Alabama’s 7th District House Race 2026
Alabama’s 7th Congressional District, a Democratic stronghold anchored in Birmingham and the Black Belt, holds its 2026 general election to fill its U.S. House seat. The district has reliably elected Democrats for decades, making the primary contests often more competitive than the general. Voters will choose a representative to serve a two-year term in Washington.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the House often hinges on margins in safe seats turning out reliably, and AL-07 offers a barometer for Democratic base enthusiasm in the Deep South. Redistricting fights and demographic shifts in Alabama have kept attention on the district’s boundaries and voter composition. The outcome also signals how national dynamics filter down to historically one-party districts.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question is simply which party holds the seat after votes are counted, reducing a multi-candidate field into a binary partisan outcome. Traders are effectively weighing incumbency strength, primary dynamics, and turnout patterns rather than individual candidate profiles. Given the district’s partisan lean, the contract also tests how much weight markets assign to safe-seat assumptions versus surprise scenarios.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
Redistricting -
Alabama -
Birmingham, Alabama -
Terri Sewell -
Black Belt (region of Alabama)
Total Volume
$52.5k
Kalshi $16.3k · Polymarket $36.3k
Leading Market
Terri Sewell
Kalshi 98% · Polymarket 98%
Terri Sewell Volume
$20.1k
Kalshi $6.2k · Polymarket $13.9k
Terri Sewell 24h Change
-2.00%
Kalshi +1.90% · Polymarket -2.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terri SewellDemocratic Party | 98.6¢ | 7.0% |
|
99.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Ammie AkinRepublican Party | 3.7¢ | 7.0% |
|
3.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Local & State
Akron, Alabama post office to close permanently after disputed abrupt shutdown
PN Team • 1 week ago
The U.S. Postal Service says the Akron, Alabama Post Office will permanently close Oct. 31, citing non-renewal of its lease. The facility was abruptly shut on Oct. 14, 16 days earlier than residents had been told, prompting Rep. Terri Sewell to demand answers and reopening. Sewell disputes USPS's account, saying the lessor denied issuing any vacate notice and had agreed to extend the lease through 2031. Her office says the post office was dismantled within 24 hours, with P.O. boxes removed and no guidance given to customers, raising concerns about absentee ballots, Social Security checks and other mail ahead of local election deadlines. Operations shift to Moundville on Nov. 1; a mobile unit serves Akron in the interim.
Sources:
Sentiment
- United States Postal Service USPS is portrayed unfavorably for an abrupt, disputed closure that disrupted mail service and disregarded resident timelines.
- Terri Sewell Sewell is shown advocating for constituents by demanding answers and disputing USPS's account, casting her favorably.
- Alabama Alabama is mentioned as the state setting without direct reputational implications.
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Local & State
Alabama’s Black Belt faces renewed calls for investment and recognition
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Alabama's Black Belt, a historically rich but impoverished stretch of counties across the state's midsection, remains among the poorest regions in the country. Seven Black Belt counties rank in the nation's top 100 for family poverty, with residents facing shortages of maternity care, hospitals, jobs, and internet access. Decades of absentee land ownership, mostly by outside timber interests, has left tax bases weak and local economies struggling.
The discussion follows the Black Belt Community Foundation's presentation of its Legacy Award to Bryan Stevenson, director of the Equal Justice Initiative, for his work on the region. Stevenson and foundation director Chris Spencer argue the state owes the region more than charity — citing its outsized cultural contributions, from quilting to blues and jazz, despite being built on slavery and exploitation. They call for sustained investment, political commitment, and policy changes, including Medicaid expansion and voting access, to transform the Black Belt from the state's poorest counties into a model for opportunity.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Black Belt (region of Alabama) The Black Belt is depicted as impoverished with severe deficits in healthcare, jobs, and infrastructure despite rich cultural heritage.
- Alabama Alabama is portrayed as failing to adequately invest in its poorest region despite its cultural and historical significance.
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Elections
Alabama Governor’s Race Fundraising
PN Team • 5 days ago
Campaign finance records show Republican nominee Tommy Tuberville has raised more than $16 million for Alabama's governor's race, with funds split roughly evenly between individual donors and groups or businesses. Top contributors include Alabama businessmen Chad Witcher and Reid Dove, both of whom advise Tuberville on an "action team" shaping transition policy, along with billionaire Jimmy Rane and Birmingham businessman Raymond Harbert.
