Total Volume
$2.8m
Kalshi $133.8k · Polymarket $2.7m
Leading Market
Vicente Gonzalez
Kalshi 89%
Vicente Gonzalez Volume
$56k
Kalshi $56k
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicente GonzalezDemocratic Party | 89.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
— | — | — |
| Vicente Gonzalez Jr.Democratic Party | — | — | — | 89.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Eric FloresRepublican Party | 12.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
12.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Politics
Minnesota sues Texas Gov. Abbott over delayed extradition of ICE agent
PN Team • 2 months ago
Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison has sued Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Cameron County Sheriff Manuel Trevino in federal court, seeking to force Abbott to sign extradition paperwork for ICE agent Christian Castro. This follows a judge's earlier denial of Minnesota's request for a restraining order to keep Castro jailed in Texas amid the extradition dispute. Castro faces four felony counts of second-degree assault and a misdemeanor count of falsely reporting a crime after a January shooting of Julio Cesar Sosa-Celis in Minneapolis during Operation Metro Surge, with surveillance video contradicting his account. Minnesota's suit argues the nearly three-month delay is unlawful and unusual, noting past extraditions between the states were typically resolved within about 30 days, and cites a 1987 Supreme Court ruling requiring states to honor extradition requests. Abbott, facing reelection, has not commented on the pending matter. Texas law caps fugitive detention at 90 days, making Castro eligible for release around August 26. The Justice Department is reportedly weighing separate federal charges.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Greg Abbott Abbott is being sued for allegedly unlawfully delaying extradition and has avoided public comment, casting him in a negative light.
- Governor of Texas The Texas governor's office is at the center of a lawsuit accusing it of unlawfully delaying extradition.
- Texas Texas is depicted as failing to comply with extradition norms, reflecting negatively on the state.
- Minneapolis Minneapolis is the site of the shooting incident involving the ICE agent, tying it to a controversial event.
- State governments of the United States State governments are referenced generally regarding extradition obligations between states.
- Minnesota Minnesota is portrayed as pursuing legal accountability, a neutral-to-mildly-favorable framing.
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Elections
Texas’ redrawn 35th District pits GOP veteran against Democratic sheriff’s deputy in House battleground
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
Republicans redrew Texas' 35th Congressional District last year hoping to flip it, setting up a San Antonio-area race between Republican Carlos De La Cruz, an Air Force veteran and first-time candidate whose sister is Rep. Monica De La Cruz, and Democrat Johnny Garcia, a longtime Bexar County sheriff's deputy. Both are Latino men with law enforcement or military backgrounds who blur typical partisan lines: De La Cruz echoes anti-corruption, cost-cutting messaging similar to Democrats', while Garcia, a self-described "old school Democrat," breaks with his party on border policy and some social issues.
Analysts rank the 35th as a pivotal test of the GOP's mid-decade gerrymander and of whether Latino voters continue trending Republican after 2024. The district is majority Hispanic by eligible voters but leans Republican as drawn, having favored Trump by double digits last cycle. Spending has topped $9 million combined, with Trump's political network and House Majority PAC both pouring in money. Trump is set to rally for De La Cruz in San Antonio, underscoring national Republican stakes in preserving their House majority through races like this one.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Described as actively campaigning for De La Cruz, reinforcing his political influence favorably from a GOP perspective.
- Monica De La Cruz Mentioned positively as the sitting congresswoman and sister of the candidate, lending family political credibility.
- Law enforcement Referenced as the professional background of both candidates, a neutral descriptor.
- Republican Party (United States) Portrayed as the party pursuing a redistricting strategy and investing heavily to flip the seat, a neutral-to-mildly favorable framing of political effort.
- San Antonio Named as the race's location and site of Trump's rally, a neutral geographic reference.
- Bexar County, Texas Named as Garcia's area of service as sheriff's deputy, a neutral factual reference.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned factually as the party of candidate Garcia in a competitive race.
- Texas Central setting of the redistricting battle, described factually without clear reputational charge.
- United States Referenced implicitly via national political stakes, a neutral contextual mention.
- United States Congress Referenced generally as the body the race will help control, a neutral institutional mention.
- United States House of Representatives Central to the race's stakes but described neutrally as the chamber at issue.
