Alabama’s 1st Congressional District House Race 2026

Alabama's redrawn 2nd Congressional District has become one of the nation's most closely watched House races. Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures, who won the seat in 2024 when it was a Black-opportunity district, now faces Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques after a court-ordered redistricting process made the district whiter, more rural, and carried by Trump by roughly 14 points in 2024. That shift makes Marques the favorite, but handicappers like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball still rate the race "likely" or merely "lean" Republican rather than safe.

Turnout among Black voters in Montgomery, the district's largest population center, is seen as decisive for Figures, while Marques leans on the heavily Republican Wiregrass region and an endorsement from Sen. Katie Britt. Figures leads in cash on hand despite similar overall fundraising totals. One recent partisan poll showed the race tied. Analysts say the outcome could help determine whether Democrats retake the House and could expand a bloc of Southern Republicans elected under newly redrawn, less minority-protective maps.

President Donald Trump drew a large crowd to the Mitchell Center in Mobile, Alabama, returning to the city where he held an early breakout rally during his 2016 campaign. The stop kicked off a broader fall campaign push ahead of the November midterms, with the White House planning near-daily appearances in competitive states.

Trump used the rally to back Senator Tommy Tuberville in his gubernatorial bid against former Democratic Senator Doug Jones, Representative Barry Moore's campaign for Tuberville's soon-to-be-vacant Senate seat, and state Representative Rhett Marques, who is running for Alabama's redrawn 2nd Congressional District currently held by Democratic Representative Shomari Figures. Republicans see the seat as a pickup opportunity following redistricting.

Earlier in the day, Governor Kay Ivey and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy broke ground on the $3.2 billion Mobile River Bridge and Bayway project. Strategists noted the rally's location also extends media reach into the conservative Florida Panhandle, reinforcing turnout momentum for Republicans heading into election day.

U.S. Rep. Shomari Figures told the Alabama Democratic Conference that his reelection bid in Alabama's 2nd Congressional District hinges on turnout in Montgomery County and surrounding Black Belt counties. A U.S. Supreme Court ruling in April weakened part of the Voting Rights Act, allowing Alabama to revert to a 2023 legislative map that removed Figures' hometown of Mobile from the district and extended it into the heavily Republican Wiregrass region. The district's Black voting age population dropped from about 49 percent to just under 40 percent, and the seat would have favored Donald Trump by 14 points in 2024.

Figures, who won the seat in 2024 with 54.6 percent of the vote, faces Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques. He said Montgomery County, roughly 31 percent of registered voters, could make up 40 percent of turnout with strong mobilization. National Democrats have launched a six-figure ad buy, while Trump and Senate candidate Barry Moore have urged Republicans to turn out for Marques, calling the seat critical to the House majority.

Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville and Democrat Doug Jones escalated their fight for Alabama governor this week, trading accusations over socialism, public education and public safety. In a Mobile radio interview, Tuberville labeled Democrats socialists, tied Jones to figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Zohran Mamdani and Stacey Abrams, and called public schools "government schools" that fail to teach basics while defending the CHOOSE Act as a way to force competition. Jones rejected the socialist label, pointed to his record passing bipartisan bills in the Senate, and said he would phase out the CHOOSE Act to redirect funding to public schools.

Jones also renewed his push for a debate, accusing Tuberville of avoiding unscripted questions, a challenge Tuberville did not accept, instead citing his 2020 Senate win over Jones. On crime, Tuberville pledged more troopers and "law and order" without naming specific communities, while Jones countered by emphasizing his experience as a federal prosecutor. Abrams is set to campaign with Jones in Huntsville, fueling Tuberville's effort to nationalize the race.

Massachusetts lawmakers are considering companion bills (H.3351/S.2134) to create a permanent state commission focused on Muslim residents' interests, including recommending Muslim appointees for government boards. Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), a candidate for Alabama governor, publicly rejected the idea on X, saying no similar measure would pass in Alabama under his watch.

The response has fueled broader commentary urging Tuberville to go further than a social media post, proposing that Alabama pursue legislation asserting the state's Protestant Christian heritage and testing constitutional limits on religious liberty, drawing comparisons to past Alabama fights over Ten Commandments displays and local zoning disputes involving Muslim institutions, such as a withdrawn rezoning request in Hoover. Proponents frame this as a "history and tradition" argument akin to reasoning used in other Supreme Court cases, while acknowledging existing First Amendment doctrine sharply limits what any state could actually enact. The episode highlights ongoing national tension over religious identity, government recognition of minority faiths, and the boundaries of state authority.

