Vermont At-Large House Seat: 2026 Winner

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass faces a tough reelection fight against city council member Nithya Raman, backed by the Democratic Socialists of America, ahead of the Nov. 3 election. Bass, who won just 34% in the June primary, is seeking a second term after a rough first stint marked by the Palisades Fire and rising homelessness. Raman, 45, represents a generational and ideological shift, echoing New York's election of democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani, though she lacks major local endorsements compared to Bass's establishment backing from Newsom, Harris, and Pelosi. The candidates differ sharply on policing and homelessness, with turnout so far low amid broad voter disillusionment.

Sen. Ed Markey, 80, has defeated Rep. Seth Moulton, 47, in Massachusetts' Democratic Senate primary, turning back a generational-change challenge to secure his party's nomination for a third full term. Moulton, a Marine veteran and moderate, argued Markey's decades in Washington hadn't delivered results, while Markey rallied progressives by citing his 2022 climate legislation and backing from Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Moulton also faced criticism over 2024 remarks on transgender athletes, which he apologized for; in his concession speech he pledged to support Markey and said his campaign had started necessary conversations. Markey, who beat Joe Kennedy III in 2020, now advances as the favorite against Republican John Deaton, who was unopposed in his primary and previously lost to Warren by about 20 points, and Markey says he won't seek a fourth term if reelected.

Similar generational contests played out down-ballot: Rep. Stephen Lynch, 71, defeated attorney Patrick Roath, 39, in the 8th District, and Rep. Richard Neal, 77, defeated progressive teacher Jeromie Whalen, 39, in the 1st District, with older incumbents prevailing in both races. A crowded six-way race also continues to replace Moulton in the 6th District, led by Dan Koh and state Rep. Tram Nguyen. Because Massachusetts leans heavily Democratic, these primaries effectively decide the general election winners in November.

Shasta County's Board of Supervisors has canceled its contract with Dominion Voting Systems and is weighing a switch to hand-counted ballots, driven by unproven fraud claims embraced by the board's hard-right majority. MyPillow CEO and prominent election denier Mike Lindell praised the move, calling on other counties to follow suit, and offered to help fund any resulting lawsuits after speaking with a Shasta supervisor. Kern County supervisors similarly fielded hours of testimony from residents alleging the county's Dominion system was rigged.

Dominion, one of the largest U.S. voting equipment suppliers and currently in use in 41 of California's 58 counties, said the Shasta decision reflects lasting damage from false claims that spread after President Trump's 2020 election loss. Shasta's clerk and registrar said the county now effectively lacks a voting system. The dispute underscores how 2020 election-fraud narratives continue to shape local election administration well beyond the original battleground states.

Ohio's Senate race between Republican incumbent Jon Husted and Democrat Sherrod Brown has become a bellwether contest as both parties battle for control of the chamber. Husted, appointed to fill JD Vance's seat, faces backlash over his past promotion of tax breaks that brought more than 200 data centers to Ohio, including one under construction in Pike County expected to be the world's largest. Ohio's projected sales tax giveaway to data centers ballooned from an estimated $136 million to more than $1.5 billion, fueling voter anger over electricity costs, water use, and air quality. Husted notes the incentives originated in 2011 and expanded under Gov. John Kasich, before his time in statewide economic development roles, and he has since backed pausing the tax breaks and co-sponsored legislation making data center operators help cover grid costs.

Brown, who lost his Senate seat in 2024, is courting working-class voters in areas like the Mahoning Valley that have drifted toward Trump. Both candidates now say data centers should cover their own power and infrastructure costs and that local communities should have final say on new projects, though Brown wants residents given more information before approvals, while neither favors halting data center growth outright. Both campaigns have combined for well over $150 million in ad spending, with outside groups like Elon Musk's America PAC adding pressure to a race seen as pivotal to Senate control.

Minnesota voters went to the polls August 11 in Democratic primaries pitting moderate Rep. Angie Craig against progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan for the open Senate seat left by retiring Sen. Tina Smith. Flanagan drew backing from Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Ilhan Omar and Smith herself, while Craig secured establishment support from Hakeem Jeffries, Nancy Pelosi, Pete Buttigieg and Gwen Walz, and roughly doubled Flanagan's fundraising. The race centered on Craig's contested vote for the Laken Riley Act, which she has since disavowed, immigration enforcement after federal agents killed two protesters during "Operation Metro Surge," and clashing views on Israel and AIPAC funding. On the Republican side, Michele Tafoya leads a fundraising-heavy field including party-endorsed Adam Schwarze and Royce White, while Amy Klobuchar faces minimal opposition for governor against Republicans Mike Lindell (Trump-endorsed), Lisa Demuth and Kendall Qualls, as the GOP seeks its first statewide win since 2006.

Craig's departure also triggered a six-way Democratic primary for her open 2nd Congressional District seat. The results will help determine whether Democrats lean moderate or progressive heading into the midterms and test Republican hopes of ending their statewide losing streak. Prediction markets, which favored Flanagan and Craig-adjacent dynamics entering Election Day, are watching outcomes as an early signal for the broader 2026 fight over Congress and Minnesota's state government.

