Ohio’s 12th District House Race 2026
Ohio’s 12th Congressional District, covering suburban and rural areas around Columbus and parts of central Ohio, will hold its House election in November 2026. The seat has leaned Republican in recent cycles, but redistricting and shifting suburban voting patterns keep it on watch lists. Candidates from both major parties are expected to compete, with the primary season shaping the eventual matchup.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House often hinges on a small number of competitive districts, and OH-12 has a history of closer-than-expected margins. The outcome will factor into the broader national balance of power and influence which party sets the legislative agenda in 2027. Local economic conditions and candidate quality will shape turnout.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The market reduces a multi-candidate contest to a binary question: which party ultimately holds the seat. It isolates partisan control as the key variable, separating that from vote-share margins or turnout mechanics. Traders are effectively weighing district-level partisan lean against national political momentum heading into the midterms.
Related terms
Total Volume
$150.3k
Kalshi $11k · Polymarket $139.3k
Leading Market
Troy Balderson
Kalshi 96% · Polymarket 97%
Troy Balderson Volume
$32.6k
Kalshi $4.7k · Polymarket $27.9k
Troy Balderson 24h Change
-1.00%
Kalshi -0.60% · Polymarket -1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy BaldersonRepublican Party | 95.8¢ | 7.0% |
|
97.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Jerry-Christian TchuisséDemocratic Party | 5.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
4.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
Beatty faces Jan. 6 clemency recipient in Ohio’s 3rd District race
PN Team • 1 month ago
Incumbent Democrat Joyce Beatty is defending her seat in Ohio's 3rd Congressional District, which covers most of Columbus, against Republican challenger Cleophus Dulaney in the November 3 election. Beatty, 76, has held the seat since 2012, serves on the House Financial Services Committee, and is campaigning on affordable housing, civil rights, education and the economy.
Dulaney, 66, a local business owner who previously lost a 2020 primary bid for the seat, was arrested by the FBI in 2024 in connection with the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot, facing charges including assaulting a police officer. He received clemency from President Trump on his first day in office as part of a mass pardon covering roughly 1,600 people tied to the attack. Dulaney describes his participation as peaceful protest and says he is running on cost-of-living, immigration and housing issues, though he lacks the Franklin County GOP's endorsement. Notably, records show Dulaney actually resides just outside the district he seeks to represent, while Beatty lives within its boundaries.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's mass pardon of January 6 defendants, including Dulaney, is portrayed as controversial and reputationally damaging.
- Joyce Beatty Beatty is portrayed as an experienced, credentialed incumbent focused on substantive policy issues.
- Republican Party (United States) Dulaney, the Republican challenger, is portrayed negatively due to his Capitol riot involvement and lack of local party endorsement.
- United States House Committee on Financial Services Beatty's service on this committee is noted as a positive credential.
- Columbus, Ohio Columbus is mentioned neutrally as the district's main city.
- Democratic Party (United States) Beatty is identified as a Democrat, a neutral factual label.
- United States House of Representatives The House is mentioned as the body whose seat is being contested, a neutral factual reference.
- Ohio Ohio is mentioned factually as the state of the district.
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Elections
Sherrod Brown Leads Jon Husted in New Polls Amid Fallout From Viral Attack Ad
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
Democrat Sherrod Brown released a viral 30-second ad attacking Republican Sen. Jon Husted over remarks Husted made in March about people living in poverty. The ad features Ohio residents reacting with shock and profanity as they watch a clip of Husted saying poor people are "not very experienced at navigating the real world" and describing a young woman on food stamps who he said didn't "understand how money works at a grocery store," adding that "you literally have to teach people how to budget." It drew over 350,000 views within hours, praised by Brown supporters as exposing Husted as out of touch while drawing backlash from the right.
The ad comes as two new polls, from Suffolk University/USA Today and Marist, show Brown leading Husted by three and eight points respectively ahead of Ohio's Nov. 3 special Senate election to finish JD Vance's term. Both surveys found broad dissatisfaction with President Trump's job performance and economic concerns weighing on voters, continuing a months-long trend of polling favoring Brown, a former longtime senator ousted in 2024.
