Vermont Governor Race: Margin of Victory

Vermont Governor Phil Scott, a Republican and one of the most popular governors in the country over the past decade, is facing an unexpectedly competitive reelection fight against Democratic challenger Amanda Janoo, a political newcomer and economic policy adviser. Recent polls show Scott's lead narrowed to single digits or erased entirely, with fewer than half of Vermonters approving of his job performance for the first time in his tenure.

Janoo, 39, won the Democratic nomination by running an unapologetically progressive campaign, emphasizing affordability, health care access, and opposition to AI data centers, contrasting her platform with what she calls Scott's "managed decline" of the state. She has also outraised Scott in campaign donations. Scott, 68, has countered by questioning her lack of legislative experience and the cost of her proposals, including universal primary and preventive health care funded by new taxes on high earners.

The Republican Governors Association recently made its first investment in the race, signaling national attention to a contest that could test whether even moderate, anti-Trump Republicans are vulnerable amid broader anti-incumbent sentiment. No Vermont incumbent governor has lost reelection since 1962.

Vermont election officials removed roughly 900 people from the state's voter rolls after an audit found they had been mistakenly registered through the state's "motor voter" program, which automatically registers people to vote when applying for a driver's license. Officials said the errors, attributed to human mistakes during procedure changes and IT upgrades over 25 years, mistakenly sent about 20,000 names to the secretary of state's office despite those people having opted out. Most had registered elsewhere and remained on the rolls; about 900 had not and were removed. None of the affected individuals had ever cast a ballot, officials said, so no past elections were affected.

Democratic Secretary of State Sarah Copeland Hanzas and Republican Governor Phil Scott jointly disclosed the issue, framing their transparency as a model amid national scrutiny of election administration. The cleanup, prompted partly by a similar scandal in New Jersey involving noncitizen registrations, comes as courts weigh President Trump's push to restrict mail-in voting ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms. It remains unclear how many of the removed registrants were ineligible due to citizenship status. Officials defended Vermont's mail balloting system as secure despite the disclosed errors.

A New York Times/Siena University poll released Sept. 24 shows Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, leading Democratic challenger Troy Jackson 49% to 46%, the best result for Collins in any public poll since Jackson entered the race in July. A separate UMass Lowell/YouGov poll taken earlier in September had Jackson ahead by five points, underscoring how close and unsettled the race remains.

Collins is the only Republican senator up for reelection in a state Trump largely lost in 2024, making the seat a top Democratic target. She has historically outperformed polling, having won comfortably in 2020 despite trailing throughout that campaign. The Times poll was conducted largely before a Sept. 22 ProPublica report alleging a pay-to-play scheme tied to her 2020 campaign, which Collins denies, calling it a "partisan hit job." Jackson, a former Maine Senate president, entered the race after primary winner Graham Platner dropped out amid misconduct allegations. Voters see Collins favorably despite her largely pro-Trump voting record in 2025, while a majority in Maine disapprove of Trump's job performance.

Republican Paul LePage, the former two-term Maine governor known as "Trump before Trump," was expected to easily flip the open 2nd District seat after Democratic Representative Jared Golden's retirement. Instead, rising fuel and living costs tied to tariffs and the Iran conflict have narrowed the race against Democratic State Auditor Matt Dunlap, who won a contested primary after Golden initially withdrew. Polls show a close contest in a district Trump carried by nine points in 2024, prompting heavy outside spending and visits from Speaker Mike Johnson and Vice President JD Vance. LePage, 78, has softened his combative style and touted his access to Trump, while Dunlap emphasizes cost-of-living concerns and LePage's past Medicaid expansion vetoes. The race is seen as the GOP's best chance to flip a Democratic-held seat this cycle.

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass faces a tough reelection fight against city council member Nithya Raman, backed by the Democratic Socialists of America, ahead of the Nov. 3 election. Bass, who won just 34% in the June primary, is seeking a second term after a rough first stint marked by the Palisades Fire and rising homelessness. Raman, 45, represents a generational and ideological shift, echoing New York's election of democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani, though she lacks major local endorsements compared to Bass's establishment backing from Newsom, Harris, and Pelosi. The candidates differ sharply on policing and homelessness, with turnout so far low amid broad voter disillusionment.