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Elections
Rio Grande Valley Latino Voters Shift Again Ahead of Midterms
PN Team • 1 day ago
Texas's Rio Grande Valley, a heavily Hispanic region that backed Trump in 2024 after decades as a Democratic stronghold, is showing signs of swinging back toward Democrats in the 2026 midterms. Reporting from the area finds frustration with aggressive ICE enforcement — including arrests of longtime residents without criminal records — compounding concerns over the cost of living and housing. Voters interviewed describe disillusionment with both parties rather than renewed partisan loyalty, suggesting a persistently volatile swing bloc.
Key races, including Texas's 15th and 34th Congressional Districts, illustrate Republicans distancing themselves from Trump's immigration policies while Democrats highlight ICE overreach and affordability as central campaign themes.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's aggressive ICE enforcement is linked to voter frustration and disillusionment in a former stronghold.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are shown gaining ground by highlighting ICE overreach and affordability concerns.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are described as distancing themselves from Trump's immigration policies amid voter backlash.
- Texas Texas's Rio Grande Valley is the setting for shifting political sentiment without direct praise or blame to the state.
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Local & State
ICE agent released from Texas jail after judge blocks Minnesota extradition bid
PN Team • 2 months ago
ICE agent Christian Castro was released Thursday from a Cameron County, Texas jail, hours after a federal judge rejected Minnesota's bid to compel Gov. Greg Abbott to sign an extradition warrant and keep Castro detained past Texas's 90-day limit. U.S. District Judge Fernando Rodriguez Jr., a Trump appointee, ruled the case was not yet "ripe" because Abbott had not denied the extradition request, only ordered an investigation into whether Castro qualifies as a "fugitive." Sheriff Manuel Trevino said Texas law required Castro's release once the 90-day window lapsed. His whereabouts afterward were unknown, and it was unclear if he has legal representation.
Castro faces assault and false-reporting charges in Minnesota after shooting Julio Cesar Sosa-Celis during a January 14 Minneapolis ICE operation. Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison, calling Texas a "sanctuary state for violent criminals," cited jailhouse calls about fleeing to Mexico and vowed to keep fighting. Abbott's office said the ruling affirmed his authority to review extradition requests before acting.
Sentiment
- Minnesota Minnesota is portrayed unfavorably via Ellison's comments about Texas being a haven from Minnesota's justice and its failed extradition attempt.
- Greg Abbott Abbott's authority to review extradition requests was upheld by the court, portraying him favorably in the legal dispute.
- Texas Texas is depicted as shielding a criminal suspect, per Ellison's 'sanctuary state for violent criminals' remark, despite legal justification.
- Minneapolis Minneapolis is where the shooting occurred, associating it with a violent incident.
- Governor of Texas The Governor of Texas's office's authority to review extradition requests was affirmed by the court ruling, a mild procedural win.
- Donald Trump Trump is mentioned only as the appointer of the judge, a neutral factual detail.
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In the News
Austin officials demand independent probe after ICE agent shoots Venezuelan man
PN Team • 1 month ago
Austin city leaders and other elected officials are calling for an independent investigation after an ICE agent shot a Venezuelan man Sunday afternoon during a vehicle pursuit while he was making a DoorDash delivery. The man, identified by his attorney Kate Lincoln-Goldfinch as 28-year-old Wilber Rafael Garces Perez, says ICE officers sideswiped his car twice without warning before he was shot in the back of the neck. He was released from a hospital into ICE custody with the bullet still lodged near his spine, held at the Pearsall detention center without pain medication, and briefly returned to the hospital Monday night after complaints of untreated pain. DHS says he had a final order of removal after entering under a Biden-era asylum program later ended by Trump; his attorneys say the order stemmed from a missed hearing notice sent to an old address. Federal sources say ICE had been conducting targeted enforcement using license plate checks when they identified his vehicle.
Austin officials say the city's own EMS was requested by Austin Police, not ICE, though bystander video shows an ICE agent also asking whether an ambulance was en route; federal sources say the agent has been placed on administrative leave, standard practice in such incidents. Homeland Security Investigations and the FBI are leading the probe, with Austin Police and Texas Rangers investigating separately. Mayor Kirk Watson, Police Chief Lisa Davis, DA Jose Garza, and Congressman Greg Casar are demanding transparency and local involvement, noting this is one of at least 28 such shootings by federal immigration agents since 2024.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Greg Casar Casar is shown demanding transparency and accountability, a favorable civic role.
