Arizona Secretary of State Election: Who Will Win in 2026

A new poll from Noble Predictive Insights offers the first comprehensive look at Arizona's key statewide down-ballot races ahead of November. Democratic incumbent Adrian Fontes leads Republican Alexander Kolodin by 6 points in the secretary of state race, while Democratic incumbent Kris Mayes holds a similar 6-point lead over Republican Warren Petersen for attorney general; both contests have roughly 20% undecided voters and a margin of error near 3%. The superintendent of public instruction race is tighter, with Republican Kimberly Yee leading Democrat Teresa Leyba Ruiz by just 3 points.

Political consultants from both parties say all three races remain competitive with weeks to go. Analysts point to Yee's name recognition from her time as state treasurer, Mayes' crossover appeal among moderate Republicans, and lingering effects of Petersen's contentious primary as key dynamics. Both sides agree independent voters will likely decide the outcomes, making these races worth watching for prediction markets tracking Arizona's statewide offices.

A new HighGround poll shows Democrats ahead in Arizona's top statewide races one week before Election Day. Gov. Katie Hobbs leads Republican Andy Biggs, Democrat Adrian Fontes leads Republican Alexander Kolodin for secretary of state, and Democrat Kris Mayes leads Republican Warren Petersen for attorney general. The results are notable in a state where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by roughly 300,000 voters.

Leading GOP candidates have embraced or been endorsed by President Donald Trump, which helped in primaries but appears to be a drag in the general election as Trump's approval rating has slipped. Analysts note undecided voters remain limited, though races could still tighten before polls close.

A new HighGround poll shows Arizona Democrats leading Republicans across every major statewide race, despite the GOP holding a roughly 300,000-voter registration advantage in the state. Gov. Katie Hobbs leads Republican Andy Biggs by 17 points, Secretary of State Adrian Fontes leads Alexander Kolodin by 12 points, and Attorney General Kris Mayes leads Warren Petersen by 15 points. Democratic candidates for treasurer and superintendent also show high single-digit leads.

HighGround President Chuck Coughlin, whose firm is widely regarded as Arizona's top pollster, said the results surprised even him, estimating that 25-30% of Republican voters are not backing their party's candidates. Some voters cited dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and GOP leadership as a motivating factor. The Biggs campaign disputed the poll's credibility, pointing to Coughlin's firm's ties to a group funding pro-Hobbs advertising; Coughlin said the poll was self-funded. With three weeks until Election Day, the findings add uncertainty to several closely watched Arizona races.

Arizona's November general election ballot is set after a series of court rulings, with eight measures referred by the Republican-controlled Legislature going before voters. Two competing school voucher reform proposals were removed following Arizona Supreme Court decisions, leaving the Empowerment Scholarship Account program off this year's ballot. A separate challenge to Proposition 144's ballot description, over claims it was misleading, was rejected by the court.

The measures voters will decide include Proposition 141 (banning car mileage taxes), Proposition 142 (expanding anti-DEI restrictions in government and schools), Proposition 144 (voter ID and election administration rules), Proposition 316 (grocery tax restrictions), Proposition 317 (designating drug cartels as terrorist organizations), Proposition 318 (restricting transgender student athletes and bathroom access), Proposition 319 (requiring voter approval for photo-radar enforcement), and Proposition 320 (mandating minimum classroom spending by school districts). Gov. Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, cannot veto legislatively referred ballot measures, a dynamic that has shaped how Republican lawmakers advance policy in the state. Voters will receive additional informational pamphlets ahead of the election.

The U.S. Supreme Court has cleared the way for the Trump administration to begin planning restrictions on who can vote by mail, though no immediate changes take effect for the midterm elections. The ruling stems from a March executive order directing the Department of Homeland Security to compile lists of eligible voters in each state, with instructions for the U.S. Postal Service to deliver ballots only to those listed. The Court's opinion permits the administration to develop such a plan but does not authorize the Postal Service to withhold ballots from registered voters.

