Which Senate Race Will Be Closer: Alaska or Texas?

Two new polls paint conflicting pictures of Alaska's U.S. Senate race between Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan and former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, underscoring how tight the contest is expected to be. An AARP Voter Survey conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research found Peltola leading Sullivan 46 to 41 percent in first-choice votes, with the margin widening to 53-47 percent for Peltola once ranked-choice allocations were applied. A separate Co/Efficient poll, however, showed Sullivan ahead 49 to 46 percent, and found him with a more favorable personal image than Peltola.

Alaska's ranked-choice voting system, adopted by voters in 2020, is expected to play a significant role in the outcome. Republicans currently hold three of four spots on the general election ballot after a crowded Democratic primary field. The AARP poll also showed Democrats with a wider disapproval gap than Republicans statewide, while independents leaned toward Peltola. The split results highlight the race's status as one of the most closely watched Senate contests heading into the election.

Alaska's ranked-choice voting system, adopted for state and federal elections, continues to face criticism after its first two election cycles were marked by complexity, delays, and voter confusion. Critics argue the system has produced convoluted outcomes and undermined confidence in results, pointing to issues like vote splitting among candidates from the same party and lengthy tabulation processes before winners are declared.

The debate has intensified around Alaska's high-profile U.S. Senate race, where Democrat Mary Peltola advanced to a four-candidate general election against Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan after finishing ahead of him in the primary, a contest that could affect control of the Senate. Peltola's candidacy has drawn scrutiny over her attendance record in past legislative roles, adding another layer to a race already being watched as a test of how ranked-choice voting shapes competitive outcomes. Supporters of the system defend it as a tool to reduce polarization and encourage coalition-building, while detractors, including Republican officials, argue it has instead created procedural headaches, making Alaska's experience a closely watched case nationally.

Alaska voters headed to the polls Tuesday in primaries shaping contests for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor and the legislature, alongside a Florida primary seen as an early indicator for control of Congress. The marquee Alaska race pits Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan against Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola, one of 16 candidates in the all-party primary; the top four finishers advance to a November general election decided by ranked choice voting. A same-named challenger, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., also qualified for the ballot after Republicans failed in court to remove him, and the Justice Department is reportedly investigating whether he entered the race to confuse voters and split support from the incumbent.

Rep. Nick Begich is seeking a second term against independent challenger Bill Hill, while 17 candidates compete to succeed term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy. Voters are also deciding a ballot measure on campaign contribution limits. Some polls show Peltola leading in a state that typically favors Republicans, and Democrats view Alaska as a key opportunity as they seek to flip four seats to win Senate control.

Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski has endorsed Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins in Alaska's gubernatorial race ahead of the November 3 midterm election, breaking with her party in a contest that also includes three Republican candidates. The winner succeeds term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy. Murkowski cited the need for bipartisan problem-solving on fiscal policy, energy costs, and economic growth, saying partisanship shouldn't hamstring the state's future. She said she will not change party affiliation. Kreiss-Tomkins welcomed the backing, pledging cooperation with the legislature and industry. The endorsement comes as attention also turns to Sen. Dan Sullivan's Trump-backed reelection bid under Alaska's top-four primary and ranked-choice system.

Alaska's Senate contest between Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola has become one of the most competitive races in the country, with control of the Senate potentially hinging on the outcome. Peltola, a former U.S. representative and Alaska Native, has led narrowly in polling and outperformed Sullivan in the August primary, despite Alaska backing Trump by 14 points in 2024. The state's large bloc of nonpartisan and undeclared voters — a majority of the electorate — could prove decisive.

Interviews with voters in Anchorage and Palmer show independents largely favoring Peltola, drawn to her working-class image and personal ties to subsistence fishing, while Republicans back Sullivan over party loyalty and economic concerns like oil and gas jobs. Commercial trawling and its impact on salmon populations have become central campaign issues, particularly for Native Alaskan communities. The race also features a same-named third-party candidate, Sullivan a retired teacher, adding confusion to the ranked-choice ballot. Sen. Lisa Murkowski's independent brand looms large as a reference point for voters weighing Peltola's crossover appeal.

Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola and her family suffered minor injuries Saturday night when their vehicle was rear-ended at an Anchorage intersection while traveling to a campaign event, her campaign said. Peltola's campaign manager, Cheryl Bruce, said the family is "in good spirits" but that Peltola rescheduled appearances in Fairbanks and Bethel on medical advice, delaying the planned start of her "Alaska Always Tour." Other campaign stops are continuing as scheduled. Peltola faces Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan in a closely watched race that could help determine Senate control, with the ballot also including Gerald Heikes and a non-party-affiliated candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., whose candidacy has drawn criticism from Republicans, including President Trump, as a potential source of voter confusion.

Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola has asked a federal judge to dismiss a Justice Department lawsuit seeking to block Alaska from certifying election results if Republican incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan loses narrowly. The DOJ suit cites potential voter confusion from a second Republican candidate, Dan J. Sullivan Jr., with a nearly identical name. Peltola's lawyers call the suit a baseless federal overreach into state-run election administration, while Attorney General Todd Blanche says it merely seeks to assess possible legal violations. US District Judge Sharon Gleason has not yet ruled. The race is seen as pivotal to control of the closely divided Senate.

Alaska's U.S. House primary has narrowed to a general-election contest between Republican incumbent Nick Begich, independent Bill Hill, an incarcerated New York Democrat, and a Fairbanks Libertarian, after several Democratic contenders dropped out. Certified results showed Begich winning the primary with 44.6% to Hill's 32.5%, a 12-point gap. Anchorage Democrat Matt Schultz, the party's former front-runner, suspended his campaign in July, citing weak institutional support, and endorsed Hill; other Democratic candidates also withdrew to consolidate anti-Begich votes.

Hill, a Dena'ina Athabascan educator and fisherman, is campaigning on healthcare costs and inflation while also backing oil and gas development alongside renewables. Begich, part of a prominent Alaska political family who unseated Mary Peltola in 2024, is running on legislative wins including energy development measures and the Trump-backed tax and spending law. Begich holds a large fundraising edge. Political analysts are split: some see a plausible path for Hill given Alaska's heavy independent registration and a national climate favoring Democrats and independents, while others call Begich's reelection all but certain under Alaska's ranked-choice general election system.

Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy says he could stop or alter certification of the state's U.S. Senate result if an investigation he ordered finds illegal conduct tied to Democrat Mary Peltola's campaign. The probe follows a New York Times report, sourced partly to Peltola's fired former campaign manager, alleging Peltola advisers and DSCC aides helped recruit a second "Dan Sullivan" to run against Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. Peltola has publicly denied any knowledge of the scheme, and the DSCC denies involvement. President Trump has called for Peltola's removal from the ballot, though early voting is already underway. Separately, the Justice Department has sued to block certification of any winner but Sullivan pending review, seeking a ruling before the Nov. 3 election.

The allegations have become a flashpoint in national political commentary, with reactions split along partisan lines over whether the recruitment scheme amounts to voter deception warranting intervention, or whether Republican efforts to challenge certification represent their own form of election interference.

A commercial fisherman and retired educator from a small Bristol Bay village, independent Bill Hill, has emerged as a serious challenger to Republican Rep. Nick Begich in Alaska's at-large U.S. House race, drawing national attention as the GOP works to protect its narrow House majority. Hill, who is Alaska Native and Dena'ina Athabascan, has centered his campaign on affordability, high fuel costs and limiting billionaire and corporate influence, traveling more than 20,000 miles statewide by plane, ferry and ATV. He was endorsed by the Alaska Democratic Party but insists he remains independent and uncommitted on which party he'd caucus with.

Begich, from a prominent political family, has aligned closely with President Trump, who along with Vice President JD Vance and House Speaker Mike Johnson has campaigned for him; Trump is slated to rally in Wasilla soon. National GOP groups have increased ad spending as the race tightens. The ranked-choice general election, set for Nov. 3, also includes incarcerated New York Democrat Eric Hafner, whom Hill's campaign has branded a "fake Democrat."