Elections
Arkansas 1st Congressional District House Race Winner
Arkansas’s 1st Congressional District, a rural, heavily Republican-leaning seat in the eastern part of the state, will hold elections in 2026 as part of the broader U.S. House midterm cycle. The district has been reliably Republican for years, but every House race carries stakes for the chamber’s overall balance of power. Candidates from both major parties are expected to compete for the seat.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House hinges on the cumulative outcome of races like this one, shaping the legislative agenda for the next two years. Even in districts considered safe for one party, shifts in turnout or candidate strength can signal broader national trends heading into the midterms. Arkansas’s 1st District result will contribute to the national tally that determines which party governs the House.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question is straightforward: which party’s nominee will win the seat. Markets isolate partisan control as the tradeable variable, distilling a multi-candidate contest into a binary outcome. Traders effectively weigh historical district performance against any signs of an unusually competitive cycle, translating regional political dynamics into a single resolvable proposition ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Related terms
Total Volume
$107.1k
Kalshi $22.2k · Polymarket $84.8k
Leading Market
Rick Crawford
Kalshi 96% · Polymarket 98%
Rick Crawford Volume
$43.1k
Kalshi $11.7k · Polymarket $31.4k
Rick Crawford 24h Change
-3.00%
Kalshi 0.00% · Polymarket -3.00%
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Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rick CrawfordRepublican Party | 98.6¢ | 7.0% | , trade Rick Crawford on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 99.0¢ | 5% | , trade Rick Crawford on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Terri Yarbrough GreenDemocratic Party | 4.3¢ | 7.0% | , trade Terri Yarbrough Green on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 4.0¢ | 5% | , trade Terri Yarbrough Green on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rick CrawfordRepublican Party | $43,134.70 | ||
| Terri Yarbrough GreenDemocratic Party | $63,928.00 |