In states like Arizona, where roughly 90% of voters cast ballots by mail, Democratic officials including Secretary of State Adrian Fontes and Attorney General Kris Mayes—who sued over the order—warn the policy risks disenfranchising eligible voters, particularly veterans and rural residents, through error or intentional suppression. Officials are urging voters to continue mailing ballots and to track them online while the legal and administrative process unfolds.

A new state audit has intensified debate over Arizona's Parents as Paid Caregivers program, which pays parents to care for children with severe disabilities. Auditors found the state could have saved up to half a billion dollars in fiscal year 2026 had officials fully implemented cost-control measures required under a 2025 law, including a new assessment tool that Gov. Katie Hobbs suspended amid threatened litigation from advocacy groups.

The program's costs have surged as it expanded from covering adult children to minors during the pandemic; related attendant-care spending rose from $77 million in 2019 to nearly $615 million in 2025, with the parent caregiver program driving much of the increase. About 8,800 children now receive parent-provided care, up from roughly 3,469 in 2023.

Republican lawmakers, including Rep. David Livingston and Senate Majority Leader John Kavanagh, call the program "out-of-control" and want deeper cuts, while Hobbs' office and disability advocates warn that reducing hours could force children into costlier institutional or foster care. A legislative hearing is expected early next year.

Arizona Democratic Reps. Greg Stanton, Yassamin Ansari and Adelita Grijalva reported suspicious letters, some containing unknown substances, sent to former office addresses, following a similar incident at Secretary of State Adrian Fontes' office that prompted an Arizona Capitol evacuation; the substance there proved non-hazardous. The FBI, U.S. Postal Inspection Service and U.S. Capitol Police confirmed a broader nationwide pattern, with over 800 suspicious envelopes sent to congressional and election offices. Colorado lawmakers including Sen. John Hickenlooper and Reps. Joe Neguse, Jason Crow, Brittany Pettersen and Diana DeGette also reported receiving or intercepting such letters. Staff were unharmed; officials called the mailings an intimidation attempt and vowed continued investigation.

The U.S. Attorney for the District of Arizona has opened an investigation, now referred to the FBI, into three nonprofits — Stand Indivisible Arizona, Worker Power, and When We Count — over allegations they registered noncitizens to vote ahead of next week's midterm elections. Officials cited written and video reports suggesting personnel from the groups disregarded or ignored Arizona's ban on registering noncitizens. Letters were also sent to the Maricopa County recorder and the Arizona secretary of state urging a review of the organizations' registration practices. Officials stressed that only registered citizens may vote and that knowingly registering noncitizens would violate federal law.

Arizona's general election, set for Nov. 3, 2026, will determine the state's next governor, attorney general, superintendent of public instruction and secretary of state. Voters will also weigh in on numerous congressional, legislative and local races across the Phoenix metro area, along with a range of statewide and local ballot measures.

Eligibility requires Arizona residency, being at least 18 by Election Day, and voter registration. Early voting and mail ballots begin in October ahead of the general election. Local outlets have compiled guides covering candidates, races and measures to help residents prepare.

For prediction markets, Arizona remains a closely watched battleground given its history of competitive statewide races, particularly for governor and other top offices. The outcomes could carry implications for national political dynamics heading into the following cycles, making the state's races a focal point for election-related forecasting and betting markets in the months ahead.

Arizona's Proposition 144 would amend the state constitution to require voters to show valid government-issued ID before casting a ballot "in each election," regardless of voting method. That would extend ID requirements to mail-in voting for the first time, but the measure doesn't specify how mail voters would comply, leaving that to the Legislature "as prescribed by law."

Critics, including Tempe City Councilmember Randy Keating, argue the vague language could let a future Legislature make compliance onerous and effectively undermine mail-in voting, which a large share of Arizonans use. Former Secretary of State Ken Bennett raised similar concerns. Supporters, including the Arizona Free Enterprise Club's Greg Blackie, suggest options like submitting driver's license or partial Social Security numbers, or uploading ID online, though Republican legal figures disagree on whether that would satisfy the constitutional text. Arizona voters rejected a similar ID requirement in 2022. The proposition also addresses early ballot tabulation on Election Day and foreign campaign spending. If passed, changes would take effect by 2028, reshaping how millions of Arizonans vote by mail.