Texas’s 12th Congressional District: 2026 House Race
Texas’s 12th Congressional District, anchored in Tarrant County and the Fort Worth area, holds its 2026 general election on November 3. The seat has long been a Republican stronghold, but redistricting changes and shifting suburban demographics have put it under renewed scrutiny. Voters will choose a representative for a full two-year term in the U.S. House.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House could hinge on a handful of competitive or newly redrawn districts, making every seat relevant to the national balance of power. Texas’s redistricting fights have reshaped district lines statewide, raising questions about how durable traditional partisan advantages remain. The outcome here offers a read on whether redistricting strategy pays off as intended.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question is binary: which party’s nominee wins the seat. Traders are effectively weighing how new district boundaries interact with turnout patterns and candidate strength, isolating partisan control as the single resolving variable. This framing strips away broader national narratives, reducing the race to a direct contest between the Democratic and Republican nominees.
Related terms
Total Volume
$57.2k
Kalshi $10.1k · Polymarket $47k
Leading Market
Craig Goldman
Kalshi 98% · Polymarket 96%
Craig Goldman Volume
$28.9k
Kalshi $3.6k · Polymarket $25.3k
Craig Goldman 24h Change
-3.00%
Kalshi +1.00% · Polymarket -3.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig GoldmanRepublican Party | 97.2¢ | 7.0% | , trade Craig Goldman on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 96.0¢ | 5% | , trade Craig Goldman on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Angela Rodriguez PrillimanDemocratic Party | 4.9¢ | 7.0% | , trade Angela Rodriguez Prilliman on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
| Angela 'Heli' Rodriguez PrillimanDemocratic Party | — | — | — | 5.0¢ | 5% | , trade Angela 'Heli' Rodriguez Prilliman on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Craig GoldmanRepublican Party | $28,937.85 | ||
| Angela Rodriguez PrillimanDemocratic Party | $6,525.03 | No market | |
| Angela 'Heli' Rodriguez PrillimanDemocratic Party | $21,704.96 | No market |