Voter turnout

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, seeking a fourth term against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, faces a closer-than-expected race amid rural backlash over data centers, school vouchers, and an unpopular Iran conflict. Public polling shows Hinojosa within striking distance, an unusual position for Texas' dominant GOP leader. Abbott is deploying his extensive "Abbott Impact App" turnout operation, built on thousands of volunteers and voter data, to aid his own campaign and that of Attorney General Ken Paxton, who faces Democrat James Talarico in a competitive Senate race.

Democrats are meanwhile building new grassroots infrastructure in traditionally Republican counties like Brazoria, hoping demographic shifts and sustained organizing can finally end the party's three-decade statewide losing streak.

Ahead of Nov. 3 elections, early voting has topped recent midterm totals in multiple states. In Ohio, nearly 1.5 million ballots were cast by Oct. 30 — about 907,000 in person and 580,000 by mail — exceeding 2018 and 2022 totals, with voters favoring in-person voting over mail ballots. In Missouri's St. Louis County, more than 130,000 people voted early, already surpassing the county's entire 2022 midterm early-voting turnout, aided by an expansion from seven to 200 polling sites. South Carolina has also seen record turnout for its gubernatorial election, with nearly 950,000 ballots cast statewide as of Oct. 24, the highest early total since the state introduced early voting in 2022.

Ohio's races include every statewide executive office plus U.S. Senate and House seats that could shift Washington's balance of power; unaffiliated voters lead turnout there, narrowly ahead of Democrats and Republicans. Missouri officials caution strong early turnout doesn't guarantee a higher overall total, noting 2024's election-day surge. Ohio's early in-person voting ends Nov. 1, with ballots due by 7:30 p.m. on Election Night; South Carolina's early voting period runs through Oct. 31.

Arizona Democrats say they are "cautiously optimistic" about flipping the state Legislature, where Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both the Senate (17-13) and House (33-27). House Minority Leader Oscar De Los Santos points to a cost-of-living backlash against Republican policies as a key factor, while Senate Pro Tempore T.J. Shope says the GOP's candidates and messaging will hold the majority. Every seat in both chambers is up for election, but only a handful of districts are genuinely competitive. If Democrats win both chambers alongside Gov. Katie Hobbs's re-election, it would end years of divided government and Hobbs's record pace of vetoes.

Broward County's Supervisor of Elections, Joe Scott, is urging voters to hand-deliver mail-in ballots after complaints of slow postal delivery, with some ballots taking nearly two weeks to arrive or failing to arrive at all; the U.S. Postal Service says it is investigating. Neighboring Miami-Dade County reported no similar delays. In Philadelphia, officials highlighted security at the city's Election Warehouse and urged roughly 40,000 voters still holding mail ballots to return them in person, noting postmarks do not count. In Ohio, heavy early voting turnout in Franklin County has strained absentee mail delivery, with some overseas ballots stalled in transit as the Election Day deadline nears.

Elsewhere, Knox County, Tennessee reported more than 102,000 early votes cast ahead of its November 3 election, with officials reminding absentee voters that completed ballots must reach the county election commission by the close of polls on Election Day, not simply be postmarked by then.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton toured the Youngstown Business Incubator and rallied in Liberty, stressing ties to Mahoning and Trumbull counties ahead of Election Day against Republican Vivek Ramaswamy. Acton has repeatedly addressed a Ramaswamy-backed ad featuring her estranged mother, calling her a liar and alleging mental health issues; Gov. Mike DeWine called it exploitative. Both candidates are closing with pitches on Ohio's affordability crisis, with Ramaswamy touting his business background and property-tax executive orders, and Acton emphasizing public-service experience, a working families tax cut, and school funding.

Ramaswamy has self-funded and outspent Acton nearly $80 million to $34 million overall, though Acton has outraised him recently; both have shattered Ohio's gubernatorial fundraising record, and neither has held elected office before. Democrats are banking on a late push, including a Cleveland rally with Barack Obama and expanded early voting, as prediction markets show Acton favored heading into Election Day.

More than 6.4 million Texans cast ballots during early voting, surpassing the state's previous non-presidential-year record of 5.5 million set in 2018. The figures exclude mail-in ballots. Analysts point to the closely watched Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, now the most expensive Senate contest in history with over $560 million in combined ad spending, as the main driver of turnout. The governor's race between Greg Abbott and Gina Hinojosa, plus growth in suburban counties like Collin County, also contributed. Some experts project total turnout could reach 10 million votes, which would break the state's all-time midterm record.

Election Day voting runs Tuesday from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.

Michigan's open Senate race between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul el Sayed, vying to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters, has become a focal point in the fight for Senate control. Rogers is running a well-funded, high-intensity campaign—over $133 million in advertising and millions of door knocks—marking the most serious GOP statewide operation since 2014. Michigan hasn't elected a Republican senator since 1994, but polling shows a competitive race amid broader uncertainty about midterm turnout and Democratic advantages nationally.

If Republicans lose seats elsewhere, Michigan could determine whether the GOP retains a narrow Senate majority via the vice president's tiebreaking vote, making it one of the cycle's most consequential contests.

Early voting continues to outpace prior midterm cycles ahead of the Nov. 3 election. Nationally, more than 12.6 million Americans have voted early, with a CNN analysis of 25 states finding Democrats leading turnout among both high- and low-propensity voters, especially in Kansas and North Carolina. Iowa absentee ballots are up nearly 30% from four years ago, and Florida has topped 3.5 million ballots cast with Republicans narrowly ahead. Oklahoma saw a 41% jump in first-day turnout over 2022, driven largely by Democrats and independents, though Republicans still led overall. In Buncombe County, N.C., turnout has already surpassed all of 2022. Analysts caution early returns don't reliably predict final results.