- Donald Trump Trump is referenced as having ended the Biden-era asylum program relevant to the man's removal order, indirectly tying him to the controversy.
- Austin, Texas Austin is the setting and its officials are shown responding proactively, a mildly favorable civic context.
- Law enforcement Law enforcement broadly is tied to the incident and subsequent investigations, a mixed but mostly procedural mention.
- Texas Texas is mentioned as the state where the incident and detention occurred, largely factual context.
- United States House of Representatives Mentioned only as the body Casar belongs to, with no direct evaluative content.
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Local & State
Minnesota Sues Texas Governor Over Refusal to Extradite ICE Agent
PN Team • 2 months ago
Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison has sued Texas Gov. Greg Abbott in federal court in Brownsville, seeking an order compelling extradition of ICE agent Christian Castro, who faces Minnesota charges of assault and falsely reporting a crime after allegedly shooting Julio Cesar Sosa-Celis in the leg during a Jan. 14 Minneapolis raid. Castro was arrested in Texas in May; prosecutors say he fired through a front door and then falsely claimed he was attacked with a broom and shovel, an account contradicted by video. DHS has called the prosecution a "political stunt" and asserts federal jurisdiction, while the lawsuit also names Cameron County Sheriff Manuel Trevino.
Ellison warns Castro could be released under Texas' 90-day bail rule as early as Aug. 26 and potentially flee to Mexico, citing jailhouse calls in which Castro discussed marrying a woman there and buying a house. Abbott's office has repeatedly declined to comment on "pending extradition matters" and has not signed the warrant despite Ellison noting Texas normally processes such requests in about 30 days. Ellison cites a 1987 Supreme Court ruling making extradition compliance mandatory. Hennepin County Attorney Mary Moriarty calls the case "not about politics," while the dispute underscores broader friction between state and federal authority over immigration enforcement.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Greg Abbott Abbott is portrayed negatively for refusing to sign the extradition warrant and declining comment, obstructing justice for an accused agent.
- Governor of Texas The Texas Governor's office is portrayed as stonewalling extradition and refusing comment, casting it in a somewhat obstructive light.
- Texas Texas is depicted as slow-walking extradition and shielding an accused agent, a negative portrayal.
- Minneapolis Minneapolis is the site of the raid and shooting incident, associated with the controversy.
- Law enforcement Law enforcement is tangentially implicated through the ICE agent's alleged assault and false reporting.
- Minnesota Minnesota, via its Attorney General, is portrayed as taking assertive legal action to uphold accountability.
- State governments of the United States State governments are central to the dispute over extradition authority, portrayed neutrally as institutional actors in conflict.
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Judge pauses Trump border wall construction in Texas’ Big Bend amid landowner resistance
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
A federal judge has temporarily halted construction of the Trump administration's border wall in Texas' Big Bend region, a win for landowners who have resisted the $46 billion national project. Plaintiffs argued the administration bypassed regulations in pushing forward; the government has asked the judge to set aside her order while it appeals. Customs and Border Protection says it has built more than 260 miles of barrier under the second Trump administration and plans to spend $7.5 billion fortifying roughly 500 miles of border in Big Bend, where construction began in September.
Ranchers and other property owners have refused survey access, protested at county meetings, lobbied officials against aiding contractors, and are preparing for eminent domain fights. Opposition spans party lines, including a Republican sheriff and Trump voters who say rugged terrain and low crossing numbers make the wall unnecessary there. CBP says it continues pursuing voluntary agreements and will compensate landowners regardless of how access is obtained, while also retaining eminent domain attorneys in anticipation of disputes. The standoff has become a broader test of federal authority over private land.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump The article centers on legal setbacks to Trump's signature border wall project amid landowner resistance.
- Local government Local governments are depicted as sites of landowner protest against the project, a tangential but relevant mention.
- Republican Party (United States) A Republican sheriff and Trump voters opposing the wall slightly complicates the party's image but is largely neutral factual context.
- Texas Texas is the setting for the legal and political conflict, mentioned factually.
- United States The United States is referenced as the governmental entity behind the border wall project facing legal challenges.
- Mexico–United States border The border is mentioned as the site of construction in a factual, non-evaluative context.
