Hawaii Governor Election: Voter Turnout Threshold
Hawaii voters head to the polls on November 3, 2026, to elect their next governor. Incumbent Josh Green is expected to seek reelection, with the race shaped by the state’s cost-of-living pressures, housing shortages, and recovery efforts following the 2023 Maui wildfires. Turnout in Hawaii’s gubernatorial elections has historically trailed national averages, making this cycle’s participation level a notable storyline on its own.
Turnout levels shape how representative an election outcome feels and can influence down-ballot races across the state. Hawaii’s unique geography, large military and transplant population, and mail-voting system each affect how many residents ultimately cast ballots. Higher or lower participation than past cycles could signal shifting civic engagement in a state that rarely draws national political attention.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Outcome
This market isolates a single measurable question: how many total votes will be cast in Hawaii’s governor race. Rather than forecasting who wins, it asks traders to judge whether turnout clears a series of numeric thresholds. That turns a civic participation question into a quantifiable range bet, reflecting assumptions about enthusiasm, demographic turnout patterns, and historical baselines rather than candidate preference.
Total Volume
$17.6k
Kalshi $8.1k · Polymarket $9.6k
Leading Market
Above 310K
Kalshi 92% · Polymarket 5%
Above 310K Volume
$30.60
Kalshi $30.30 · Polymarket $0.30
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 310K | 99.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Above 310K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 99.0¢ | 5% | , trade Above 310K on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Above 330K | 92.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Above 330K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
| Above 350K | 79.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Above 350K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
| Above 340K | — | — | — | 72.0¢ | 5% | , trade Above 340K on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Above 370K | 62.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Above 370K on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 45.0¢ | 5% | , trade Above 370K on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 310K | $30.60 | ||
| Above 330K | $132.00 | No market | |
| Above 350K | $114.00 | No market | |
| Above 340K | $39.29 | No market | |
| Above 370K | $850.43 |