Texas’s 33rd Congressional District: Who Will Win the House Seat?

Tarrant County, the last large Republican-held county in Texas, has become a focal point of the 2026 midterms as both parties pour resources into the race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. Democrats narrowly won the county in 2018 and 2020 before Republicans reclaimed it in 2022 and 2024, but a January special-election upset by Democrat Taylor Rehmet reenergized the party ahead of this cycle. Demographic shifts—white residents now under 43% of the population, with Hispanic residents nearly 30%—are fueling projections that Talarico could carry the county by several points.

Tensions have escalated after the GOP-led commissioners court cut polling locations by nearly 30%, a move Democrats call voter suppression and Republicans defend as cost-saving. Ted Cruz rallied Republicans in support of County Judge Tim O'Hare, while Talarico has drawn large crowds with billionaire Mark Cuban and local endorsements crossing party lines. Paxton and allies have spent heavily on ads targeting Talarico, while Democrats emphasize economic frustration and voting-rights concerns as they push to flip a county both sides view as a bellwether for Texas.

Early voting is underway in Texas's midterms through Oct. 30, ahead of the Nov. 3 general election. Gov. Greg Abbott faces Democrat Gina Hinojosa, while in one of the most expensive nonpresidential races on record, Republican Ken Paxton battles Democrat James Talarico for U.S. Senate, with ad spending topping $442 million and Republicans outspending Democrats roughly three to one. Polls, including recent FOX News and New York Times/Siena surveys, have shown Talarico consistently ahead since September, raising the possibility Texas could elect a Democrat statewide for the first time since 1994. Trump made three campaign visits backing Paxton, who faces past fraud indictments and an impeachment acquittal. Prominent Texas attorney Thomas J. Henry, who had previously backed Paxton with a $600,000 super PAC donation, has now endorsed Talarico after meeting with him, a notable crossover in the closely watched contest.

Twelve U.S. House seats covering the Dallas-Fort Worth area are on the Nov. 3 midterm ballot, with early voting running Oct. 19-30. Most races feature Republican incumbents—Keith Self, Pat Fallon, Lance Gooden, Jake Ellzey, Craig Goldman, Ronny Jackson, Beth Van Duyne and Roger Williams—facing Democratic challengers, plus a Libertarian in District 26. Three open seats stand out: District 30, vacated by Jasmine Crockett after her Senate run; and Districts 32 and 33, left open by Julie Johnson and Marc Veasey, respectively, after mid-decade redistricting reshaped them from Democratic-leaning to Republican-favored territory. In District 33, Colin Allred faces Patrick David Gillespie. Results are expected after 7 p.m. on Election Day.

Texas' highest criminal court has ended a nearly decade-long legal battle for Fort Worth resident Crystal Mason, leaving in place a lower court ruling that acquitted her of illegal voting and vacating her 2018 conviction. Mason had been found guilty of illegally casting a provisional ballot in the 2016 election while on supervised release for a federal tax fraud conviction. Her ballot was never counted.

Texas law bars felons from voting until they complete their full sentence, but Mason said she was never informed of that restriction. In March 2024, the Second Court of Appeals ruled that lower courts had failed to require proof she knew voting was a crime. The Texas Court of Criminal Appeals agreed to review the case but on Thursday dismissed the state's petition as "improvidently granted" in a 5-4 decision, with four judges dissenting. The court did not rule on how evidence was evaluated below. Mason said she is relieved her "nightmare is over."

Bo French, the Republican nominee for Texas Railroad Commissioner, sparked bipartisan backlash after posting on social media about Asian American students cheering at a University of Texas football game following a comeback win over Ohio State, calling them "foreigners" and saying they showed how "Americans have been displaced by foreigners." Two students identified in the photo, Dhairya Gupta and Rahul Kodali, said they are U.S. citizens and called the post racist; Gupta said the incident showed racism "isn't looked down upon as much as it used to be." UT Austin enrollment data show international students make up less than 10% of the student body, with Asian students, mostly U.S. citizens or permanent residents, accounting for about 22.4% of enrollment. French has refused to delete the posts, denied regret when asked directly, and said "Truth sounds like hate to those who hate the truth," using the controversy for fundraising.

