Alaska Senate Election Winner
Prediction markets are tracking the outcome of Alaska’s upcoming U.S. Senate election, offering a real-time gauge of how bettors assess the likely winner of one of the state’s most closely watched federal races.
What’s at Stake
Alaska’s U.S. Senate seat carries significant weight in the balance of power in Washington. The state’s unique political landscape — shaped by its ranked-choice voting system and a history of independent-minded candidates — makes it a perennially competitive and unpredictable contest. Both major parties, as well as potential independent contenders, factor into market calculations.
How Prediction Markets Frame It
On both Kalshi and Polymarket, traders are allocating probabilities across the field of candidates, reflecting the aggregate wisdom of market participants on who is most likely to prevail. These markets incorporate polling data, fundraising signals, historical voting patterns, and breaking news as they evolve toward election day.
Why It Matters
- Alaska uses a ranked-choice voting system, adding complexity to outcome forecasting.
- The seat could influence the partisan makeup of the U.S. Senate.
- Alaska has a track record of competitive, cross-party races that defy national trends.
- Market sentiment here can serve as an early indicator of shifting electoral momentum.
As the election approaches, market probabilities will continue to shift in response to candidate developments, endorsements, and voter sentiment. This market serves as a live forecasting tool for one of the most distinctive Senate races in the country.
Total Volume
$34.6m
Kalshi $5.7k · Polymarket $34.6m
Leading Market
Mary Peltola
Kalshi 30% · Polymarket 68%
Mary Peltola Volume
$22.5m
Kalshi $2.1k · Polymarket $22.5m
Mary Peltola 24h Change
+4.00%
Kalshi +4.00% · Polymarket 0.00%
Latest Coverage
Insights
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Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary PeltolaDemocratic Party | 40.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
68.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Danny SullivanRepublican Party | 63.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
33.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
Alaska Senate Race Fundraising Record Clouded by DOJ Ballot Lawsuit
PN Team • 7 days ago
Alaska's record-breaking Senate race between Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan has taken a new turn as the Justice Department filed a lawsuit seeking to block certification of results if anyone other than Sullivan wins. The DOJ argues a same-named candidate, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., could confuse the outcome, though the ballot lists the senator's party and incumbent status. Peltola called the suit a "desperate attempt" to cling to power; election integrity advocates and Democratic leaders, including Sen. Chuck Schumer, condemned it as an unprecedented intervention. The lawsuit adds legal uncertainty to a contest already defined by record spending and viewed as pivotal to Senate control.
Peltola has outraised Sullivan roughly $32 million to $13 million since January, with outside groups adding over $80 million more, as early voting continues ahead of the ranked-choice general election.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Mary Peltola Depicted as a strong fundraiser pushing back forcefully against what she calls a desperate legal maneuver.
- Dan Sullivan (U.S. senator) DOJ lawsuit appears designed to protect his seat, raising questions about fairness despite his incumbency.
- Chuck Schumer Portrayed as a Democratic leader condemning the lawsuit as improper interference.
- Republican Party (United States) Party of Sullivan, tied to a controversial DOJ lawsuit seen as favoring him.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as Peltola's party amid a contested, high-stakes Senate race.
- Alaska Setting of the contested, high-spending Senate race described factually.
- United States Senate Referenced as the chamber whose control is at stake in this contested race.
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Elections
Vance rallies for Sullivan as Alaska Senate race emerges as midterm battleground
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
Vice President JD Vance campaigned in Fairbanks on Monday for Senator Dan Sullivan, framing Alaska as a crucial firewall for Republicans as they fight to keep control of Congress in the November 3 midterms. Sullivan, a close Trump ally, faces a tighter-than-expected race against Democrat Mary Peltola, who is running on a "Fish, Family and Freedom" platform that casts Sullivan as too tied to Trump and outside interests. A recent New York Times poll showed Peltola with a lead, though the state's rural population makes polling difficult.
Vance and Trump have cast the midterms as a referendum on the administration, touring battleground and traditionally safe states alike. Sullivan has tied his campaign to energy policy, touting a $200 billion Alaska energy investment package backed by Trump, including a South Korea-linked pipeline project, and $150 million in newly announced federal funding for electrical transmission upgrades. He has also pushed for a ban on diesel exports as fuel prices climb amid ongoing global conflicts. Cost-of-living concerns remain central to the race in a state where energy costs run higher than the national average.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Mary Peltola Portrayed favorably as leading in a poll and running a resonant populist platform.