Massachusetts voters headed to the polls Tuesday in a primary highlighted by a competitive Democratic Senate contest between incumbent Sen. Ed Markey, 80, and U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton, 47. The race reverses a familiar dynamic in this year's Democratic primaries, with progressives Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez backing the incumbent over the more moderate challenger. Markey held a large fundraising advantage and led recent polls by double digits; Moulton, a Marine veteran and 2020 presidential candidate, drew support from The Boston Globe's editorial board, New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill, and VoteVets. Moulton has also faced scrutiny over past comments on transgender athletes, which he has since apologized for. The primary winner will face Republican John Deaton in November.

Similar generational clashes played out down-ballot: progressive attorney Patrick Roath, who has spent more than $1 million on his campaign, challenged longtime Rep. Stephen Lynch in the 8th District, while a crowded six-way Democratic field, including Dan Koh and Tram Nguyen, competed to succeed Moulton in the 6th District. Other notable races include a Republican gubernatorial primary between Mike Minogue and Brian Shortsleeve, and contested district attorney races in Norfolk and Suffolk counties. Given the state's heavy Democratic lean, primary winners are strongly favored in November, with results shaping the competitive landscape ahead of the 2026 midterms.

Vermont Governor Phil Scott, a Republican and one of the most popular governors in the country over the past decade, is facing an unexpectedly competitive reelection fight against Democratic challenger Amanda Janoo, a political newcomer and economic policy adviser. Recent polls show Scott's lead narrowed to single digits or erased entirely, with fewer than half of Vermonters approving of his job performance for the first time in his tenure.

Janoo, 39, won the Democratic nomination by running an unapologetically progressive campaign, emphasizing affordability, health care access, and opposition to AI data centers, contrasting her platform with what she calls Scott's "managed decline" of the state. She has also outraised Scott in campaign donations. Scott, 68, has countered by questioning her lack of legislative experience and the cost of her proposals, including universal primary and preventive health care funded by new taxes on high earners.

The Republican Governors Association recently made its first investment in the race, signaling national attention to a contest that could test whether even moderate, anti-Trump Republicans are vulnerable amid broader anti-incumbent sentiment. No Vermont incumbent governor has lost reelection since 1962.

Vermont election officials removed roughly 900 people from the state's voter rolls after an audit found they had been mistakenly registered through the state's "motor voter" program, which automatically registers people to vote when applying for a driver's license. Officials said the errors, attributed to human mistakes during procedure changes and IT upgrades over 25 years, mistakenly sent about 20,000 names to the secretary of state's office despite those people having opted out. Most had registered elsewhere and remained on the rolls; about 900 had not and were removed. None of the affected individuals had ever cast a ballot, officials said, so no past elections were affected.

Democratic Secretary of State Sarah Copeland Hanzas and Republican Governor Phil Scott jointly disclosed the issue, framing their transparency as a model amid national scrutiny of election administration. The cleanup, prompted partly by a similar scandal in New Jersey involving noncitizen registrations, comes as courts weigh President Trump's push to restrict mail-in voting ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms. It remains unclear how many of the removed registrants were ineligible due to citizenship status. Officials defended Vermont's mail balloting system as secure despite the disclosed errors.

State Rep. David Morales, 27, a democratic socialist endorsed by Bernie Sanders and Ro Khanna, defeated incumbent Mayor Brett Smiley, 47, in Providence's Democratic primary by a 53%-48% margin, marking the first time a sitting Providence mayor has lost a primary. Morales is heavily favored over Republican Dave Talan in November and would become the city's youngest-ever mayor if elected. Smiley had touted falling crime and the city's regained control over its schools, while Morales built his campaign around affordable housing, rent stabilization, and other progressive policies like social housing and housing cooperatives.

The race became entangled with Israel-related politics: Smiley, who converted to Judaism in 2024, drew criticism from Morales over his role in a pro-Israel advocacy summit, while Smiley opposed a binding November ballot measure — which Providence voters will decide as the largest U.S. city to do so — that could restrict city investment in companies linked to Israel. Smiley also faced backlash over vetoing a rent-control ordinance Morales supported. Providence's police union has voiced unease about Morales, citing his past calls to defund police and warning of possible officer departures, though Morales says he wants to work with law enforcement. Rhode Island Gov. Daniel McKee also lost his primary the same night.

California's Democratic presidential primary is set for March 3, Super Tuesday, but the state's outcome will likely hinge on results from Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, which vote earlier. Kamala Harris's exit from the race last week has fueled speculation about who benefits, but strategists note she had only modest California support (7-8% in late-2019 polling), with Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren leading, followed by Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg. Analysts expect California voters and donors to wait and see how candidates perform elsewhere before committing, since mail voting begins February 3, the same day as the Iowa caucuses.

Democratic strategists point out California has a history of backing eventual losers, including Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama in 2008. Michael Bloomberg, skipping the four early states, is banking on a stumble by frontrunners to gain traction on Super Tuesday. Gov. Gavin Newsom, who endorsed Harris, is being courted by rival campaigns but isn't expected to endorse soon. Harris's network of California donors and fundraisers is now considered up for grabs among the remaining candidates.