U.S. Sen. John Cornyn condemned the posts as racist, warning that tolerating such intolerance is "how great political parties self-destruct," and Rep. Dan Crenshaw also criticized French. Texas House Speaker Dustin Burrows and GOP representatives including Jared Patterson, Jeff Leach, Matt Shaheen, and Lacey Hull called on French to delete the posts, while former Speaker Dade Phelan called him "unfit for office." Gov. Greg Abbott said the message wasn't his but stopped short of directly condemning French, instead touting support for freezing H-1B visas at universities; he has since endorsed French, as has Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. Attorney General Ken Paxton, facing a Senate primary challenge from Democrat James Talarico, deflected criticism onto Talarico rather than address French's remarks. French previously faced calls to resign as county chair over a poll on Jews versus Muslims.

Texas's largest cities are grappling with widening budget shortfalls driven by inflation, slowing sales tax growth, and stagnant or falling property values. Dallas faces a $51 million gap, Fort Worth $94 million, San Antonio $158 million over two years, and Austin a structural deficit that could exceed $100 million within a decade. Responses vary: Dallas plans layoffs, reduced library hours, and higher non-resident fees at attractions like the zoo; Fort Worth is cutting vacant positions and pay raises while raising its tax rate; Austin raised its rate to the legal maximum without voter approval; and San Antonio is considering its first property tax hike in over 30 years alongside roughly $90 million in cuts.

The squeeze stems partly from a state-imposed 3.5% cap on annual property tax revenue growth without voter approval, with Governor Greg Abbott and legislators pushing further restrictions next session. San Antonio's mayor also wants voters to weigh in on $489 million in public funding for a new downtown Spurs arena, with a council vote on placing the measure on the November ballot pending. Experts point to tax exemptions and restrictive housing policies as compounding factors, urging denser "missing middle" development to broaden tax bases and ease pressure on strained budgets.

Backlash against Flock Safety's license plate reader network continues to widen across the country. In Ohio, Hamilton County Sheriff Charmaine McGuffey has paused use of the county's 75 Flock cameras and payments to the company while seeking answers on data sharing, though she said no misuse occurred among her deputies. In Arizona, Cottonwood became the latest city to suspend Flock use, joining Tempe, Chandler and Pinal County, after community backlash and a statewide review launched by Attorney General Kris Mayes. Cottonwood's city council plans a work session later this month before deciding on the technology's future there.

Florida has gone further, banning local police from placing Flock and similar cameras on state highways and revoking existing permits, after Gov. Ron DeSantis said usage had "gotten out of control." That follows Texas Gov. Greg Abbott's order pausing state funding for the cameras. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found Americans split on Flock, with more opposing than supporting its use, along sharp partisan lines. Flock, which operates roughly 120,000 cameras nationwide, says it supports added privacy safeguards rather than bans. The issue is emerging as a flashpoint in midterm campaigns.

The Fort Worth City Council voted unanimously to approve an $11.25 million settlement with the family of Atatiana Jefferson, resolving all civil claims stemming from her 2019 killing. Jefferson, 28, was fatally shot through a window of her home by then-officer Aaron Dean while she was watching her young nephew; a neighbor had called police for a welfare check after noticing her doors open. Dean was convicted of manslaughter in 2022, the first Tarrant County officer convicted for an on-duty shooting, and was sentenced to more than 11 years in prison.

The settlement still requires probate court approval before taking effect. Under the family's agreement, Jefferson's two nephews, including one who was present during the shooting, will receive larger shares placed in trust until they turn 18, with the rest divided among other family members. Mayor Mattie Parker called the loss "profound and unimaginable," while Jefferson's sister, Ashley Carr, said the case represents a rare instance of both criminal and civil accountability for a police killing.

Dallas Fort Worth International Airport has abandoned an internal proposal to install wudu washing stations for Muslim travelers on the pre-security side of Terminal D, after Texas Gov. Greg Abbott publicly objected and ordered a review of state funding to the airport. Abbott argued that "government-owned airports cannot favor one religion over all others," calling the plan illegal religious discrimination at a taxpayer-funded facility. He directed a review of state grants to both DFW and Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, and asked the U.S. Department of Transportation to investigate.

DFW said the proposal, which had not reached final approval, was privately funded per a filing the airport attributed to an error by its design firm, and that it does not use taxpayer money for operations. After "elevated public interest," DFW accelerated its review and decided not to proceed, saying the project would not deliver the anticipated operational benefits. Houston's IAH has had a similar wudu facility since 2024; Abbott is pressing to have that facility investigated as well. President Trump also weighed in, amplifying coverage of the controversy.