- Dan Sullivan (U.S. senator) Portrayed as facing a tighter-than-expected race and criticized by opponents as too tied to Trump, though also shown touting investment wins.
- Alaska Central setting of the race with investment and energy policy focus, mostly neutral/factual.
- Donald Trump Depicted as a polarizing figure whose close ties to Sullivan are used against him, alongside credit for backing energy investment.
- Republican Party (United States) Referenced as the party Vance and Sullivan represent in a factual midterm context.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as Peltola's party affiliation in a neutral, factual context.
- United States Congress Mentioned neutrally as the body control of which is at stake in midterms.
- United States Senate Referenced as the chamber where Sullivan's seat is contested, factual mention.
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Elections
Alaska holds midterm primaries in pivotal Senate race
PN Team • 2 months ago
Alaska voters headed to the polls Tuesday in primaries shaping contests for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor and the legislature, alongside a Florida primary seen as an early indicator for control of Congress. The marquee Alaska race pits Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan against Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola, one of 16 candidates in the all-party primary; the top four finishers advance to a November general election decided by ranked choice voting. A same-named challenger, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., also qualified for the ballot after Republicans failed in court to remove him, and the Justice Department is reportedly investigating whether he entered the race to confuse voters and split support from the incumbent.
Rep. Nick Begich is seeking a second term against independent challenger Bill Hill, while 17 candidates compete to succeed term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy. Voters are also deciding a ballot measure on campaign contribution limits. Some polls show Peltola leading in a state that typically favors Republicans, and Democrats view Alaska as a key opportunity as they seek to flip four seats to win Senate control.
Sentiment
- Mary Peltola Peltola is shown leading in some polls in a traditionally Republican-leaning state, a favorable portrayal.
- Dan Sullivan (U.S. senator) Sullivan faces a competitive race and a confusingly similar-named challenger, a mildly unfavorable situation for him.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are portrayed as failing in a court effort and facing a potentially competitive loss in a traditionally favorable state.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are mentioned as viewing Alaska as a key opportunity to flip Senate seats, a neutral strategic framing.
- Alaska Alaska is the factual setting for the primary elections described.
- Florida Florida's primary is mentioned as an early indicator for congressional control, a neutral factual reference.
- Independent politician Independent challenger Bill Hill is mentioned only factually without elaboration.
- Mike Dunleavy (politician) Dunleavy is mentioned only as the term-limited governor whose seat is open.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned as the broader context for the elections without specific evaluative content.
- United States House of Representatives The House is mentioned as one of the contested offices without further detail.
- United States Senate The Senate race is the central topic but described factually without reputational spin.
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Elections
New York Times report details staff turmoil in Mary Peltola’s Senate campaign
PN Team • 1 month ago
Alaska Democrat Mary Peltola, running to unseat Sen. Dan Sullivan in one of the midterms' most closely watched Senate races, is facing scrutiny after a New York Times investigation detailed a pattern of volatile behavior toward staff dating back to her time in the U.S. House. Nine former aides told the Times that Peltola directed profane outbursts at staff, including one incident in which she reportedly shoved a male aide on his chest, and that she used slurs, including an offensive term for gay people and "retard," on multiple occasions, allegations her campaign has denied or disputed while acknowledging some language. Aides also described her disparaging Planned Parenthood in a text message during a 2024 vote dispute, and some recounted being asked to feed her family's pet chameleon while she traveled.
The report says low morale culminated in a major campaign shake-up in August, just before Alaska's top-four primary, in which her campaign manager was fired and her chief of staff demoted, with two longtime political contractors also reassigned or dismissed. Peltola's campaign attributed any behavioral lapses to grief following the deaths of her mother and husband in 2023, denying claims of mistreatment. Peltola finished first in the August primary, keeping Alaska's Senate race, complicated by ranked-choice voting and other candidates on the ballot, among the contests likely to determine Senate control.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Mary Peltola The report details serious allegations of abusive behavior, slurs, and campaign turmoil directly damaging her reputation.