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Texas Landowners Mount Growing Resistance to Big Bend Border Wall Project
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Opposition from private landowners in Texas' Big Bend region continues to slow the Trump administration's $46 billion border wall project, part of a plan to build barriers from the Pacific to the Gulf of Mexico. The administration aims to spend $7.5 billion fortifying roughly 500 miles through Big Bend despite historically low illegal crossings there and natural barriers like cliffs and desert terrain. CBP says it has built over 260 miles of new barrier nationwide since Trump returned to office, but a federal judge recently paused Big Bend construction after landowners sued, arguing Homeland Security exceeded its authority by waiving environmental and other protections; the government has asked the judge to lift the order while it appeals.
Many landowners are refusing to let surveyors onto their property, protesting at county meetings, pressuring local officials not to assist contractors, and preparing for eminent domain fights; the Justice Department says about 70 disputes have been referred for legal action nationwide, with 50 resolved and none going to trial, while CBP says it has reached agreements with dozens of other Big Bend landowners. Opposition spans party lines, with Republican ranchers, a county sheriff and Trump voters questioning the project's necessity. Critics frame the dispute as a broader test of federal power over private property, while CBP maintains the infrastructure is needed to prevent a shift in illegal crossings to the area.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump The administration's border wall project, closely tied to Trump, faces legal challenges and bipartisan local opposition.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican ranchers and voters are shown opposing their own party's administration, highlighting internal dissent.
- Local government Local officials are described as facing pressure not to assist contractors, a largely neutral tangential mention.
- Mexico–United States border The border is the subject of ongoing construction and dispute, a neutral contextual reference.
- Texas Texas is the setting for the landowner resistance, a neutral geographic reference.
- United States The United States is mentioned in context of nationwide wall construction figures, largely factual.
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Texas Landowners Sue to Block Border Wall Construction in Big Bend Region
PN Team • 2 months ago
Six landowners and the nonprofit Conserve Big Bend, representing roughly 230 additional landowners across five counties, have sued the Department of Homeland Security, CBP, DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin and CBP Commissioner Rodney Scott in Washington, D.C. federal court to block border wall construction in the Big Bend region of Texas. The suit is part of a broader $46 billion effort to build 30-foot steel bollard walls, vehicle barriers and surveillance infrastructure along the southern border, and seeks an injunction covering the entire region, including barriers inside Big Bend National Park.
Plaintiffs argue DHS unlawfully issued waivers designating Big Bend an area of "high illegal entry," despite the sector accounting for under 1.5% of southwest border apprehensions over five years, and claim landowners' Fifth Amendment due process rights are being violated. Opposition has grown since February, when eminent domain letters went out, drawing bipartisan pushback from sheriffs, officials, tour operators and ranchers who warn the wall would cut off Rio Grande water access, harm tourism, wildlife and sacred sites. Over $7 billion has already been awarded for Big Bend Sector wall contracts.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Markwayne Mullin Mullin is named as a defendant in his capacity as DHS Secretary in the lawsuit over the wall construction.
- Mexico–United States border The border is the geographic context for the wall dispute, mentioned factually without direct reputational judgment.
- Texas Texas is the factual setting for the land dispute without specific reputational framing.
- Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. is mentioned only as the location of the federal court where the suit was filed.
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Philadelphia nun offers support to immigrants facing deportation hearings in Texas
PN Team • 2 months ago
Sister Rose Patrice Kuhn, a 78-year-old Philadelphia-based nun with the Sisters, Servants of the Immaculate Heart of Mary, has spent the past year attending weekly federal immigration court hearings in Harlingen, Texas, offering prayer and moral support to immigrants and their families facing deportation proceedings. Kuhn, who has lived in the Rio Grande Valley since 2022 and previously worked in Chile, focuses particularly on unaccompanied minors, though she now reports roughly a third of young people she encounters are opting to self-deport rather than continue their cases.
Court observations show most adult defendants are also requesting cancellation of removal orders in favor of voluntary self-departure, encouraged partly by a Department of Homeland Security program using the CBP Home Mobile App, which offers travel assistance, a cash exit bonus, and fine forgiveness. Kuhn also noted a growing pattern of judges granting asylum contingent on relocation to third countries rather than immigrants' homelands, including cases separating families across different destination countries.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Philadelphia Philadelphia is associated with the nun's compassionate humanitarian work, casting the city in a mildly favorable light.
- United States The U.S. immigration system is depicted with tangential criticism regarding deportation policies and family separations.
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