Sentiment
- Sherrod Brown Brown is shown leading in polls and effectively using a viral ad to attack his opponent.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican candidate's comments and polling deficit reflect unfavorably on the party in this race.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrat Brown's polling lead and viral ad reflect positively on the party's candidate.
- Donald Trump Trump is mentioned in connection with voter dissatisfaction over his job performance.
- Ohio Ohio is mentioned as the setting for the special Senate election.
- United States Senate The U.S. Senate is mentioned factually as the office being contested.
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Elections
Ohio Senate race polling shows wide gap between individual surveys and averages
PN Team • 2 months ago
A Fox News poll conducted Aug. 6-10 shows former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) leading Sen. Jon Husted (R) 53% to 45% in Ohio's U.S. Senate race, matching the same eight-point margin Fox found in late May/early June. However, other surveys and polling averages show a far tighter contest: RealClearPolling's aggregate has Brown at 47.8% and Husted at 47.2%, an AARP poll in June had Brown up just three points, and a New York Times/Siena poll had Husted ahead by three.
Analysts note methodological differences—such as registered versus likely voters—help explain the variation, and caution against treating any single poll as predictive. The Fox survey found inflation and financial strain as top voter concerns, with Brown leading heavily among those who feel they're falling behind financially. Concerns that Husted is too closely aligned with President Trump have risen since June. The same poll showed Republican Vivek Ramaswamy edging Democrat Amy Acton in the governor's race. Husted, appointed after J.D. Vance became vice president, faces Brown on Nov. 3 to serve the remainder of Vance's term.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Sherrod Brown Depicted as leading in most polls, particularly among financially struggling voters, a favorable portrayal.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as the party affiliation of Sherrod Brown without additional characterization.
- Ohio Mentioned as the location of the Senate race, a neutral factual reference.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned as the party affiliation of Husted and Ramaswamy without further evaluation.
- United States Senate Mentioned as the body whose seat is being contested, a factual reference.
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Elections
New York Times/Siena poll shows Ohio Senate, governor races tied within margin of error
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
A New York Times/Siena College poll shows Democrats with narrow leads in Ohio's marquee 2025 races, though both contests remain within the margin of error. Democrat Sherrod Brown led Republican Jon Husted 49%-46% in the Senate race, while Democrat Amy Acton led Republican Vivek Ramaswamy 49%-45% for governor. The poll surveyed 616 voters from Sept. 22 to Oct. 1, with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.5 percentage points.
Both races are rated toss-ups by the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Brown and Acton held stronger net favorability than their opponents, drawing more support from younger and non-white voters, while Husted and Ramaswamy performed better among men and white voters. Voters cited the economy as their top concern, followed by inflation and immigration, and a plurality said Ohio is headed in the wrong direction. The same pollster showed Brown and Kamala Harris ahead in Ohio in October 2024, before Republicans won both races that November, underscoring the uncertainty around the latest numbers. Election Day is Nov. 3, with early voting underway.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Amy Acton Amy Acton is shown leading her gubernatorial race with stronger favorability than her opponent.
- Sherrod Brown Sherrod Brown is shown leading his Senate race with stronger net favorability than Husted.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic candidates are shown leading in both races, a modestly favorable portrayal.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican candidates trail narrowly in both polls, a mildly unfavorable but close result.
- Ohio Ohio is the location of the races discussed factually without reputational implication.
- United States Senate The U.S. Senate race in Ohio is discussed factually as a toss-up contest.
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Elections
Brown and Acton lead Republican rivals in new Ohio polls
PN Team • 1 week ago
Democrats Sherrod Brown and Amy Acton hold leads over their Republican opponents in two new Ohio surveys ahead of the Nov. 3 election. A Fox News poll shows Brown ahead of Sen. Jon Husted 52%-47% among likely voters, while Cook Political Report has Brown up 49%-43%. In the governor's race, Fox finds Acton leading Vivek Ramaswamy 50%-48%, with Cook showing a wider 49%-44% margin. Economic concerns and Trump's job approval, underwater in Fox's poll, favor Democrats, while Husted and Ramaswamy draw strength from men and voters citing stable finances. The Senate race has become the cycle's most expensive, with over $422 million in ad spending tracked.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Amy Acton Acton is shown leading her gubernatorial race in both polls, a favorable portrayal.
