Ohio’s 3rd Congressional District House Race 2026
Ohio’s 3rd Congressional District, anchored in Columbus, holds its general election on November 3, 2026. The seat has long leaned Democratic, with Rep. Joyce Beatty having represented the district for over a decade. Voters will choose between the major parties’ nominees after primaries determine who advances to the fall ballot.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House hinges on hundreds of individual district contests, and Columbus-area voters will help shape national policy direction for the next two years. The outcome also tests whether redistricting or shifting urban-suburban demographics affect a traditionally safe Democratic stronghold. Local results often reflect broader statewide political currents in Ohio.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The market reduces a multi-candidate contest to a binary question: will the Democratic or Republican nominee win the seat? That framing isolates partisan control as the sole variable traders evaluate, stripping away turnout mechanics or campaign narratives. It effectively measures confidence in historical voting patterns holding against any emerging electoral shifts in the district.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
United States House of Representatives -
Ohio -
Redistricting -
Columbus, Ohio -
Joyce Beatty
Total Volume
$61.5k
Kalshi $5.2k · Polymarket $56.3k
Leading Market
Joyce Beatty
Kalshi 98% · Polymarket 98%
Joyce Beatty Volume
$40.3k
Kalshi $4.7k · Polymarket $35.5k
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joyce BeattyDemocratic Party | 98.6¢ | 7.0% |
|
99.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Cleophus DulaneyRepublican Party | 3.3¢ | 7.0% |
|
4.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
Beatty faces Jan. 6 clemency recipient in Ohio’s 3rd District race
PN Team • 1 month ago
Incumbent Democrat Joyce Beatty is defending her seat in Ohio's 3rd Congressional District, which covers most of Columbus, against Republican challenger Cleophus Dulaney in the November 3 election. Beatty, 76, has held the seat since 2012, serves on the House Financial Services Committee, and is campaigning on affordable housing, civil rights, education and the economy.
Dulaney, 66, a local business owner who previously lost a 2020 primary bid for the seat, was arrested by the FBI in 2024 in connection with the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot, facing charges including assaulting a police officer. He received clemency from President Trump on his first day in office as part of a mass pardon covering roughly 1,600 people tied to the attack. Dulaney describes his participation as peaceful protest and says he is running on cost-of-living, immigration and housing issues, though he lacks the Franklin County GOP's endorsement. Notably, records show Dulaney actually resides just outside the district he seeks to represent, while Beatty lives within its boundaries.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's mass pardon of January 6 defendants, including Dulaney, is portrayed as controversial and reputationally damaging.
- Joyce Beatty Beatty is portrayed as an experienced, credentialed incumbent focused on substantive policy issues.
- Republican Party (United States) Dulaney, the Republican challenger, is portrayed negatively due to his Capitol riot involvement and lack of local party endorsement.
- United States House Committee on Financial Services Beatty's service on this committee is noted as a positive credential.
- Columbus, Ohio Columbus is mentioned neutrally as the district's main city.
- Democratic Party (United States) Beatty is identified as a Democrat, a neutral factual label.
- United States House of Representatives The House is mentioned as the body whose seat is being contested, a neutral factual reference.
- Ohio Ohio is mentioned factually as the state of the district.
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Congress
Missouri redistricting case returns to appeals court amid Kennedy Center dispute and shortened House session
PN Team • 1 month ago
The 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals heard arguments Thursday on Missouri's congressional map, a week after the Supreme Court blocked a lower court ruling that would have kept a 2025 GOP-favored map in place. The suit, filed by Rep. Bob Onder (R-Mo.), centers on whether Missouri reverts to its 2022 district lines so close to the upcoming elections, which lawmakers warn could create administrative chaos.
Separately, the Kennedy Center's board closed the performing arts venue, prompting ex-officio board member Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio) to seek an emergency federal hearing demanding an explanation, with the Justice Department ordered to respond. President Trump, after a North Carolina rally with Senate candidate Michael Whatley, returned to the White House to sign executive orders and host a Rose Garden dinner. The Senate is voting on the Protect College Sports Act, while House Speaker Mike Johnson sent members home early for a seven-week recess extending past Election Day.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Missouri Missouri is the subject of a contentious redistricting legal battle that could create administrative chaos.
