Michigan’s 12th District House Race 2026
Michigan’s 12th Congressional District, anchored in Detroit and Wayne County, heads to the polls in November 2026 to elect its U.S. House representative. The district has been a reliably Democratic stronghold in recent cycles, with voters selecting their nominee in the upcoming primary before the general election decides the seat.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House hinges on hundreds of individual district contests, and each seat carries weight in determining which party sets the chamber’s agenda. Detroit-area voters face decisions shaped by local economic conditions, representation priorities, and broader national political currents heading into the midterms.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The contract reduces a multi-candidate race into a binary question: which party’s nominee wins the general election. Traders are effectively weighing partisan lean against turnout patterns and any late shifts in candidate strength. Because the district’s history favors one party, the market also serves as a gauge of how much uncertainty remains once primaries settle the field.
Related terms
Total Volume
$52.1k
Kalshi $2.2k · Polymarket $49.8k
Leading Market
Rashida Tlaib
Kalshi 98% · Polymarket 99%
Rashida Tlaib Volume
$1.1k
Kalshi $507.91 · Polymarket $582.08
Rashida Tlaib 24h Change
-1.00%
Kalshi 0.00% · Polymarket -1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashida TlaibDemocratic Party | 99.3¢ | 7.0% | , trade Rashida Tlaib on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 99.0¢ | 5% | , trade Rashida Tlaib on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| James D. HooperRepublican Party | — | — | — | 2.0¢ | 5% | , trade James D. Hooper on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| James HooperRepublican Party | 2.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade James Hooper on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rashida TlaibDemocratic Party | $1,089.99 | ||
| James D. HooperRepublican Party | $49,258.50 | No market | |
| James HooperRepublican Party | $1,720.16 | No market |