- Democratic Party (United States) Peltola is a Democrat and this scandal reflects negatively on a prominent party candidate in a key Senate race.
- Dan Sullivan (U.S. senator) Sullivan is mentioned as Peltola's opponent, benefiting indirectly from her negative coverage but not directly characterized.
- Alaska Alaska is referenced as the setting for the Senate race without direct reputational impact.
- United States House of Representatives Mentioned only as context for where Peltola's alleged behavior pattern began.
- United States Senate The Senate race is the backdrop for the story but the chamber itself is not portrayed positively or negatively.
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Elections
Independent Voters Emerge as Wildcard in Alaska’s Pivotal Senate Race
PN Team • 1 month ago
Alaska's Senate contest between Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola has become one of the most competitive races in the country, with control of the Senate potentially hinging on the outcome. Peltola, a former U.S. representative and Alaska Native, has led narrowly in polling and outperformed Sullivan in the August primary, despite Alaska backing Trump by 14 points in 2024. The state's large bloc of nonpartisan and undeclared voters — a majority of the electorate — could prove decisive.
Interviews with voters in Anchorage and Palmer show independents largely favoring Peltola, drawn to her working-class image and personal ties to subsistence fishing, while Republicans back Sullivan over party loyalty and economic concerns like oil and gas jobs. Commercial trawling and its impact on salmon populations have become central campaign issues, particularly for Native Alaskan communities. The race also features a same-named third-party candidate, Sullivan a retired teacher, adding confusion to the ranked-choice ballot. Sen. Lisa Murkowski's independent brand looms large as a reference point for voters weighing Peltola's crossover appeal.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Mary Peltola Peltola is portrayed favorably as a strong, relatable candidate leading in polls with cross-partisan appeal.
- Independent politician Independent and undeclared voters are portrayed as a decisive, empowered bloc in the race.
- Democratic Party (United States) Peltola is identified as the Democratic challenger, a neutral factual reference.
- Donald Trump Trump is mentioned only as a benchmark for Alaska's voting lean, a neutral tangential reference.
- Alaska Alaska is the central setting of the race, described neutrally as politically competitive.
- Dan Sullivan (U.S. senator) Sullivan is shown underperforming in the primary and facing ballot confusion from a same-named candidate, a mildly unfavorable framing.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are shown backing Sullivan despite some hesitance, a neutral factual portrayal.
- Anchorage, Alaska Anchorage is mentioned as a location for voter interviews, a neutral factual detail.
- United States Senate The Senate is mentioned as the institutional stakes of the race, a neutral reference.
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Elections
Peltola Injured in Car Crash Days Before Alaska Senate Election
PN Team • 4 days ago
Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola and her family suffered minor injuries Saturday night when their vehicle was rear-ended at an Anchorage intersection while traveling to a campaign event, her campaign said. Peltola's campaign manager, Cheryl Bruce, said the family is "in good spirits" but that Peltola rescheduled appearances in Fairbanks and Bethel on medical advice, delaying the planned start of her "Alaska Always Tour." Other campaign stops are continuing as scheduled. Peltola faces Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan in a closely watched race that could help determine Senate control, with the ballot also including Gerald Heikes and a non-party-affiliated candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., whose candidacy has drawn criticism from Republicans, including President Trump, as a potential source of voter confusion.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Mary Peltola Injured in a car crash and forced to reschedule campaign events shortly before the election.
- Republican Party (United States) Referenced as criticizing a confusing namesake candidacy, a tangential and mildly negative mention.
- Anchorage, Alaska Site of the car crash, mentioned factually with no broader implication for the city.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned only to identify Peltola's party affiliation in a factual campaign story.
- Alaska Setting of the Senate race described factually without positive or negative framing.
- Dan Sullivan (U.S. senator) Named neutrally as Peltola's opponent in the race without evaluative commentary.
- United States Senate Mentioned factually as the body whose control is at stake in this race.
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Elections
Alaska’s Ranked-Choice Voting System Draws Fresh Criticism
PN Team • 2 months ago
Alaska's ranked-choice voting system, adopted for state and federal elections, continues to face criticism after its first two election cycles were marked by complexity, delays, and voter confusion. Critics argue the system has produced convoluted outcomes and undermined confidence in results, pointing to issues like vote splitting among candidates from the same party and lengthy tabulation processes before winners are declared.