- Donald Trump Trump is mentioned neutrally attending a rally, signing executive orders, and hosting a dinner without controversy.
- Joyce Beatty Beatty is portrayed as proactively seeking accountability over the Kennedy Center closure, a mild positive but tied to an unresolved dispute.
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Elections
Ohio Secretary of State Race Centers on Voter ID and Drop Boxes
PN Team • 9 hours ago
Ohio voters choose a new secretary of state on Nov. 3, with Republican state Treasurer Robert Sprague, Democratic state Rep. Allison Russo, and Libertarian Tom Pruss on the ballot. The race has turned on two election-policy flashpoints: a proposed constitutional amendment (Issue 3) locking in photo ID requirements, which Sprague backs and Russo and Pruss oppose, and absentee ballot drop boxes, which Sprague wants eliminated while Russo and Pruss favor expanding. Sprague, the best-funded candidate, emphasizes election security and points to fraud cases in other states; Russo argues Ohio's drop boxes are already secure and accuses Republicans of suppressing access. A planned debate between Sprague and Russo never materialized.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are accused of suppressing access, a mildly negative framing within a balanced dispute.
- Democratic Party (United States) Russo, a Democrat, is portrayed as accusing Republicans of suppressing voter access, a factual campaign dispute.
- Robert Sprague Sprague is depicted as well-funded and focused on election security, a mostly neutral factual portrayal.
- Allison Russo Russo is portrayed as defending drop box security and opposing voter ID, a balanced policy stance.
- Ohio Ohio is the setting for a factual description of the secretary of state race.
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Elections
Trump rallies in Youngstown as new poll shows Ohio Senate, governor races within margin of error
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
President Donald Trump held a rally in Youngstown, Ohio, urging supporters to back Republican U.S. Senate candidate Jon Husted against Democrat Sherrod Brown and gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy against Democrat Amy Acton ahead of the November midterms. Speaking at the Covelli Centre, Trump framed the races as a choice to "Put Ohio First" and asked attendees to treat the contests as if he were personally on the ballot. He also announced federal assistance for SOBE Thermal Energy Systems and disclosed that Cleveland will host a new 46,000-square-foot U.S. Navy submarine component repair facility, crediting Husted with securing the project. Jon Gruden introduced Trump, with boxer Jake Paul also appearing.
A new co/efficient poll of 925 likely Ohio voters, taken Oct. 5-6, found both races within the margin of error: Ramaswamy led Acton 45%-43% in the governor's race, while Husted led Brown 44%-43% in the Senate contest, a special election to fill the seat J.D. Vance vacated. Analysts continue to rate both races as toss-ups.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Depicted as a rallying leader driving campaign momentum and announcing federal investment, a favorable portrayal.
- Vivek Ramaswamy Shown leading in the governor's race poll and backed by Trump at a rally, a favorable portrayal.
- Cleveland Named as the site of a new Navy facility, a favorable economic development mention.
- United States Navy Noted as benefiting from a new facility in Cleveland, a favorable mention.
- Amy Acton Portrayed as trailing in the poll against Ramaswamy, a mild negative framing.
- Ohio Central to the competitive election narrative, a neutral factual mention.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned as the party of Husted and Ramaswamy in a neutral electoral context.
- Sherrod Brown Shown trailing slightly in the Senate race poll, a mildly unfavorable framing.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as the party of Brown and Acton in a neutral electoral context.
- United States Senate Referenced as the seat being contested, a neutral factual mention.
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Elections
Ohio governor candidates diverge sharply on abortion policy ahead of 2026 race
PN Team • 1 month ago
Even with abortion rights enshrined in Ohio's Constitution since a 2023 ballot measure, the state's next governor will hold significant sway over how those protections are implemented, from clinic regulation to reproductive-health funding. Courts are still expected to rule in coming years on remaining restrictions, including a 24-hour waiting period and a telehealth medication-abortion ban, giving the governor leverage to veto or champion new legislation from the Republican-controlled General Assembly.
