Ohio’s 4th District House Race 2026
Ohio’s 4th Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat in north-central Ohio covering Lima, Mansfield, and surrounding rural counties, holds its general election on November 3, 2026. The district has long been held by the GOP, making the primary contests often more consequential than the general. Voters will choose a representative to serve a two-year term in the U.S. House.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the House majority hinges on the cumulative outcome of races like this one across the country. While OH-04 is not considered competitive in most cycles, shifts in rural and small-town voting patterns can signal broader trends in midterm sentiment. The result will also shape representation for a district with distinct manufacturing and agricultural interests.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The contract reduces a multi-candidate, multi-stage election into a binary question: which party’s nominee wins in November. For a district with a strong partisan lean, the market mostly tests whether an upset or unusually close finish is plausible rather than genuine suspense over the winner. Traders are effectively weighing the odds of a historically safe seat behaving true to form against any signs of a shifting electorate.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
Ohio -
Jim Jordan -
Mansfield, Ohio -
Lima, Ohio -
Ohio's 4th congressional district
Total Volume
$55.9k
Kalshi $4k · Polymarket $51.9k
Leading Market
Jim Jordan
Kalshi 95% · Polymarket 97%
Jim Jordan Volume
$37.2k
Kalshi $726.77 · Polymarket $36.4k
Jim Jordan 24h Change
-1.00%
Kalshi 0.00% · Polymarket -1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim JordanRepublican Party | 97.2¢ | 7.0% | , trade Jim Jordan on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 97.0¢ | 5% | , trade Jim Jordan on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Joshua D. KolasinskiDemocratic Party | — | — | — | 4.0¢ | 5% | , trade Joshua D. Kolasinski on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Joshua KolasinskiDemocratic Party | 3.9¢ | 7.0% | , trade Joshua Kolasinski on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jim JordanRepublican Party | $37,162.10 | ||
| Joshua D. KolasinskiDemocratic Party | $15,509.84 | No market | |
| Joshua KolasinskiDemocratic Party | $3,226.32 | No market |