Texas’s 27th Congressional District House Race 2026

Texas's Rio Grande Valley, a heavily Hispanic region that backed Trump in 2024 after decades as a Democratic stronghold, is showing signs of swinging back toward Democrats in the 2026 midterms. Reporting from the area finds frustration with aggressive ICE enforcement — including arrests of longtime residents without criminal records — compounding concerns over the cost of living and housing. Voters interviewed describe disillusionment with both parties rather than renewed partisan loyalty, suggesting a persistently volatile swing bloc.

Key races, including Texas's 15th and 34th Congressional Districts, illustrate Republicans distancing themselves from Trump's immigration policies while Democrats highlight ICE overreach and affordability as central campaign themes.

Austin city leaders and other elected officials are calling for an independent investigation after an ICE agent shot a Venezuelan man Sunday afternoon during a vehicle pursuit while he was making a DoorDash delivery. The man, identified by his attorney Kate Lincoln-Goldfinch as 28-year-old Wilber Rafael Garces Perez, says ICE officers sideswiped his car twice without warning before he was shot in the back of the neck. He was released from a hospital into ICE custody with the bullet still lodged near his spine, held at the Pearsall detention center without pain medication, and briefly returned to the hospital Monday night after complaints of untreated pain. DHS says he had a final order of removal after entering under a Biden-era asylum program later ended by Trump; his attorneys say the order stemmed from a missed hearing notice sent to an old address. Federal sources say ICE had been conducting targeted enforcement using license plate checks when they identified his vehicle.

Austin officials say the city's own EMS was requested by Austin Police, not ICE, though bystander video shows an ICE agent also asking whether an ambulance was en route; federal sources say the agent has been placed on administrative leave, standard practice in such incidents. Homeland Security Investigations and the FBI are leading the probe, with Austin Police and Texas Rangers investigating separately. Mayor Kirk Watson, Police Chief Lisa Davis, DA Jose Garza, and Congressman Greg Casar are demanding transparency and local involvement, noting this is one of at least 28 such shootings by federal immigration agents since 2024.

Republicans redrew Texas' 35th Congressional District last year hoping to flip it, setting up a San Antonio-area race between Republican Carlos De La Cruz, an Air Force veteran and first-time candidate whose sister is Rep. Monica De La Cruz, and Democrat Johnny Garcia, a longtime Bexar County sheriff's deputy. Both are Latino men with law enforcement or military backgrounds who blur typical partisan lines: De La Cruz echoes anti-corruption, cost-cutting messaging similar to Democrats', while Garcia, a self-described "old school Democrat," breaks with his party on border policy and some social issues.

Analysts rank the 35th as a pivotal test of the GOP's mid-decade gerrymander and of whether Latino voters continue trending Republican after 2024. The district is majority Hispanic by eligible voters but leans Republican as drawn, having favored Trump by double digits last cycle. Spending has topped $9 million combined, with Trump's political network and House Majority PAC both pouring in money. Trump is set to rally for De La Cruz in San Antonio, underscoring national Republican stakes in preserving their House majority through races like this one.

One year after Gov. Greg Abbott signed Texas's mid-decade "One Big Beautiful Map," redrawing five congressional districts at President Trump's urging, polling suggests Republicans may not be reaping the gains they expected. The redistricting combined Black-majority districts in Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth and paired two Austin Democrats, while shifting South Texas seats to favor the GOP, aiming for a net five-seat pickup for Republicans nationally.

Recent Texas Southern University polling shows Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar leading in District 28 and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez ahead in District 34, despite both districts being redrawn to favor Trump. In District 15, Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz trails Tejano musician Bobby Pulido despite a district redrawn heavily in Trump's favor. District 35, created by merging two Austin Democratic incumbents' territory, remains a contested open seat where House Speaker Mike Johnson recently campaigned for Republican Carlos De La Cruz against Democrat Johnny Garcia.

The shifting numbers, attributed partly to fallout from immigration enforcement, tariffs and inflation, complicate Republican hopes of using redistricting to offset historic midterm losses for the party controlling the White House.

President Trump traveled to Corpus Christi and Lubbock, Texas, to boost Ken Paxton's Senate bid against Democrat James Talarico, part of a final midterm push through traditionally Republican states. Texas has not elected a Democrat statewide in 32 years, but Talarico has gained traction amid Paxton's legal troubles. Elon Musk has poured significant money into stopping Talarico, a point Democrats are using to highlight wealthy influence in politics, echoing a parallel fight in the governor's race between Greg Abbott and Gina Hinojosa. Secretary of State Marco Rubio joined the trip, fueling speculation about his 2028 ambitions, while Vance and Trump also focus on tight races in Michigan and Alaska.

Polling and interviews across Texas point to a significant erosion of Latino support for President Trump since his 2024 gains, driven by frustration over high prices, gas costs, and aggressive ICE enforcement that has rattled South Texas communities and economies. Strategists describe the shift as a rebuke of Republicans rather than genuine enthusiasm for Democrats, who still carry a damaged brand with many Latino voters. The trend could shape Texas's competitive U.S. Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico, as well as newly redrawn majority-Hispanic congressional districts. Analysts expect Latino support for Democrats to partially rebound toward 2018 levels, but caution that voters remain persuadable and increasingly judge candidates individually rather than by party.

Sister Rose Patrice Kuhn, a 78-year-old Philadelphia-based nun with the Sisters, Servants of the Immaculate Heart of Mary, has spent the past year attending weekly federal immigration court hearings in Harlingen, Texas, offering prayer and moral support to immigrants and their families facing deportation proceedings. Kuhn, who has lived in the Rio Grande Valley since 2022 and previously worked in Chile, focuses particularly on unaccompanied minors, though she now reports roughly a third of young people she encounters are opting to self-deport rather than continue their cases.

Court observations show most adult defendants are also requesting cancellation of removal orders in favor of voluntary self-departure, encouraged partly by a Department of Homeland Security program using the CBP Home Mobile App, which offers travel assistance, a cash exit bonus, and fine forgiveness. Kuhn also noted a growing pattern of judges granting asylum contingent on relocation to third countries rather than immigrants' homelands, including cases separating families across different destination countries.

Harris County commissioners gave initial approval to spend $3 million in local tax dollars on three community safety initiatives — HART, RISE, and the county's Domestic Violence Prevention and Intervention programs — after federal budget cuts and declining philanthropic giving threatened their survival. Final approval is expected Thursday, alongside a proposed 7.6% property tax increase meant partly to cover the programs and close a $180 million budget deficit.

The programs, created after the George Floyd protests, have shown measurable results: HART has diverted thousands of hours from deputies and EMS while connecting over 5,000 residents to care; RISE neighborhoods saw a 36% drop in crime; and domestic violence programs have assisted more than 5,000 survivors. The new funding raises total annual investment to roughly $14 million.

The move comes as federal support collapses — the Department of Justice terminated hundreds of grants worth about $500 million nationwide, with Harris and Fort Bend counties alone losing roughly $4 million. Advocates warn that without local or state backing, similar safety-net programs in surrounding rural counties could disappear entirely.