Democratic nominee Amy Acton says she would protect and expand abortion access but has offered few specifics, pointing instead to Ohioans' 2023 vote. As state health director under Gov. Mike DeWine, she both defended abortion restrictions in court and allowed a Dayton clinic to resume procedures. Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, who has called abortion "murder" and backed six-week bans as a 2024 presidential candidate, has declined to detail his gubernatorial plans, though an anti-abortion group says he privately expressed strong support. Libertarian Don Kissick opposes both bans and government efforts to expand access, calling for government to stay out of the issue entirely.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Vivek Ramaswamy Portrayed as calling abortion "murder," supporting bans, and being evasive about his actual plans, which casts him unfavorably.
- Republican Party (United States) Named as controlling the General Assembly and associated with restrictive abortion legislation, a mildly negative framing.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as Amy Acton's party affiliation without additional characterization.
- Ohio Central setting of the story, mentioned factually regarding its constitution and political landscape.
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Elections
Ohio Senate race polling shows wide gap between individual surveys and averages
PN Team • 2 months ago
A Fox News poll conducted Aug. 6-10 shows former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) leading Sen. Jon Husted (R) 53% to 45% in Ohio's U.S. Senate race, matching the same eight-point margin Fox found in late May/early June. However, other surveys and polling averages show a far tighter contest: RealClearPolling's aggregate has Brown at 47.8% and Husted at 47.2%, an AARP poll in June had Brown up just three points, and a New York Times/Siena poll had Husted ahead by three.
Analysts note methodological differences—such as registered versus likely voters—help explain the variation, and caution against treating any single poll as predictive. The Fox survey found inflation and financial strain as top voter concerns, with Brown leading heavily among those who feel they're falling behind financially. Concerns that Husted is too closely aligned with President Trump have risen since June. The same poll showed Republican Vivek Ramaswamy edging Democrat Amy Acton in the governor's race. Husted, appointed after J.D. Vance became vice president, faces Brown on Nov. 3 to serve the remainder of Vance's term.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Sherrod Brown Depicted as leading in most polls, particularly among financially struggling voters, a favorable portrayal.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as the party affiliation of Sherrod Brown without additional characterization.
- Ohio Mentioned as the location of the Senate race, a neutral factual reference.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned as the party affiliation of Husted and Ramaswamy without further evaluation.
- United States Senate Mentioned as the body whose seat is being contested, a factual reference.
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Elections
Ohio lawmakers to reconvene on Ramaswamy’s gas-tax suspension plan
PN Team • 1 month ago
Ohio legislative leaders are scrambling to reconvene lawmakers next week to vote on a proposal from Republican gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy to suspend the state's gas and diesel taxes for 90 days amid surging fuel prices. House Speaker Matt Huffman and Senate President Rob McColley, Ramaswamy's running mate, said their chambers plan to return around Sept. 30, though the effort to secure enough votes and lawmaker attendance was still in flux. The plan, unveiled Monday, would suspend Ohio's 38.5-cents-per-gallon gas tax and 47-cents-per-gallon diesel tax, at a cost of roughly $640 million covered by ODOT reserves, the general fund, and potentially the state's rainy-day fund.
Passing it with immediate effect requires a two-thirds "emergency clause" vote, meaning some Democratic support is needed in the House. Gov. Mike DeWine, who previously blocked a similar moratorium, has not committed to signing it. Critics have called the timing—weeks before the Nov. 3 election, with Ramaswamy facing a competitive race against Amy Acton—politically motivated.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Vivek Ramaswamy Ramaswamy's tax plan is portrayed as a politically motivated election-season maneuver amid a competitive race.
- Mike DeWine DeWine is portrayed as noncommittal and previously obstructive to a similar plan, a mildly unfavorable framing.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic support is needed for the emergency clause, mentioned neutrally as a procedural factor.
- Ohio Ohio is the setting for the tax policy debate, a neutral contextual mention.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican leaders are pushing the plan, framed partly as politically motivated ahead of an election.
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Elections
Ohio lawmakers revise Ramaswamy gas-tax holiday funding plan
PN Team • 1 month ago
Ohio Republican legislative leaders introduced Senate Bill 475 on Monday, revising GOP gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy's proposal to suspend the state's gas tax for 90 days. The bill would use roughly $725 million from the state's projected general fund surplus to replace lost gas-tax revenue, rather than tapping the Ohio Department of Transportation's cash reserves or the state's rainy-day fund as Ramaswamy originally proposed. Gov. Mike DeWine had criticized those funding sources as risky, and lawmakers appear to have shifted course in response, though leaders declined to credit his objections directly. The bill also sets aside $1 million to reimburse gas stations for updating receipt systems.