Alabama's Black Belt, a historically rich but impoverished stretch of counties across the state's midsection, remains among the poorest regions in the country. Seven Black Belt counties rank in the nation's top 100 for family poverty, with residents facing shortages of maternity care, hospitals, jobs, and internet access. Decades of absentee land ownership, mostly by outside timber interests, has left tax bases weak and local economies struggling.

The discussion follows the Black Belt Community Foundation's presentation of its Legacy Award to Bryan Stevenson, director of the Equal Justice Initiative, for his work on the region. Stevenson and foundation director Chris Spencer argue the state owes the region more than charity — citing its outsized cultural contributions, from quilting to blues and jazz, despite being built on slavery and exploitation. They call for sustained investment, political commitment, and policy changes, including Medicaid expansion and voting access, to transform the Black Belt from the state's poorest counties into a model for opportunity.

Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) won her party's primary in Florida's newly drawn 20th Congressional District, a plurality-Black seat centered on Broward County, after her old 25th District seat was eliminated in Republican-led mid-decade redistricting ordered by Gov. Ron DeSantis. Rather than run in a new, whiter district that favored Trump, she chose to compete in the 20th, drawing criticism from local Black leaders, the Broward Black Democratic Caucus, and Congressional Black Caucus members who saw her candidacy as a threat to Black political representation already weakened by the Supreme Court's rollback of the Voting Rights Act; Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries declined to endorse her.

Wasserman Schultz defeated a divided field of four Black challengers — former Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, rapper Luther "Luke" Campbell, Elijah Manley, and Dale Holness — leaning on seniority, fundraising, and an Appropriations Committee seat while her rivals split the opposing vote. Her win makes her the only white House member representing a plurality or majority-Black district heading into 2027, following the elimination of Rep. Steve Cohen's Memphis district by Tennessee Republicans. The broader Florida redistricting effort cut four Democratic-leaning seats ahead of the midterms.

Texas's Rio Grande Valley, a heavily Hispanic region that backed Trump in 2024 after decades as a Democratic stronghold, is showing signs of swinging back toward Democrats in the 2026 midterms. Reporting from the area finds frustration with aggressive ICE enforcement — including arrests of longtime residents without criminal records — compounding concerns over the cost of living and housing. Voters interviewed describe disillusionment with both parties rather than renewed partisan loyalty, suggesting a persistently volatile swing bloc.

Key races, including Texas's 15th and 34th Congressional Districts, illustrate Republicans distancing themselves from Trump's immigration policies while Democrats highlight ICE overreach and affordability as central campaign themes.

With Alabama's Nov. 3 election 10 days out, forecasters have shifted two marquee races. Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the U.S. Senate contest between Republican Tommy Tuberville and Democrat Doug Jones from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican," citing polls showing Tuberville leading by just over 10 points. Cook Political Report upgraded Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures' odds of retaining his U.S. House seat against Republican state Rep. Rhett Marques, moving that race from "Likely Republican" to "Leans Republican."

The campaigns have grown contentious: Tuberville, also running for governor, released a policy outline and faced backlash over a proposed state-level DOGE effort and comments on pastors and migration; Jones condemned an AI-driven attack page funded by the state GOP. Both House candidates called for a Republican state lawmaker facing human trafficking-related charges to resign.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom capped a multi-state "take it back tour" with eight public events across South Carolina, plus stops in Alabama and North Carolina, intensifying speculation about a 2028 Democratic presidential run. In North Carolina, Newsom campaigned for U.S. Senate candidate Roy Cooper in Charlotte and rallied Labor Day weekend crowds in Monroe, urging Democrats to focus on the 2026 midterms rather than 2028. He accused Trump of ruthlessness, corruption and attempting to "nationalize" elections through mail-in voting restrictions, telling supporters it's time to "fight fire with fire." Newsom told the Associated Press a 2028 decision could come before year's end.

Voters and strategists increasingly frame California itself as Newsom's central liability, with critics warning his state's liberal image could hurt him against rivals like Josh Shapiro and Pete Buttigieg. Republicans, including North Carolina Senate candidate Michael Whatley and local officials, mocked the visits with "Wrong Coast" signs and accused him of trying to "California" their states. Newsom's team counters that his progressive record on health care, wages and climate could be an asset in a Democratic primary. South Carolina, hosting Democrats' first 2028 primary, remains a key early proving ground alongside hopefuls like Cory Booker.