Democratic nominee Doug Jones, a former U.S. senator, has raised more than $6 million, with nearly all of it from individual donors; his top contributor is George Landegger. The fundraising gap underscores Tuberville's financial advantage heading into the race.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Tommy Tuberville Portrayed as the financial frontrunner with a substantial fundraising lead.
- Doug Jones (politician) Described factually as trailing in fundraising, a neutral financial detail without criticism.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned only as the party affiliation of the leading fundraiser, without evaluative content.
- Alabama Referenced only as the setting for the governor's race fundraising story.
- Birmingham, Alabama Mentioned only as the hometown of a contributor, with no evaluative context.
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Politics
Alabama Governor Commutes Death Sentence of Toforest Johnson Amid Doubts Over Conviction
PN Team • 7 days ago
Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey has commuted Toforest Johnson's death sentence to life in prison without parole, citing insufficient direct evidence to justify execution. Johnson was convicted in 1998 for the 1995 murder of Jefferson County Deputy Sheriff William Hardy, largely on testimony from a paid "earwitness." Ivey said the move was not a declaration of innocence. The decision followed years of advocacy from former Attorney General Bill Baxley, former chief justices, convicting jurors, and the original prosecutor, over strong objections from Attorney General Steve Marshall, who urged Ivey to respect the jury's verdict. Critics note prosecutors gave contradictory accounts across multiple trials of who fired the fatal shot. Johnson's attorneys continue pursuing a new trial; Ivey has now commuted three death sentences while overseeing 27 executions.
Sources:
Sentiment
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Elections
Alabama’s 2nd District race tightens as redrawn map tests Figures-Marques matchup
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Alabama's redrawn 2nd Congressional District has become one of the nation's most closely watched House races. Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures, who won the seat in 2024 when it was a Black-opportunity district, now faces Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques after a court-ordered redistricting process made the district whiter, more rural, and carried by Trump by roughly 14 points in 2024. That shift makes Marques the favorite, but handicappers like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball still rate the race "likely" or merely "lean" Republican rather than safe.
Turnout among Black voters in Montgomery, the district's largest population center, is seen as decisive for Figures, while Marques leans on the heavily Republican Wiregrass region and an endorsement from Sen. Katie Britt. Figures leads in cash on hand despite similar overall fundraising totals. One recent partisan poll showed the race tied. Analysts say the outcome could help determine whether Democrats retake the House and could expand a bloc of Southern Republicans elected under newly redrawn, less minority-protective maps.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Rhett Marques Marques is described as the favorite in a competitive race, a favorable positioning.
- Katie Britt Britt's endorsement of Marques is portrayed as a political asset boosting his campaign.
- Republican Party (United States) The redrawn map and favorite status favor Republicans, suggesting an expanding Southern GOP bloc.
- Democratic Party (United States) The race is framed as a potential pickup opportunity that could help Democrats retake the House.
- Donald Trump Trump is referenced as having carried the district by a wide margin, a neutral electoral fact though tied to partisan shift.
- Montgomery, Alabama Montgomery is cited as a key population center whose Black voter turnout could decide the race, a neutral to mildly positive civic role.
- Alabama Alabama is mentioned as the setting for the race without specific reputational framing.
- United States House of Representatives Neutral factual reference to the chamber at stake in the election.
- United States Senate Mentioned only as the body Katie Britt serves in, with no direct bearing on reputation.
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Elections
“Beat Ohio” remark becomes flashpoint in Michigan Senate race
PN Team • 2 months ago
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed drew national criticism, including from Rod Blagojevich, Ted Cruz and the Republican National Committee, after saying on TV he couldn't wait for the University of Michigan "to beat Ohio" in football. Critics framed it as proof he didn't know the sport, but Michigan politicians of both parties, including Fred Upton, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Justin Amash, along with the University of Michigan's own social accounts, have long used "beat Ohio" as shorthand for Ohio State.
