Alabama Senate Election: Voter Turnout Threshold

Alabama's redrawn 2nd Congressional District has become one of the nation's most closely watched House races. Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures, who won the seat in 2024 when it was a Black-opportunity district, now faces Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques after a court-ordered redistricting process made the district whiter, more rural, and carried by Trump by roughly 14 points in 2024. That shift makes Marques the favorite, but handicappers like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball still rate the race "likely" or merely "lean" Republican rather than safe.

Turnout among Black voters in Montgomery, the district's largest population center, is seen as decisive for Figures, while Marques leans on the heavily Republican Wiregrass region and an endorsement from Sen. Katie Britt. Figures leads in cash on hand despite similar overall fundraising totals. One recent partisan poll showed the race tied. Analysts say the outcome could help determine whether Democrats retake the House and could expand a bloc of Southern Republicans elected under newly redrawn, less minority-protective maps.

U.S. Rep. Shomari Figures told the Alabama Democratic Conference that his reelection bid in Alabama's 2nd Congressional District hinges on turnout in Montgomery County and surrounding Black Belt counties. A U.S. Supreme Court ruling in April weakened part of the Voting Rights Act, allowing Alabama to revert to a 2023 legislative map that removed Figures' hometown of Mobile from the district and extended it into the heavily Republican Wiregrass region. The district's Black voting age population dropped from about 49 percent to just under 40 percent, and the seat would have favored Donald Trump by 14 points in 2024.

Figures, who won the seat in 2024 with 54.6 percent of the vote, faces Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques. He said Montgomery County, roughly 31 percent of registered voters, could make up 40 percent of turnout with strong mobilization. National Democrats have launched a six-figure ad buy, while Trump and Senate candidate Barry Moore have urged Republicans to turn out for Marques, calling the seat critical to the House majority.

With Alabama's Nov. 3 election 10 days out, forecasters have shifted two marquee races. Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the U.S. Senate contest between Republican Tommy Tuberville and Democrat Doug Jones from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican," citing polls showing Tuberville leading by just over 10 points. Cook Political Report upgraded Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures' odds of retaining his U.S. House seat against Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques, moving that race from "Likely Republican" to "Leans Republican."

The campaigns have grown contentious: Tuberville, also running for governor, released a policy outline and faced backlash over a proposed state-level DOGE effort and comments on pastors and migration; Jones condemned an AI-driven attack page funded by the state GOP. Both House candidates called for a Republican state lawmaker facing human trafficking-related charges to resign.

Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville and Democrat Doug Jones escalated their fight for Alabama governor this week, trading accusations over socialism, public education and public safety. In a Mobile radio interview, Tuberville labeled Democrats socialists, tied Jones to figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Zohran Mamdani and Stacey Abrams, and called public schools "government schools" that fail to teach basics while defending the CHOOSE Act as a way to force competition. Jones rejected the socialist label, pointed to his record passing bipartisan bills in the Senate, and said he would phase out the CHOOSE Act to redirect funding to public schools.

Jones also renewed his push for a debate, accusing Tuberville of avoiding unscripted questions, a challenge Tuberville did not accept, instead citing his 2020 Senate win over Jones. On crime, Tuberville pledged more troopers and "law and order" without naming specific communities, while Jones countered by emphasizing his experience as a federal prosecutor. Abrams is set to campaign with Jones in Huntsville, fueling Tuberville's effort to nationalize the race.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey has commuted Toforest Johnson's death sentence to life in prison without parole, citing insufficient direct evidence to justify execution. Johnson was convicted in 1998 for the 1995 murder of Jefferson County Deputy Sheriff William Hardy, largely on testimony from a paid "earwitness." Ivey said the move was not a declaration of innocence. The decision followed years of advocacy from former Attorney General Bill Baxley, former chief justices, convicting jurors, and the original prosecutor, over strong objections from Attorney General Steve Marshall, who urged Ivey to respect the jury's verdict. Critics note prosecutors gave contradictory accounts across multiple trials of who fired the fatal shot. Johnson's attorneys continue pursuing a new trial; Ivey has now commuted three death sentences while overseeing 27 executions.

Alabama holds its general election on Nov. 3, and the Secretary of State's office has posted sample ballots by county to help voters prepare in advance. Officials recommend downloading and filling out a sample ballot before heading to the polls, noting the official ballot may vary depending on a voter's congressional district.

Voters can confirm their district and polling location through the state's "VoterView" tool by entering their name and birthdate. The election also highlights the choice between straight-party voting, which selects all candidates from one party, and split-ticket voting, which allows selections office by office; voters can combine both approaches, and leaving items blank does not invalidate a ballot. Constitutional amendments will also appear on ballots and require separate attention. The guidance comes as part of broader election-preparation coverage ahead of Alabama's statewide vote.

Republican gubernatorial nominee Sen. Tommy Tuberville argued Alabama voters should elect him governor because President Trump would not extend the same support to Democratic nominee Doug Jones. "He's not going to help Doug Jones," Tuberville said on "The Jeff Poor Show," adding "that's not going to happen."

Tuberville credited Trump with directing an estimated $20 to $30 billion toward Alabama's economy, though he did not detail which programs or projects made up that figure. He said he hopes to keep working with Trump during the final two years of his presidency on jobs and federal investment in the state. Tuberville did not clarify whether a Jones win would mean Alabama losing federal assistance. He also framed the broader 2026 midterms as a referendum on Trump's agenda, telling voters that backing Republicans down the ballot would determine how much support the president retains in Washington. The Jones campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

The U.S. Postal Service says the Akron, Alabama Post Office will permanently close Oct. 31, citing non-renewal of its lease. The facility was abruptly shut on Oct. 14, 16 days earlier than residents had been told, prompting Rep. Terri Sewell to demand answers and reopening. Sewell disputes USPS's account, saying the lessor denied issuing any vacate notice and had agreed to extend the lease through 2031. Her office says the post office was dismantled within 24 hours, with P.O. boxes removed and no guidance given to customers, raising concerns about absentee ballots, Social Security checks and other mail ahead of local election deadlines. Operations shift to Moundville on Nov. 1; a mobile unit serves Akron in the interim.

A federal trial opens Nov. 30 in Huntsville over the Department of Justice's 2020 lawsuit alleging that Alabama's men's prisons are unconstitutionally violent and unsanitary. U.S. District Judge Harold D. Mooty III, without a jury, will decide whether conditions including frequent inmate-on-inmate killings, roughly 30 reported sexual assaults monthly, overcrowding and excessive force by staff amount to cruel and unusual punishment. Prosecutors call the system chronically indifferent to known risks; the state says it has made substantial reforms, including hiring more guards and revising use-of-force policies. The two sides have filed roughly 450 court records, 14,000 potential exhibits, and hundreds of witnesses. The judge expects the trial to last about six weeks.