- Sherrod Brown Brown is shown leading his Senate race in both polls, a favorable portrayal.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are shown leading in both key Ohio races, a favorable polling signal.
- Donald Trump Trump's underwater approval rating is cited as a factor hurting Republicans.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican candidates are shown trailing in both polls, a mildly unfavorable signal.
- Vivek Ramaswamy Ramaswamy is shown trailing Acton in both gubernatorial polls.
- United States Senate The Senate race is mentioned factually as the context for Brown's lead and high ad spending.
- Ohio Ohio is the neutral setting for the election polls described.
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Elections
Ohio governor candidates diverge sharply on abortion policy ahead of 2026 race
PN Team • 1 month ago
Even with abortion rights enshrined in Ohio's Constitution since a 2023 ballot measure, the state's next governor will hold significant sway over how those protections are implemented, from clinic regulation to reproductive-health funding. Courts are still expected to rule in coming years on remaining restrictions, including a 24-hour waiting period and a telehealth medication-abortion ban, giving the governor leverage to veto or champion new legislation from the Republican-controlled General Assembly.
Democratic nominee Amy Acton says she would protect and expand abortion access but has offered few specifics, pointing instead to Ohioans' 2023 vote. As state health director under Gov. Mike DeWine, she both defended abortion restrictions in court and allowed a Dayton clinic to resume procedures. Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, who has called abortion "murder" and backed six-week bans as a 2024 presidential candidate, has declined to detail his gubernatorial plans, though an anti-abortion group says he privately expressed strong support. Libertarian Don Kissick opposes both bans and government efforts to expand access, calling for government to stay out of the issue entirely.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Vivek Ramaswamy Portrayed as calling abortion "murder," supporting bans, and being evasive about his actual plans, which casts him unfavorably.
- Republican Party (United States) Named as controlling the General Assembly and associated with restrictive abortion legislation, a mildly negative framing.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as Amy Acton's party affiliation without additional characterization.
- Ohio Central setting of the story, mentioned factually regarding its constitution and political landscape.
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Elections
Trump rallies in Youngstown as new poll shows Ohio Senate, governor races within margin of error
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
President Donald Trump held a rally in Youngstown, Ohio, urging supporters to back Republican U.S. Senate candidate Jon Husted against Democrat Sherrod Brown and gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy against Democrat Amy Acton ahead of the November midterms. Speaking at the Covelli Centre, Trump framed the races as a choice to "Put Ohio First" and asked attendees to treat the contests as if he were personally on the ballot. He also announced federal assistance for SOBE Thermal Energy Systems and disclosed that Cleveland will host a new 46,000-square-foot U.S. Navy submarine component repair facility, crediting Husted with securing the project. Jon Gruden introduced Trump, with boxer Jake Paul also appearing.
A new co/efficient poll of 925 likely Ohio voters, taken Oct. 5-6, found both races within the margin of error: Ramaswamy led Acton 45%-43% in the governor's race, while Husted led Brown 44%-43% in the Senate contest, a special election to fill the seat J.D. Vance vacated. Analysts continue to rate both races as toss-ups.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Depicted as a rallying leader driving campaign momentum and announcing federal investment, a favorable portrayal.
- Vivek Ramaswamy Shown leading in the governor's race poll and backed by Trump at a rally, a favorable portrayal.
- Cleveland Named as the site of a new Navy facility, a favorable economic development mention.
- United States Navy Noted as benefiting from a new facility in Cleveland, a favorable mention.
- Amy Acton Portrayed as trailing in the poll against Ramaswamy, a mild negative framing.
- Ohio Central to the competitive election narrative, a neutral factual mention.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned as the party of Husted and Ramaswamy in a neutral electoral context.
- Sherrod Brown Shown trailing slightly in the Senate race poll, a mildly unfavorable framing.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as the party of Brown and Acton in a neutral electoral context.
- United States Senate Referenced as the seat being contested, a neutral factual mention.