The debate has intensified around Alaska's high-profile U.S. Senate race, where Democrat Mary Peltola advanced to a four-candidate general election against Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan after finishing ahead of him in the primary, a contest that could affect control of the Senate. Peltola's candidacy has drawn scrutiny over her attendance record in past legislative roles, adding another layer to a race already being watched as a test of how ranked-choice voting shapes competitive outcomes. Supporters of the system defend it as a tool to reduce polarization and encourage coalition-building, while detractors, including Republican officials, argue it has instead created procedural headaches, making Alaska's experience a closely watched case nationally.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Mary Peltola Her candidacy is noted but paired with scrutiny over her legislative attendance record, a negative reputational detail.
- Alaska Alaska is portrayed as facing voting system dysfunction, casting a mildly negative light on the state's electoral process.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican officials are portrayed as critics of the voting system, a neutral-to-mildly critical stance role.
- Dan Sullivan (U.S. senator) Described neutrally as the incumbent Republican candidate in the race without notable criticism or praise.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned only as Peltola's party affiliation, a neutral factual reference.
- United States Senate Referenced as the body whose control could be affected by the race, a neutral factual mention.
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Elections
Alaska Governor Orders Probe Into Alleged “Spoiler Sullivan” Scheme in Senate Race
PN Team • 16 hours ago
Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy has directed the Department of Public Safety to investigate allegations that staff for Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee recruited namesake challenger Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. to siphon votes from Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan. The probe follows New York Times reporting, partly based on a since-retracted account from Peltola's fired former campaign manager, Elisa Rios, describing an internal "ballot composition" effort allegedly involving Peltola's campaign lawyers and senior DSCC aides. The Peltola campaign and DSCC deny involvement, with Peltola calling the controversy "a distraction"; the retired Petersburg teacher also denies running at Democrats' behest, though he has acknowledged a history of backing Peltola and other Democrats.
President Trump called for Peltola's prosecution and removal from the ballot, and the Justice Department has issued fresh subpoenas to Democratic officials believed to be involved in the recruitment effort, building on an existing U.S. Attorney's Office inquiry into Daniel J. Sullivan dating back to summer. The DOJ has also sued to block certification if Sullivan narrowly loses, arguing the scheme amounts to a "conspiracy to undermine the integrity of the electoral process"; Alaska moved to dismiss that suit, calling it meritless, and a federal judge set an expedited schedule with a ruling possible within days. The Alaska Supreme Court previously rejected efforts to remove the challenger Sullivan from the ballot. Sen. Lisa Murkowski joined other Republicans condemning the alleged scheme as voters rank Sen. Sullivan, Peltola, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., and Gerald Heikes on the Nov. 3 ballot.
Dunleavy has declined to commit to certifying the election if Peltola wins while the investigation is ongoing, saying any finding of illegal conduct "may in fact impact whether somebody is seated in the U.S. Senate" and that officials would weigh whether to involve Senate leadership. House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer has demanded testimony from operatives named in the reporting and threatened subpoenas of his own. Dunleavy's term ends Dec. 7, shortly after Alaska's target date for certifying results.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Mary Peltola Central figure accused of orchestrating a vote-splitting scheme, facing calls for prosecution and ballot removal.
- Democratic Party (United States) Party officials implicated in an alleged scheme to recruit a spoiler candidate, subpoenaed by DOJ.
- Donald Trump Shown taking assertive action calling for prosecution, framed as decisively responding to alleged wrongdoing.
- Mike Dunleavy (politician) Portrayed as taking decisive action by ordering an investigation into alleged election interference.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans portrayed as condemning the alleged scheme, a mild favorable framing of unity against wrongdoing.
- Dan Sullivan (U.S. senator) Portrayed as the incumbent target of an alleged vote-splitting scheme, largely sympathetic by implication.
- Alaska Setting for the political and legal dispute, described factually without reputational framing.
- United States Senate Senate seat at stake is central to the story but described factually without praise or blame.
