforcement), and Proposition 320 (mandating minimum classroom spending by school districts). Gov. Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, cannot veto legislatively referred ballot measures, a dynamic that has shaped how Republican lawmakers advance policy in the state. Voters will receive additional informational pamphlets ahead of the election.

Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes announced her office will not charge Gov. Katie Hobbs over allegations she traded a rate increase for a group home operator in exchange for political contributions. Sunshine Residential Homes gave $200,000 to the state Democratic Party before Hobbs' 2022 election, then $100,000 to her inaugural fund and another $100,000 to the party in 2023, before securing a 30% rate hike from the Department of Child Safety, raising its per-bed rate from $149 to $195. Mayes, a Democrat, said investigators found no evidence of the quid pro quo needed to support a bribery charge, concluding the increase stemmed from Sunshine's leverage as the state's largest foster-care bed provider—it threatened to shift beds to a more lucrative federal program—rather than political pressure. Hobbs denies involvement, and state officials say then-DCS Director David Lujan approved the increase independently.

Mayes still called for legislative reform on contractor donation transparency. A separate investigation by Republican Maricopa County Attorney Rachel Mitchell and the state auditor general continues, with no completion timeline. The controversy remains a campaign issue as Hobbs seeks reelection against Republican Rep. Andy Biggs.

Governor Katie Hobbs has spent more than $10 million on television advertising against Republican challenger Andy Biggs, who has yet to air a traditional TV campaign and remains largely confined to online and social media messaging. The gap has sparked frustration among Arizona Republicans, prompting state party Chair Sergio Arellano to address concerns in a newsletter, promising "more ads are on the way" while defending a digital-first strategy as fiscally conservative.

Former state party chair Gina Swoboda criticized the approach, arguing available funds should be spent now rather than held back, warning that even loyal Republican voters are being saturated with Democratic messaging. Arellano said the newsletter responded to grassroots frustration over what he called one-sided media coverage of Hobbs. Biggs is expected to get a seven-figure ad buy soon, though it would still trail Hobbs' spending significantly. Analysts note the imbalance risks letting Hobbs define Biggs to voters before he can respond.

The Arizona governor's race turned sharply negative this week as incumbent Democrat Katie Hobbs and Republican challenger Andy Biggs each released attack ads accusing the other of protecting pedophiles, with early voting set to begin in about a month.

Hobbs' campaign targeted Biggs over a 2013 decision, made while he led the State Senate, to block legislation cracking down on child abuse tied to a polygamist sect in Colorado City. Biggs says he killed the bill because it was poorly drafted, though some Republican colleagues criticized the move at the time. Biggs countered with an ad accusing Hobbs of vetoing multiple bills that would have imposed tougher penalties on sex offenders; Hobbs has said existing laws were already adequate and that one bill was drafted so broadly it could have banned shows like South Park.

Political analysts called the exchange unusually vicious, warning it distracts from pressing issues like water supply and cost of living. Hobbs holds a significant fundraising advantage, backing her ad with a multi-million dollar buy compared to Biggs' weekly ad budget of up to $250,000.

Jakob Blodgett, a 9-year-old with Type 1 diabetes, died in 2022 after staff at an Arizona group home run by Sunshine Residential Homes missed two doses of his long-lasting insulin and told an employee to give him water instead of medication. He developed brain swelling and died on a ventilator. Despite a licensing violation from the Department of Child Safety, the state imposed no fines, suspension, or license revocation, and no criminal charges have been filed, though a sheriff's investigation continues.

The case has become entangled in Arizona politics ahead of Gov. Katie Hobbs' reelection bid. Sunshine, the state's largest group home provider, made $550,000 in political contributions benefiting Hobbs, including gifts to her inaugural and legal defense funds, before receiving a 30% rate increase. Attorney General Kris Mayes found no evidence of bribery, attributing the increase to Sunshine's leverage as a dominant provider. Republican challenger Andy Biggs has seized on the scandal, while a state auditor general investigation and a county attorney probe remain ongoing. A separate diabetic teen died at another Arizona group home in 2024.

Arizona Democrats say they are "cautiously optimistic" about flipping the state Legislature, where Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both the Senate (17-13) and House (33-27). House Minority Leader Oscar De Los Santos points to a cost-of-living backlash against Republican policies as a key factor, while Senate Pro Tempore T.J. Shope says the GOP's candidates and messaging will hold the majority. Every seat in both chambers is up for election, but only a handful of districts are genuinely competitive. If Democrats win both chambers alongside Gov. Katie Hobbs's re-election, it would end years of divided government and Hobbs's record pace of vetoes.

A new poll shared with The Daily Signal by the League of American Workers finds nearly 80% of Arizona voters hold an unfavorable view of public education in the state, a rare point of agreement across party lines. A majority of respondents, including 67.2% of Democrats, say taxpayers are getting a poor return on public education spending, and only a quarter of Arizona eighth graders are proficient in reading. Despite that dissatisfaction, voters favor the state's Empowerment Scholarship Account program, which funds private-school tuition, by roughly 16 points.

The same survey, conducted October 3-6 among 1,513 likely voters, shows Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs leading Republican Rep. Andy Biggs 48.9% to 43.2% in the governor's race, though both candidates have weak favorability. Hobbs' veto of a ban on sex-transition procedures for minors appears to be a net negative for her. The poll also found strong support for immigration enforcement cooperation, skepticism toward mass migration and China, a clear preference for capitalism over socialism, and continued concern over personal finances under the Trump administration.

Arizona's attorney general race is heating up as Democratic incumbent Kris Mayes and Republican challenger Warren Petersen, the state Senate president, faced off in their first televised debate. Mayes, who narrowly defeated Abe Hamadeh by 280 votes in 2022 in a recount-triggering finish, is seeking a second term against Petersen, who won the GOP nomination in July over Rodney Glassman.

The debate turned combative over law enforcement, with Petersen citing Mayes' past comments about masked immigration agents, which drew criticism from police groups and Gov. Katie Hobbs, while Mayes countered by pointing to Petersen's legislative voting record on police-related bills. The candidates also clashed over immigration detention facilities, including a $1.2 billion federally funded expansion in Florence, ICE's role in Arizona, and how to handle young migrants brought to the country as children. They split over data centers, with Petersen favoring expansion under local control and Mayes urging caution. Their sharpest divide remains relations with Washington: Mayes has filed more than 50 lawsuits against the Trump administration over mail-in ballot restrictions, tariffs, and vaccine rules, while Petersen, a strong Trump supporter, has pledged to drop those challenges if elected. Polling from AARP and Noble Predictive Insights shows Mayes with a modest lead, with about one in five voters still undecided.

A new HighGround poll shows Democrats ahead in Arizona's top statewide races one week before Election Day. Gov. Katie Hobbs leads Republican Andy Biggs, Democrat Adrian Fontes leads Republican Alexander Kolodin for secretary of state, and Democrat Kris Mayes leads Republican Warren Petersen for attorney general. The results are notable in a state where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by roughly 300,000 voters.

Leading GOP candidates have embraced or been endorsed by President Donald Trump, which helped in primaries but appears to be a drag in the general election as Trump's approval rating has slipped. Analysts note undecided voters remain limited, though races could still tighten before polls close.