Alabama’s 6th District House Race 2026
Alabama’s 6th Congressional District, covering parts of the Birmingham suburbs and stretching toward Tuscaloosa and Montgomery, heads to voters in November 2026 to pick its next U.S. House representative. The seat has leaned Republican in recent cycles, but redistricting and shifting suburban demographics have made its competitiveness a point of discussion. Party primaries will narrow the field before the general election decides the winner.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House often comes down to a small number of competitive districts, and Alabama’s 6th has drawn attention amid redistricting fights across the South. A flip here would signal broader shifts in suburban voting patterns and could factor into the national balance of power in Congress. Local turnout and candidate quality will shape how closely the race tracks national trends.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question is binary: which party’s nominee wins the general election in November 2026. This isolates partisan control of the seat from the noise of primary contests or candidate-specific storylines. Traders are effectively weighing district partisanship, incumbency effects, and national political winds heading into the midterms, distilling a complex regional contest into a single tradeable outcome.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
Redistricting -
United States midterm election -
Alabama -
Montgomery, Alabama -
Birmingham, Alabama -
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Total Volume
$65.8k
Kalshi $2.3k · Polymarket $63.4k
Leading Market
Gary Palmer
Kalshi 97% · Polymarket 97%
Gary Palmer Volume
$15.4k
Kalshi $460.84 · Polymarket $15k
Gary Palmer 24h Change
+1.00%
Kalshi 0.00% · Polymarket +1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary PalmerRepublican Party | 99.3¢ | 7.0% |
|
99.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Maurice MercerDemocratic Party | 2.9¢ | 7.0% |
|
3.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
Alabama Governor’s Race Fundraising
PN Team • 4 days ago
Campaign finance records show Republican nominee Tommy Tuberville has raised more than $16 million for Alabama's governor's race, with funds split roughly evenly between individual donors and groups or businesses. Top contributors include Alabama businessmen Chad Witcher and Reid Dove, both of whom advise Tuberville on an "action team" shaping transition policy, along with billionaire Jimmy Rane and Birmingham businessman Raymond Harbert.
Democratic nominee Doug Jones, a former U.S. senator, has raised more than $6 million, with nearly all of it from individual donors; his top contributor is George Landegger. The fundraising gap underscores Tuberville's financial advantage heading into the race.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Tommy Tuberville Portrayed as the financial frontrunner with a substantial fundraising lead.
- Doug Jones (politician) Described factually as trailing in fundraising, a neutral financial detail without criticism.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned only as the party affiliation of the leading fundraiser, without evaluative content.
- Alabama Referenced only as the setting for the governor's race fundraising story.
- Birmingham, Alabama Mentioned only as the hometown of a contributor, with no evaluative context.
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Elections
Alabama’s 2nd District race tightens as redrawn map tests Figures-Marques matchup
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Alabama's redrawn 2nd Congressional District has become one of the nation's most closely watched House races. Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures, who won the seat in 2024 when it was a Black-opportunity district, now faces Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques after a court-ordered redistricting process made the district whiter, more rural, and carried by Trump by roughly 14 points in 2024. That shift makes Marques the favorite, but handicappers like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball still rate the race "likely" or merely "lean" Republican rather than safe.
Turnout among Black voters in Montgomery, the district's largest population center, is seen as decisive for Figures, while Marques leans on the heavily Republican Wiregrass region and an endorsement from Sen. Katie Britt. Figures leads in cash on hand despite similar overall fundraising totals. One recent partisan poll showed the race tied. Analysts say the outcome could help determine whether Democrats retake the House and could expand a bloc of Southern Republicans elected under newly redrawn, less minority-protective maps.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Rhett Marques Marques is described as the favorite in a competitive race, a favorable positioning.
- Katie Britt Britt's endorsement of Marques is portrayed as a political asset boosting his campaign.
- Republican Party (United States) The redrawn map and favorite status favor Republicans, suggesting an expanding Southern GOP bloc.
- Democratic Party (United States) The race is framed as a potential pickup opportunity that could help Democrats retake the House.
- Donald Trump Trump is referenced as having carried the district by a wide margin, a neutral electoral fact though tied to partisan shift.
- Montgomery, Alabama Montgomery is cited as a key population center whose Black voter turnout could decide the race, a neutral to mildly positive civic role.
