Alabama’s 3rd District House Race: Who Wins in 2026

A Kansas Senate race that few expected to be competitive has tightened into a dead heat, with recent polling showing Republican incumbent Roger Marshall running even with Democrat Adam Hamilton, a megachurch pastor who was a registered Republican until earlier this year. Hamilton leads the Church of the Resurrection, a United Methodist congregation with 24,000 members, and has drawn national attention for a campaign style built around his pastoral background. Outside spending is surging into the race, with Senate Democrats' top super PAC committing $5 million and Republicans pledging $14 million to defend the seat.

The Kansas contest comes amid a broader wave of competitive Senate battlegrounds, including Georgia, Michigan, Maine, Texas, South Carolina, and Iowa, where recent debates turned personal and nonpartisan analysts have shifted ratings on 18 House races in Democrats' favor. For prediction markets, the race underscores growing uncertainty over Senate control in 2026, with a historically safe Republican seat now drawing heavy spending and shifting odds as Hamilton's unconventional candidacy gains traction in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932.

Multiple Louisiana political figures are signaling possible interest in the 2028 presidential race. Former New Orleans Mayor Marc Morial, now head of the National Urban League, told an Oct. 3 panel at the March On! Festival that he is "thinking about running." He appeared alongside former U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu, who encouraged him, and her brother, former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, who has said since April he will decide after the midterms or early next year. U.S. Sen. John Kennedy also raised the possibility on NBC's "Meet the Press," suggesting he could do better than other potential contenders.

None of the three has formed a campaign team, PAC, or fundraising operation, but Kennedy and Landrieu have both published bestselling books and are actively campaigning for allies nationally. Louisiana has never produced a sitting-president nominee with strong local roots; past bids by Buddy Roemer and Bobby Jindal fizzled early. The 2028 field remains wide open on both sides, with JD Vance, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz atop GOP speculation, and Democrats awaiting word from Kamala Harris.

Saginaw County Sheriff William Federspiel, who has held the office since 2009, announced Oct. 8 that he no longer identifies as a Democrat. The move follows his endorsements of Republican gubernatorial candidate John James and U.S. Senate candidate Mike Rogers ahead of Michigan's 2026 election, and comes after local Democratic Party leaders publicly called for him to switch affiliations.

Federspiel cited disagreements over juvenile sentencing reforms, abortion rights, transgender athletes in women's sports, and opposition to "socialist policies" as reasons for his departure. He specifically criticized a recent Miller hearing for a man convicted as a juvenile in a 1997 Saginaw murder. Saginaw County Democratic Party Chairman Brandell Adams said he was not surprised and respected the decision, noting the sheriff had "behaved like a Republican" for years.

Federspiel did not say whether he would join another party or seek re-election when his term ends in two years. James faces Democrat Jocelyn Benson for governor, while Rogers faces Democrat Abdul El-Sayed for Senate, both in competitive 2026 races.

Alabama's redrawn 2nd Congressional District has become one of the nation's most closely watched House races. Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures, who won the seat in 2024 when it was a Black-opportunity district, now faces Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques after a court-ordered redistricting process made the district whiter, more rural, and carried by Trump by roughly 14 points in 2024. That shift makes Marques the favorite, but handicappers like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball still rate the race "likely" or merely "lean" Republican rather than safe.

Turnout among Black voters in Montgomery, the district's largest population center, is seen as decisive for Figures, while Marques leans on the heavily Republican Wiregrass region and an endorsement from Sen. Katie Britt. Figures leads in cash on hand despite similar overall fundraising totals. One recent partisan poll showed the race tied. Analysts say the outcome could help determine whether Democrats retake the House and could expand a bloc of Southern Republicans elected under newly redrawn, less minority-protective maps.

With Alabama's Nov. 3 election 10 days out, forecasters have shifted two marquee races. Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the U.S. Senate contest between Republican Tommy Tuberville and Democrat Doug Jones from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican," citing polls showing Tuberville leading by just over 10 points. Cook Political Report upgraded Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures' odds of retaining his U.S. House seat against Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques, moving that race from "Likely Republican" to "Leans Republican."

The campaigns have grown contentious: Tuberville, also running for governor, released a policy outline and faced backlash over a proposed state-level DOGE effort and comments on pastors and migration; Jones condemned an AI-driven attack page funded by the state GOP. Both House candidates called for a Republican state lawmaker facing human trafficking-related charges to resign.

President Donald Trump drew a large crowd to the Mitchell Center in Mobile, Alabama, returning to the city where he held an early breakout rally during his 2016 campaign. The stop kicked off a broader fall campaign push ahead of the November midterms, with the White House planning near-daily appearances in competitive states.

Trump used the rally to back Senator Tommy Tuberville in his gubernatorial bid against former Democratic Senator Doug Jones, Representative Barry Moore's campaign for Tuberville's soon-to-be-vacant Senate seat, and state Representative Rhett Marques, who is running for Alabama's redrawn 2nd Congressional District currently held by Democratic Representative Shomari Figures. Republicans see the seat as a pickup opportunity following redistricting.

Earlier in the day, Governor Kay Ivey and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy broke ground on the $3.2 billion Mobile River Bridge and Bayway project. Strategists noted the rally's location also extends media reach into the conservative Florida Panhandle, reinforcing turnout momentum for Republicans heading into election day.