Sen. Ed Markey, 80, has defeated Rep. Seth Moulton, 47, in Massachusetts' Democratic Senate primary, turning back a generational-change challenge to secure his party's nomination for a third full term. Moulton, a Marine veteran and moderate, argued Markey's decades in Washington hadn't delivered results, while Markey rallied progressives by citing his 2022 climate legislation and backing from Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Moulton also faced criticism over 2024 remarks on transgender athletes, which he apologized for; in his concession speech he pledged to support Markey and said his campaign had started necessary conversations. Markey, who beat Joe Kennedy III in 2020, now advances as the favorite against Republican John Deaton, who was unopposed in his primary and previously lost to Warren by about 20 points, and Markey says he won't seek a fourth term if reelected.

Similar generational contests played out down-ballot: Rep. Stephen Lynch, 71, defeated attorney Patrick Roath, 39, in the 8th District, and Rep. Richard Neal, 77, defeated progressive teacher Jeromie Whalen, 39, in the 1st District, with older incumbents prevailing in both races. A crowded six-way race also continues to replace Moulton in the 6th District, led by Dan Koh and state Rep. Tram Nguyen. Because Massachusetts leans heavily Democratic, these primaries effectively decide the general election winners in November.

State Rep. David Morales, 27, a democratic socialist endorsed by Bernie Sanders and Ro Khanna, defeated incumbent Mayor Brett Smiley, 47, in Providence's Democratic primary by a 53%-48% margin, marking the first time a sitting Providence mayor has lost a primary. Morales is heavily favored over Republican Dave Talan in November and would become the city's youngest-ever mayor if elected. Smiley had touted falling crime and the city's regained control over its schools, while Morales built his campaign around affordable housing, rent stabilization, and other progressive policies like social housing and housing cooperatives.

The race became entangled with Israel-related politics: Smiley, who converted to Judaism in 2024, drew criticism from Morales over his role in a pro-Israel advocacy summit, while Smiley opposed a binding November ballot measure — which Providence voters will decide as the largest U.S. city to do so — that could restrict city investment in companies linked to Israel. Smiley also faced backlash over vetoing a rent-control ordinance Morales supported. Providence's police union has voiced unease about Morales, citing his past calls to defund police and warning of possible officer departures, though Morales says he wants to work with law enforcement. Rhode Island Gov. Daniel McKee also lost his primary the same night.

Shasta County's Board of Supervisors has canceled its contract with Dominion Voting Systems and is weighing a switch to hand-counted ballots, driven by unproven fraud claims embraced by the board's hard-right majority. MyPillow CEO and prominent election denier Mike Lindell praised the move, calling on other counties to follow suit, and offered to help fund any resulting lawsuits after speaking with a Shasta supervisor. Kern County supervisors similarly fielded hours of testimony from residents alleging the county's Dominion system was rigged.

Dominion, one of the largest U.S. voting equipment suppliers and currently in use in 41 of California's 58 counties, said the Shasta decision reflects lasting damage from false claims that spread after President Trump's 2020 election loss. Shasta's clerk and registrar said the county now effectively lacks a voting system. The dispute underscores how 2020 election-fraud narratives continue to shape local election administration well beyond the original battleground states.

Maine Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Troy Jackson is facing renewed scrutiny over his role in passing 2023 legislation that made Maine the first state to decriminalize selling sex. As Maine Senate president, Jackson voted for the bill, presided over its passage, and signed it before it went to the governor. The law also replaced terms like "prostitute" with "person for prostitution" and "prostituted" throughout state statute.

The measure drew opposition from both sex-worker advocacy groups, who argued for autonomy in the industry, and Maine law enforcement, which cited staffing shortages amid rising overdose deaths, homicides, and crashes. The bill advanced as Maine grappled with a housing shortage, a worsening opioid crisis, record homelessness, and high child food insecurity.

Jackson, who also backed gender-transition policy measures for minors and opposed several girls' sports protection bills, has separately faced scrutiny over workplace conduct allegations, his decades-long relationship with a second cousin, and past tax and assault issues. He won the Democratic nomination in July and will challenge incumbent Sen. Susan Collins.