Separately, U.S. Sen. Elissa Slotkin urged Michigan Democrats to back El-Sayed in his race against Republican Mike Rogers, without formally endorsing him earlier. Retiring Sen. Gary Peters completed his final "Thank You, Michigan" motorcycle tour, with Slotkin joining part of the ride. Rep. Tom Barrett and Democratic challenger Will Lawrence are set to debate Oct. 6 in the closely watched 7th Congressional District race, seen as pivotal to House control.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Elissa Slotkin Portrayed positively as supportive of her party's candidate and active in community events like the motorcycle tour.
- Gretchen Whitmer Cited as a bipartisan example of using the same football phrase, supporting El-Sayed's defense.
- Ted Cruz Named among national critics of El-Sayed's remark, a mildly negative tangential mention.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as El-Sayed's party affiliation amid the controversy, a neutral factual reference.
- Republican Party (United States) Referenced tangentially as the opposing party amid the political criticism.
- Michigan Central location context for the Senate race and political figures discussed.
- Ohio Referenced as the football rival state central to the 'beat Ohio' controversy.
- United States House of Representatives Referenced factually regarding the pivotal 7th Congressional District race.
- United States Senate Referenced factually as the body candidates are running for.
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Elections
Figures says Montgomery turnout will decide his redrawn Alabama House race
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
U.S. Rep. Shomari Figures told the Alabama Democratic Conference that his reelection bid in Alabama's 2nd Congressional District hinges on turnout in Montgomery County and surrounding Black Belt counties. A U.S. Supreme Court ruling in April weakened part of the Voting Rights Act, allowing Alabama to revert to a 2023 legislative map that removed Figures' hometown of Mobile from the district and extended it into the heavily Republican Wiregrass region. The district's Black voting age population dropped from about 49 percent to just under 40 percent, and the seat would have favored Donald Trump by 14 points in 2024.
Figures, who won the seat in 2024 with 54.6 percent of the vote, faces Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques. He said Montgomery County, roughly 31 percent of registered voters, could make up 40 percent of turnout with strong mobilization. National Democrats have launched a six-figure ad buy, while Trump and Senate candidate Barry Moore have urged Republicans to turn out for Marques, calling the seat critical to the House majority.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Mobile, Alabama Mobile's removal from the district is portrayed as a setback for Figures and Black voter representation.
- Democratic Party (United States) Figures is a Democrat and the party's ad buy support reflects investment in retaining the seat, a mildly favorable mention.
- Montgomery, Alabama Montgomery County is highlighted as pivotal to Figures' reelection chances through strong turnout.
- Rhett Marques Marques is portrayed neutrally to favorably as the Republican challenger benefiting from redistricting and national support.
- Donald Trump Trump is mentioned as urging turnout for the Republican candidate, a neutral political activity mention.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican Party is mentioned factually as benefiting from the redrawn map and mobilizing for Marques.
- Alabama Alabama is the factual setting for the redistricting and election dispute.
- United States House of Representatives The House of Representatives is referenced factually as the chamber whose majority is at stake.
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Elections
Alabama 2026 Statewide Races Tighten Ahead of Nov. 3 Election
PN Team • 6 days ago
With Alabama's Nov. 3 election 10 days out, forecasters have shifted two marquee races. Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the U.S. Senate contest between Republican Tommy Tuberville and Democrat Doug Jones from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican," citing polls showing Tuberville leading by just over 10 points. Cook Political Report upgraded Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures' odds of retaining his U.S. House seat against Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques, moving that race from "Likely Republican" to "Leans Republican."
The campaigns have grown contentious: Tuberville, also running for governor, released a policy outline and faced backlash over a proposed state-level DOGE effort and comments on pastors and migration; Jones condemned an AI-driven attack page funded by the state GOP. Both House candidates called for a Republican state lawmaker facing human trafficking-related charges to resign.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Tommy Tuberville Faces backlash over a DOGE proposal and controversial comments on pastors and migration.
- Doug Jones (politician) Portrayed as condemning an unethical attack ad, a modestly favorable framing.
- Republican Party (United States) Associated with a state-level attack ad controversy and a lawmaker facing serious charges.
- Rhett Marques Shown jointly calling for a lawmaker's resignation over trafficking charges, a principled stance.
- Democratic Party (United States) Party's Senate and House candidates mentioned neutrally in competitive race coverage.
- Alabama Named as the state holding the election, a neutral factual reference.
- United States Congress Referenced only as the body whose seats are contested in the election.