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Elections
Florida Primary Results Scramble Both Parties’ Establishment Narratives
PN Team • 2 months ago
Florida's primaries produced a mixed picture for both parties ahead of November's general election. Rep. Byron Donalds won the Republican gubernatorial nomination with Trump's endorsement and a large financial edge, beating Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, former House Speaker Paul Renner and newcomer James Fishback despite Gov. Ron DeSantis's public misgivings; Donalds would become Florida's first Black governor if elected. Former Republican congressman David Jolly, running with Gwen Graham as his lieutenant governor pick, won the Democratic nomination over state Rep. Dotie Joseph and others, pitching himself as a centrist who wants to end the culture wars. The two will meet in November to succeed the term-limited DeSantis, in a state where Democrats haven't won the governorship in over 30 years.
Progressive state Rep. Angie Nixon defeated establishment-backed Alex Vindman for the Senate Democratic nomination despite being outspent; she faces Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, who won her primary with Trump's backing, in the special election for Marco Rubio's former seat. Incumbents Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Jared Moskowitz turned back challengers, including Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, in redrawn districts under Florida's new Republican-favored congressional map. Trump-endorsed Cory Mills lost his House primary amid domestic violence allegations, while far-right figures Dan Bilzerian and Madison Cawthorn were also defeated, alongside Rep. Randy Fine's contentious win.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Byron Donalds Byron Donalds is highlighted as the Republican gubernatorial primary winner and would make history as Florida's first Black governor.
- Randy Fine Randy Fine's primary win is described as 'contentious,' implying a rocky and controversial victory.
- Ashley Moody Ashley Moody is portrayed as a successful incumbent who won her primary with Trump's backing.
- Debbie Wasserman Schultz Debbie Wasserman Schultz is noted as successfully defending her seat against a primary challenge.
- Jared Moskowitz Jared Moskowitz is noted as successfully fending off a primary challenger.
- Ron DeSantis DeSantis's public misgivings about Donalds were overridden, suggesting diminished influence within his own party.
- Donald Trump Trump's endorsements proved decisive in multiple races, reinforcing his political influence within the party.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party's primary results are described factually, with mixed outcomes for establishment and progressive wings.
- Florida Florida is the central setting of the primary results described in a factual, balanced manner.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican Party's primary results are reported neutrally, showing internal divisions but overall party competitiveness.
- Marco Rubio Marco Rubio is mentioned only as the prior holder of the Senate seat now up for special election.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned only as context for House and Senate primary races.
- United States House of Representatives The House of Representatives is referenced as the body for the various House primary races discussed.
- United States Senate The Senate is referenced as the body for the special election primary discussed.
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Elections
Dueling Polls Show Alaska Senate Race Too Close to Call
PN Team • 1 month ago
Two new polls paint conflicting pictures of Alaska's U.S. Senate race between Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan and former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, underscoring how tight the contest is expected to be. An AARP Voter Survey conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research found Peltola leading Sullivan 46 to 41 percent in first-choice votes, with the margin widening to 53-47 percent for Peltola once ranked-choice allocations were applied. A separate Co/Efficient poll, however, showed Sullivan ahead 49 to 46 percent, and found him with a more favorable personal image than Peltola.
Alaska's ranked-choice voting system, adopted by voters in 2020, is expected to play a significant role in the outcome. Republicans currently hold three of four spots on the general election ballot after a crowded Democratic primary field. The AARP poll also showed Democrats with a wider disapproval gap than Republicans statewide, while independents leaned toward Peltola. The split results highlight the race's status as one of the most closely watched Senate contests heading into the election.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Dan Sullivan (U.S. senator) Sullivan is shown leading in one poll and with a more favorable personal image, a modestly positive portrayal.
- Mary Peltola Peltola leads in another poll and among independents, giving a modest positive spin despite mixed results.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are noted to have a wider disapproval gap than Republicans in the AARP poll, a mildly unfavorable data point.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are shown holding an advantage in ballot spots and a narrower disapproval gap, a mildly favorable mention.
- Alaska Alaska is the setting of the race, mentioned neutrally as a factual location.
- United States House of Representatives Mentioned only as Peltola's former chamber, a neutral factual reference.
- United States Senate The Senate is referenced as the context of the race without reputational implication.
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