Who Will Win the 2026 Alaska Governor’s Race

Alaska voters headed to the polls Tuesday in primaries shaping contests for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor and the legislature, alongside a Florida primary seen as an early indicator for control of Congress. The marquee Alaska race pits Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan against Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola, one of 16 candidates in the all-party primary; the top four finishers advance to a November general election decided by ranked choice voting. A same-named challenger, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., also qualified for the ballot after Republicans failed in court to remove him, and the Justice Department is reportedly investigating whether he entered the race to confuse voters and split support from the incumbent.

Rep. Nick Begich is seeking a second term against independent challenger Bill Hill, while 17 candidates compete to succeed term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy. Voters are also deciding a ballot measure on campaign contribution limits. Some polls show Peltola leading in a state that typically favors Republicans, and Democrats view Alaska as a key opportunity as they seek to flip four seats to win Senate control.

Tom Begich, who finished second among Democrats in Alaska's gubernatorial primary with 20.8% of the vote, has dropped out of the race and endorsed fellow Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, the top vote-getter overall at 22.5%. The withdrawal leaves Kreiss-Tomkins as the sole Democrat on the November ranked-choice ballot to succeed term-limited Governor Mike Dunleavy.

On the Republican side, consolidation has been harder to achieve. Candidate Dave Bronson, who reportedly signed a pledge to withdraw if he didn't win a primary majority, has said he will stay in the race despite finishing behind businesswoman Bernadette Wilson. That raises the possibility of three Republicans splitting the conservative vote against a single, consolidated Democratic candidate under Alaska's top-four ranked-choice system. Candidates have until August 31 to withdraw before the ballot is finalized. A separate ballot measure to repeal ranked-choice voting is also before Alaska voters this November.

Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski has endorsed Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins in Alaska's gubernatorial race ahead of the November 3 midterm election, breaking with her party in a contest that also includes three Republican candidates. The winner succeeds term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy. Murkowski cited the need for bipartisan problem-solving on fiscal policy, energy costs, and economic growth, saying partisanship shouldn't hamstring the state's future. She said she will not change party affiliation. Kreiss-Tomkins welcomed the backing, pledging cooperation with the legislature and industry. The endorsement comes as attention also turns to Sen. Dan Sullivan's Trump-backed reelection bid under Alaska's top-four primary and ranked-choice system.

Alaska voters will decide this November whether to repeal the state's four-year-old election system, which combines an open top-four primary with ranked-choice voting in the general election. Supporters, including Senate President Gary Stevens and House Speaker Bryce Edgmon, say the system has fostered bipartisan governance and protected moderates from partisan primary pressure in a state where more than 60 percent of voters are unaffiliated. Critics argue the system is confusing and invites gamesmanship, pointing to two Republican candidates both named Dan Sullivan running for U.S. Senate, and to Democrats consolidating behind gubernatorial candidate Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins after a rival dropped out.

The repeal campaign has drawn heavy out-of-state funding, including large donations from Elon Musk and Jeff Yass to a PAC backing the measure. This marks the third time since 2020 that Alaskans have voted on their primary system. The outcome could shape competitiveness in key races, including the three-way Republican gubernatorial field and the Senate contest involving Democrat Mary Peltola, while determining whether Alaska keeps its distinctive alternative to traditional partisan primaries.

Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy ordered an investigation into allegations, first reported by The New York Times, that Senate candidate Mary Peltola's campaign recruited a retiree named Dan J. Sullivan to run against incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan to confuse Republican voters. President Trump called for Peltola's removal from the ballot, though early voting already began October 19. The Justice Department has filed a preemptive lawsuit seeking to block certification if Peltola wins, a move Sen. Lisa Murkowski publicly opposed. Peltola's campaign dismissed the story as a distraction, while a former aide said Peltola was aware of the effort but not directly involved. It remains unclear whether any law was broken.

Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy has directed the Department of Public Safety to investigate allegations that staff for Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee recruited namesake challenger Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. to siphon votes from Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan. The probe follows New York Times reporting, partly based on a since-retracted account from Peltola's fired former campaign manager, Elisa Rios, describing an internal "ballot composition" effort allegedly involving Peltola's campaign lawyers and senior DSCC aides. The Peltola campaign and DSCC deny involvement, with Peltola calling the controversy "a distraction"; the retired Petersburg teacher also denies running at Democrats' behest, though he has acknowledged a history of backing Peltola and other Democrats.

President Trump called for Peltola's prosecution and removal from the ballot, and the Justice Department has issued fresh subpoenas to Democratic officials believed to be involved in the recruitment effort, building on an existing U.S. Attorney's Office inquiry into Daniel J. Sullivan dating back to summer. The DOJ has also sued to block certification if Sullivan narrowly loses, arguing the scheme amounts to a "conspiracy to undermine the integrity of the electoral process"; Alaska moved to dismiss that suit, calling it meritless, and a federal judge set an expedited schedule with a ruling possible within days. The Alaska Supreme Court previously rejected efforts to remove the challenger Sullivan from the ballot. Sen. Lisa Murkowski joined other Republicans condemning the alleged scheme as voters rank Sen. Sullivan, Peltola, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., and Gerald Heikes on the Nov. 3 ballot.

Dunleavy has declined to commit to certifying the election if Peltola wins while the investigation is ongoing, saying any finding of illegal conduct "may in fact impact whether somebody is seated in the U.S. Senate" and that officials would weigh whether to involve Senate leadership. House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer has demanded testimony from operatives named in the reporting and threatened subpoenas of his own. Dunleavy's term ends Dec. 7, shortly after Alaska's target date for certifying results.

Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy says he could stop or alter certification of the state's U.S. Senate result if an investigation he ordered finds illegal conduct tied to Democrat Mary Peltola's campaign. The probe follows a New York Times report, sourced partly to Peltola's fired former campaign manager, alleging Peltola advisers and DSCC aides helped recruit a second "Dan Sullivan" to run against Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. Peltola has publicly denied any knowledge of the scheme, and the DSCC denies involvement. President Trump has called for Peltola's removal from the ballot, though early voting is already underway. Separately, the Justice Department has sued to block certification of any winner but Sullivan pending review, seeking a ruling before the Nov. 3 election.

The allegations have become a flashpoint in national political commentary, with reactions split along partisan lines over whether the recruitment scheme amounts to voter deception warranting intervention, or whether Republican efforts to challenge certification represent their own form of election interference.

A New York Times report alleges top aides to Alaska Democrat Mary Peltola searched voter rolls in 2025 for a resident named Dan Sullivan, hoping to recruit one to run against Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan and split his support under the state's ranked-choice system. The effort, reportedly run by operative Jerid Kurtz with DSCC coordination, found retired teacher Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. in Petersburg, who entered the race; both Sullivans now appear on the four-person ballot, distinguished by middle initial, "Jr.," party affiliation, and an "Incumbent" label. Peltola's campaign and the DSCC deny involvement, calling the report a "distraction," though a fired former campaign manager told the Times Peltola was "definitely aware."

Gov. Mike Dunleavy directed Alaska's Department of Public Safety to investigate whether the scheme violated state law, saying the report shows an "organized effort" to confuse voters. The order follows Trump's call for Peltola's prosecution and a DOJ lawsuit seeking to block certification of a Peltola win if Sullivan Jr. stays on the ballot. Dunleavy has since suggested the state could withhold or delay certifying the Senate results if Peltola wins, pending the probe's findings, and the House Oversight Committee has opened its own inquiry. Sullivan Jr. denies coordinating with Democrats, and the Alaska Supreme Court previously allowed him to remain on the ballot; a legal analyst notes recruiting a spoiler candidate, even if true, may not be illegal under Alaska law.