- Alabama Alabama is mentioned as the setting for the race without specific reputational framing.
- United States House of Representatives Neutral factual reference to the chamber at stake in the election.
- United States Senate Mentioned only as the body Katie Britt serves in, with no direct bearing on reputation.
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Local & State
Alabama’s Black Belt faces renewed calls for investment and recognition
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Alabama's Black Belt, a historically rich but impoverished stretch of counties across the state's midsection, remains among the poorest regions in the country. Seven Black Belt counties rank in the nation's top 100 for family poverty, with residents facing shortages of maternity care, hospitals, jobs, and internet access. Decades of absentee land ownership, mostly by outside timber interests, has left tax bases weak and local economies struggling.
The discussion follows the Black Belt Community Foundation's presentation of its Legacy Award to Bryan Stevenson, director of the Equal Justice Initiative, for his work on the region. Stevenson and foundation director Chris Spencer argue the state owes the region more than charity — citing its outsized cultural contributions, from quilting to blues and jazz, despite being built on slavery and exploitation. They call for sustained investment, political commitment, and policy changes, including Medicaid expansion and voting access, to transform the Black Belt from the state's poorest counties into a model for opportunity.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Black Belt (region of Alabama) The Black Belt is depicted as impoverished with severe deficits in healthcare, jobs, and infrastructure despite rich cultural heritage.
- Alabama Alabama is portrayed as failing to adequately invest in its poorest region despite its cultural and historical significance.
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Elections
Figures says Montgomery turnout will decide his redrawn Alabama House race
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
U.S. Rep. Shomari Figures told the Alabama Democratic Conference that his reelection bid in Alabama's 2nd Congressional District hinges on turnout in Montgomery County and surrounding Black Belt counties. A U.S. Supreme Court ruling in April weakened part of the Voting Rights Act, allowing Alabama to revert to a 2023 legislative map that removed Figures' hometown of Mobile from the district and extended it into the heavily Republican Wiregrass region. The district's Black voting age population dropped from about 49 percent to just under 40 percent, and the seat would have favored Donald Trump by 14 points in 2024.
Figures, who won the seat in 2024 with 54.6 percent of the vote, faces Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques. He said Montgomery County, roughly 31 percent of registered voters, could make up 40 percent of turnout with strong mobilization. National Democrats have launched a six-figure ad buy, while Trump and Senate candidate Barry Moore have urged Republicans to turn out for Marques, calling the seat critical to the House majority.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Mobile, Alabama Mobile's removal from the district is portrayed as a setback for Figures and Black voter representation.
- Democratic Party (United States) Figures is a Democrat and the party's ad buy support reflects investment in retaining the seat, a mildly favorable mention.
- Montgomery, Alabama Montgomery County is highlighted as pivotal to Figures' reelection chances through strong turnout.
- Rhett Marques Marques is portrayed neutrally to favorably as the Republican challenger benefiting from redistricting and national support.
- Donald Trump Trump is mentioned as urging turnout for the Republican candidate, a neutral political activity mention.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican Party is mentioned factually as benefiting from the redrawn map and mobilizing for Marques.
- Alabama Alabama is the factual setting for the redistricting and election dispute.
- United States House of Representatives The House of Representatives is referenced factually as the chamber whose majority is at stake.
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Politics
Alabama Governor Commutes Death Sentence of Toforest Johnson Amid Doubts Over Conviction
PN Team • 6 days ago
Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey has commuted Toforest Johnson's death sentence to life in prison without parole, citing insufficient direct evidence to justify execution. Johnson was convicted in 1998 for the 1995 murder of Jefferson County Deputy Sheriff William Hardy, largely on testimony from a paid "earwitness." Ivey said the move was not a declaration of innocence. The decision followed years of advocacy from former Attorney General Bill Baxley, former chief justices, convicting jurors, and the original prosecutor, over strong objections from Attorney General Steve Marshall, who urged Ivey to respect the jury's verdict. Critics note prosecutors gave contradictory accounts across multiple trials of who fired the fatal shot. Johnson's attorneys continue pursuing a new trial; Ivey has now commuted three death sentences while overseeing 27 executions.