- United States House of Representatives Mentioned factually as the chamber in which Figures' seat is contested.
- United States Senate Mentioned factually as the chamber in which Tuberville and Jones are competing.
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Elections
Trump rallies in Mobile to boost Alabama midterm candidates
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
President Donald Trump drew a large crowd to the Mitchell Center in Mobile, Alabama, returning to the city where he held an early breakout rally during his 2016 campaign. The stop kicked off a broader fall campaign push ahead of the November midterms, with the White House planning near-daily appearances in competitive states.
Trump used the rally to back Senator Tommy Tuberville in his gubernatorial bid against former Democratic Senator Doug Jones, Representative Barry Moore's campaign for Tuberville's soon-to-be-vacant Senate seat, and state Representative Rhett Marques, who is running for Alabama's redrawn 2nd Congressional District currently held by Democratic Representative Shomari Figures. Republicans see the seat as a pickup opportunity following redistricting.
Earlier in the day, Governor Kay Ivey and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy broke ground on the $3.2 billion Mobile River Bridge and Bayway project. Strategists noted the rally's location also extends media reach into the conservative Florida Panhandle, reinforcing turnout momentum for Republicans heading into election day.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Depicted drawing large crowds and actively boosting Republican candidates, a favorable portrayal of his political influence.
- Tommy Tuberville Positively highlighted as Trump's endorsed candidate for governor.
- Republican Party (United States) Portrayed as gaining momentum with strong candidates and a pickup opportunity ahead of midterms.
- Rhett Marques Positively featured as a Trump-backed candidate for a competitive congressional seat.
- Doug Jones (politician) Framed as the Democratic opponent being targeted by Trump's rally, a mildly unfavorable positioning.
- Mobile, Alabama Featured positively as host city for a major rally and infrastructure groundbreaking.
- Alabama Setting for the rally and infrastructure announcement, neutral geographic context.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned via Doug Jones and Shomari Figures as the opposing party, framed as facing a pickup threat.
- Gulf Coast of the United States Mentioned tangentially regarding media reach into the Florida Panhandle.
- United States House of Representatives Mentioned factually as the body for which Moore and Marques are campaigning.
- United States Senate Mentioned factually regarding Tuberville's vacant seat.
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Elections
Tuberville ties Alabama governor bid to Trump support, warns against Jones
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Republican gubernatorial nominee Sen. Tommy Tuberville argued Alabama voters should elect him governor because President Trump would not extend the same support to Democratic nominee Doug Jones. "He's not going to help Doug Jones," Tuberville said on "The Jeff Poor Show," adding "that's not going to happen."
Tuberville credited Trump with directing an estimated $20 to $30 billion toward Alabama's economy, though he did not detail which programs or projects made up that figure. He said he hopes to keep working with Trump during the final two years of his presidency on jobs and federal investment in the state. Tuberville did not clarify whether a Jones win would mean Alabama losing federal assistance. He also framed the broader 2026 midterms as a referendum on Trump's agenda, telling voters that backing Republicans down the ballot would determine how much support the president retains in Washington. The Jones campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Portrayed as a powerful ally credited with bringing significant economic investment to Alabama.
- Tommy Tuberville Positioned as a strong Trump ally making a confident, strategic campaign argument.
- Doug Jones (politician) Framed as disadvantaged by lacking presidential support and failing to respond to the story's claims.
- Republican Party (United States) Referenced as the party Tuberville urges voters to support, framed favorably but tangentially.
- Alabama Mentioned as the setting and economic beneficiary without independent reputational framing.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as Jones's party affiliation in a neutral, factual context.
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Leading:
98.5%
Mike Rogers
Vol $73.2k
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Leading:
97%
Gary Palmer
Vol $15k
Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District House Race
Leading:
58.5%
Rhett Marques
Vol $19.7k
How Many House Seats Will Democrats Win in Alabama in 2026
Leading:
60.5%
1
Vol $2.5k
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Leading:
95.5%
Dale Strong
Vol $11.7k
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Leading:
97.5%
Jerry Carl
Vol $17.8k
Alabama Governor Race: Margin of Victory
Leading:
88%
Tuberville, 4+ pts
Vol $488.00
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Leading:
90.3%
Moore, 11+ pts
Vol $8.00