Republican leaders, including Senate President and Ramaswamy running mate Rob McColley and House Speaker Matt Huffman, aim to pass the bill Wednesday as an emergency measure, requiring supermajority support including at least one House Democrat. The move comes as Ramaswamy faces Democrat Amy Acton, who floated a similar proposal, in a closely watched governor's race just before Nov. 3 early voting begins. DeWine has signaled openness to a funding approach he can support.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Mike DeWine DeWine's earlier criticism is validated as lawmakers shifted funding sources in response, casting him as influential and prudent.
- Vivek Ramaswamy Ramaswamy's original funding plan was criticized and effectively overridden, reflecting mild reputational cost.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican leaders are shown proactively revising and advancing the bill toward passage.
- Amy Acton Acton is mentioned as a rival candidate with a similar proposal, a neutral competitive mention.
- Democratic Party (United States) A Democrat's vote is needed and Acton floated a similar plan, a neutral factual mention.
- Ohio Ohio is the factual setting of the legislative action without added reputational valence.
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Elections
New York Times/Siena poll shows Ohio Senate, governor races tied within margin of error
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
A New York Times/Siena College poll shows Democrats with narrow leads in Ohio's marquee 2025 races, though both contests remain within the margin of error. Democrat Sherrod Brown led Republican Jon Husted 49%-46% in the Senate race, while Democrat Amy Acton led Republican Vivek Ramaswamy 49%-45% for governor. The poll surveyed 616 voters from Sept. 22 to Oct. 1, with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.5 percentage points.
Both races are rated toss-ups by the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Brown and Acton held stronger net favorability than their opponents, drawing more support from younger and non-white voters, while Husted and Ramaswamy performed better among men and white voters. Voters cited the economy as their top concern, followed by inflation and immigration, and a plurality said Ohio is headed in the wrong direction. The same pollster showed Brown and Kamala Harris ahead in Ohio in October 2024, before Republicans won both races that November, underscoring the uncertainty around the latest numbers. Election Day is Nov. 3, with early voting underway.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Amy Acton Amy Acton is shown leading her gubernatorial race with stronger favorability than her opponent.
- Sherrod Brown Sherrod Brown is shown leading his Senate race with stronger net favorability than Husted.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic candidates are shown leading in both races, a modestly favorable portrayal.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican candidates trail narrowly in both polls, a mildly unfavorable but close result.
- Ohio Ohio is the location of the races discussed factually without reputational implication.
- United States Senate The U.S. Senate race in Ohio is discussed factually as a toss-up contest.
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Elections
Ohio Governor’s Race Spotlights Future of Addiction Recovery Policy
PN Team • 4 days ago
Ohio has made gains against opioid addiction and overdose deaths under Gov. Mike DeWine, who championed the RecoveryOhio initiative. With his term ending and a new governor to be elected soon, advocates and lawmakers are watching whether Democrat Amy Acton or Republican Vivek Ramaswamy will keep up the state's focus on treatment and prevention. Acton, who helped lead RecoveryOhio as state health director, pledges to expand treatment access and hold corporations accountable; Ramaswamy's campaign says he supports continuing the initiative and prioritizes behavioral health. Legislators cite concerns including workforce impacts from failed drug tests, looming Medicaid funding cuts, and debate over expanding treatments like cannabis and psilocybin for addiction-linked depression.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Mike DeWine Credited with championing a successful addiction recovery initiative during his term.
- Amy Acton Portrayed as a past leader of a successful initiative who now pledges expanded treatment and corporate accountability.
- Ohio Depicted as making progress against opioid addiction and deaths through a notable state initiative.
- Vivek Ramaswamy Described as supportive of continuing the recovery initiative and prioritizing behavioral health.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as Acton's party affiliation in a balanced policy discussion without praise or blame.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned as Ramaswamy's party affiliation in a balanced policy discussion without praise or blame.
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