Sources:
Sentiment
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Local & State
Tuberville rejects Massachusetts-style Muslim commission, sparks debate over religion and state power
PN Team • 1 month ago
Massachusetts lawmakers are considering companion bills (H.3351/S.2134) to create a permanent state commission focused on Muslim residents' interests, including recommending Muslim appointees for government boards. Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), a candidate for Alabama governor, publicly rejected the idea on X, saying no similar measure would pass in Alabama under his watch.
The response has fueled broader commentary urging Tuberville to go further than a social media post, proposing that Alabama pursue legislation asserting the state's Protestant Christian heritage and testing constitutional limits on religious liberty, drawing comparisons to past Alabama fights over Ten Commandments displays and local zoning disputes involving Muslim institutions, such as a withdrawn rezoning request in Hoover. Proponents frame this as a "history and tradition" argument akin to reasoning used in other Supreme Court cases, while acknowledging existing First Amendment doctrine sharply limits what any state could actually enact. The episode highlights ongoing national tension over religious identity, government recognition of minority faiths, and the boundaries of state authority.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Tommy Tuberville Tuberville is portrayed favorably as taking a firm stance defending his state's values against a proposed commission, aligning with his political base.
- Massachusetts Massachusetts is portrayed as pursuing a controversial religious commission that draws criticism from conservatives.
- Alabama Alabama is depicted as resisting the Massachusetts-style commission, a neutral-to-mildly favorable framing of state identity.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican Party is mentioned only as Tuberville's party affiliation, a neutral factual detail.
- United States Senate The Senate is referenced only as Tuberville's current position, a neutral factual mention.
- United States The United States is referenced only as the broader context for constitutional and religious liberty debates.
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Alabama executes Jeffery Lee by lethal injection after nitrogen method blocked
PN Team • 1 month ago
Alabama executed Jeffery Lee, 49, by lethal injection Thursday evening at Holman Correctional Facility, pronounced dead at 6:22 p.m., for the 1998 murders of Jimmy Ellis and Elaine Thompson during a robbery at Jimmy's Pawn Shop in Orrville. Ellis, known for performing as masked Elvis impersonator "Orion," and Thompson were shot along with a third employee who survived by feigning death and later testified against Lee. In his final words, Lee expressed love for his family and fellow death row inmates.
The execution followed a judge's ruling that had blocked the state's original plan to execute Lee via nitrogen gas in June over constitutional concerns. The attorney general's office then sought a new date using lethal injection, despite a 2018 agreement tied to a prior lawsuit stating nitrogen hypoxia would be used if Lee were executed. His attorneys argued the switch violated that agreement; the U.S. Supreme Court denied a stay request hours before the execution.
Lee's case drew added scrutiny because the jury that convicted him voted 7-5 for life without parole, but the trial judge overrode that recommendation—a practice Alabama has since abolished, though not retroactively. Gov. Kay Ivey declined to grant clemency. Lee was the 27th person executed in the U.S. this year and the second in Alabama.
Sources:
Sentiment
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Elections
“Beat Ohio” remark becomes flashpoint in Michigan Senate race
PN Team • 2 months ago
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed drew national criticism, including from Rod Blagojevich, Ted Cruz and the Republican National Committee, after saying on TV he couldn't wait for the University of Michigan "to beat Ohio" in football. Critics framed it as proof he didn't know the sport, but Michigan politicians of both parties, including Fred Upton, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Justin Amash, along with the University of Michigan's own social accounts, have long used "beat Ohio" as shorthand for Ohio State.
Separately, U.S. Sen. Elissa Slotkin urged Michigan Democrats to back El-Sayed in his race against Republican Mike Rogers, without formally endorsing him earlier. Retiring Sen. Gary Peters completed his final "Thank You, Michigan" motorcycle tour, with Slotkin joining part of the ride. Rep. Tom Barrett and Democratic challenger Will Lawrence are set to debate Oct. 6 in the closely watched 7th Congressional District race, seen as pivotal to House control.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Elissa Slotkin Portrayed positively as supportive of her party's candidate and active in community events like the motorcycle tour.
- Gretchen Whitmer Cited as a bipartisan example of using the same football phrase, supporting El-Sayed's defense.
- Ted Cruz Named among national critics of El-Sayed's remark, a mildly negative tangential mention.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as El-Sayed's party affiliation amid the controversy, a neutral factual reference.
- Republican Party (United States) Referenced tangentially as the opposing party amid the political criticism.