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Elections
Ohio lawmakers to reconvene on Ramaswamy’s gas-tax suspension plan
PN Team • 1 month ago
Ohio legislative leaders are scrambling to reconvene lawmakers next week to vote on a proposal from Republican gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy to suspend the state's gas and diesel taxes for 90 days amid surging fuel prices. House Speaker Matt Huffman and Senate President Rob McColley, Ramaswamy's running mate, said their chambers plan to return around Sept. 30, though the effort to secure enough votes and lawmaker attendance was still in flux. The plan, unveiled Monday, would suspend Ohio's 38.5-cents-per-gallon gas tax and 47-cents-per-gallon diesel tax, at a cost of roughly $640 million covered by ODOT reserves, the general fund, and potentially the state's rainy-day fund.
Passing it with immediate effect requires a two-thirds "emergency clause" vote, meaning some Democratic support is needed in the House. Gov. Mike DeWine, who previously blocked a similar moratorium, has not committed to signing it. Critics have called the timing—weeks before the Nov. 3 election, with Ramaswamy facing a competitive race against Amy Acton—politically motivated.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Vivek Ramaswamy Ramaswamy's tax plan is portrayed as a politically motivated election-season maneuver amid a competitive race.
- Mike DeWine DeWine is portrayed as noncommittal and previously obstructive to a similar plan, a mildly unfavorable framing.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic support is needed for the emergency clause, mentioned neutrally as a procedural factor.
- Ohio Ohio is the setting for the tax policy debate, a neutral contextual mention.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican leaders are pushing the plan, framed partly as politically motivated ahead of an election.
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Elections
Ohio lawmakers revise Ramaswamy gas-tax holiday funding plan
PN Team • 1 month ago
Ohio Republican legislative leaders introduced Senate Bill 475 on Monday, revising GOP gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy's proposal to suspend the state's gas tax for 90 days. The bill would use roughly $725 million from the state's projected general fund surplus to replace lost gas-tax revenue, rather than tapping the Ohio Department of Transportation's cash reserves or the state's rainy-day fund as Ramaswamy originally proposed. Gov. Mike DeWine had criticized those funding sources as risky, and lawmakers appear to have shifted course in response, though leaders declined to credit his objections directly. The bill also sets aside $1 million to reimburse gas stations for updating receipt systems.
Republican leaders, including Senate President and Ramaswamy running mate Rob McColley and House Speaker Matt Huffman, aim to pass the bill Wednesday as an emergency measure, requiring supermajority support including at least one House Democrat. The move comes as Ramaswamy faces Democrat Amy Acton, who floated a similar proposal, in a closely watched governor's race just before Nov. 3 early voting begins. DeWine has signaled openness to a funding approach he can support.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Mike DeWine DeWine's earlier criticism is validated as lawmakers shifted funding sources in response, casting him as influential and prudent.
- Vivek Ramaswamy Ramaswamy's original funding plan was criticized and effectively overridden, reflecting mild reputational cost.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican leaders are shown proactively revising and advancing the bill toward passage.
- Amy Acton Acton is mentioned as a rival candidate with a similar proposal, a neutral competitive mention.
- Democratic Party (United States) A Democrat's vote is needed and Acton floated a similar plan, a neutral factual mention.
- Ohio Ohio is the factual setting of the legislative action without added reputational valence.
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Elections
Ohio Lawmaker Proposes Ban on Election Betting
PN Team • 3 days ago
Ohio state Sen. Bill DeMora (D-Columbus) has introduced Senate Bill 479 to prohibit gambling on elections, a measure that would extend to prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket. The bill follows a 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruling that Ohio can regulate prediction markets under state gambling law, a decision Kalshi is appealing. DeMora cited election-security concerns, noting large sums already wagered on Ohio's governor and Senate races, and argued unregulated prediction markets avoid taxes and licensing fees paid by sports betting operators. The bill awaits committee assignment and is unlikely to advance before the legislature returns from break in November.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Ohio Depicted as taking proactive regulatory action on election betting.
- Columbus, Ohio Mentioned only as the senator's district affiliation.
- United States Senate Referenced factually as the race with wagering activity, no portrayal implied.
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