- Michigan Central location context for the Senate race and political figures discussed.
- Ohio Referenced as the football rival state central to the 'beat Ohio' controversy.
- United States House of Representatives Referenced factually regarding the pivotal 7th Congressional District race.
- United States Senate Referenced factually as the body candidates are running for.
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Elections
Pennsylvania emerges as key 2025 midterm battleground for governor and Congress
PN Team • 2 months ago
Pennsylvania Democrats see an opportunity this November to flip control of the U.S. House and the state Senate, with Gov. Josh Shapiro leading the ticket as he seeks reelection against Republican state Treasurer Stacy Garrity. Recent polling shows Shapiro with a substantial lead, and a strong win could bolster speculation about a 2028 presidential run. Garrity, endorsed by President Trump, faces a significant fundraising gap and lower name recognition.
Both parties are targeting four eastern Pennsylvania U.S. House districts held by Republican incumbents Brian Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mackenzie, Rob Bresnahan, and Scott Perry, each facing well-funded Democratic challengers amid discontent with Trump. Democrats also see a longer-shot opportunity in a fifth district held by Dan Meuser. In Harrisburg, Democrats need a net gain of two state Senate seats plus the governorship to seize a legislative trifecta and advance priorities like abortion protections, minimum wage increases, and transit funding. Election Day is Nov. 3, with an Oct. 19 voter registration deadline.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Josh Shapiro Shapiro is portrayed favorably with a substantial polling lead and 2028 presidential speculation.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are portrayed as having strong momentum and multiple opportunities to gain power this cycle.
- Donald Trump Trump's endorsement and unpopularity are cited as a liability for Republican candidates.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are depicted playing defense with vulnerable incumbents and a struggling gubernatorial candidate.
- Pennsylvania Pennsylvania is the central subject of the article as a political battleground, described factually.
- Harrisburg, Pennsylvania Harrisburg is referenced only as the location of the state legislature.
- United States House of Representatives Mentioned factually as the chamber both parties are targeting to flip.
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Elections
Haines, Jacob face off for Ohio Senate’s 7th District seat in Warren County
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Republican Zac Haines and Democrat Cara Jacob, both political newcomers, are competing to represent Ohio Senate District 7, covering all of Warren County and part of Hamilton County, in the Nov. 3 election. The seat is open because incumbent Sen. Steve Wilson is term-limited. Haines, of Symmes Township, is CEO of a Blue Ash marketing agency; Jacob, of Montgomery, is a neurologist and professor at the University of Cincinnati.
The candidates diverge sharply on key issues. Haines favors continued income tax cuts, property tax relief tied to homeownership tenure or age, and lighter business regulation, including on data centers, which he wants governed by stronger transparency and accountability rules. Jacob opposes recent state tax cuts she says favored corporations, including the stadium subsidy for the Cleveland Browns, and calls for a property tax "circuit breaker," expanded homestead exemptions, and an end to tax exemptions for data centers. On housing, Haines emphasizes boosting supply through deregulation, while Jacob backs wage growth, limits on bulk housing purchases by investors, and expanded childcare access. Both say the state should better fund local schools and services.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) Jacob's party affiliation is noted factually without added commentary.
- Ohio Ohio is the setting for the election and policy debates, mentioned neutrally.
- Republican Party (United States) Haines's party affiliation is noted factually without added commentary.
- State governments of the United States References to state tax policy and funding reflect general government functions, neutral in tone.
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Alabama’s 3rd District House Race: Who Wins in 2026
Leading:
98.5%
Mike Rogers
Vol $73.2k
Alabama’s 7th District House Race 2026
Leading:
97.5%
Terri Sewell
Vol $13.9k
Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District House Race
Leading:
58.5%
Rhett Marques
Vol $19.7k
How Many House Seats Will Democrats Win in Alabama in 2026
Leading:
60.5%
1
Vol $2.5k
Alabama Senate Race: Margin of Victory
Leading:
90.3%
Moore, 11+ pts
Vol $8.00
Alabama Senate Election: Voter Turnout Threshold
Leading:
95%
Above 1.2M
Vol $0.00
Alabama’s 5th Congressional District House Race Winner
Leading:
95.5%
Dale Strong
Vol $11.7k
Alabama’s 1st Congressional District House Race 2026
Leading:
97.5%
Jerry Carl
Vol $17.8k