Ohio’s 15th District House Race: Who Will Win in 2026
Ohio’s 15th Congressional District is set for another House election in 2026, covering a swath of central Ohio including parts of Columbus’s suburbs and surrounding rural counties. The seat has leaned Republican in recent cycles, but shifting suburban demographics have occasionally tightened the margin. Candidates from both major parties are expected to compete, with primaries shaping the field before the general election.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House often comes down to a handful of competitive districts, and Ohio’s 15th has periodically drawn national attention despite its Republican lean. A swing here could signal broader shifts in suburban and exurban voting patterns ahead of the midterms. The outcome will help shape the balance of power in Congress for the next two years.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question traders face is binary: will the seat stay Republican or flip to Democratic control, with additional contracts isolating individual candidates. This structure lets participants separate party-level outcomes from the fortunes of specific contenders as primaries resolve the field. It turns a local race into a readable signal about national midterm momentum.
Related terms
Total Volume
$223.3k
Kalshi $121.2k · Polymarket $102.1k
Leading Market
Mike Carey
Kalshi 65% · Polymarket 61%
Mike Carey Volume
$159.8k
Kalshi $60.4k · Polymarket $99.4k
Mike Carey 24h Change
-1.00%
Kalshi 0.00% · Polymarket -1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike CareyRepublican Party | 63.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
61.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Don LeonardDemocratic Party | 37.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
38.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
Ohio governor candidates clash over gas tax as Acton holds lead over Ramaswamy in prediction markets
PN Team • 1 month ago
Ohio's governor race intensified this week as Republican nominee Vivek Ramaswamy and Democratic rival Amy Acton both proposed suspending the state's gas tax amid a spike in fuel prices, with statewide averages topping $4.52 a gallon and diesel hitting a record $6.77. Ramaswamy, joined by GOP legislative leaders Rob McColley and Matt Huffman, unveiled a plan for a 90-day tax suspension that lawmakers could act on before Election Day, funded initially through ODOT reserves and the state's rainy-day fund. Acton called for an "emergency gas tax holiday" but offered fewer details on duration or funding. It remains unclear whether the GOP-controlled legislature will reconvene early or whether Gov. Mike DeWine, who has raised the gas tax before, would sign such a measure.
Separately, prediction markets continue to show Acton leading Ramaswamy by a wider margin than public polling suggests. Ohio lawmakers are also pursuing a bid to bring the U.S. Space Academy to Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, with a decision due to NASA by October 26 and final approval resting with President Trump.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Vivek Ramaswamy Ramaswamy is shown offering a detailed, actionable tax relief plan, portraying him as proactive and prepared, though he trails in prediction markets.
- Mike DeWine DeWine is noted for having raised the gas tax before and his uncertain stance, casting mild doubt on his position.
- Democratic Party (United States) Acton is identified as the Democratic nominee, a neutral factual mention.
- Donald Trump Trump is mentioned only as holding final approval authority over the Space Academy decision, a neutral factual reference.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican leaders are shown proactively proposing a tax relief plan, a mildly favorable but largely factual mention.
- Ohio Ohio is the setting for the gubernatorial race and gas tax debate, a neutral contextual mention.
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Elections
Beatty faces Jan. 6 clemency recipient in Ohio’s 3rd District race
PN Team • 1 month ago
Incumbent Democrat Joyce Beatty is defending her seat in Ohio's 3rd Congressional District, which covers most of Columbus, against Republican challenger Cleophus Dulaney in the November 3 election. Beatty, 76, has held the seat since 2012, serves on the House Financial Services Committee, and is campaigning on affordable housing, civil rights, education and the economy.
Dulaney, 66, a local business owner who previously lost a 2020 primary bid for the seat, was arrested by the FBI in 2024 in connection with the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot, facing charges including assaulting a police officer. He received clemency from President Trump on his first day in office as part of a mass pardon covering roughly 1,600 people tied to the attack. Dulaney describes his participation as peaceful protest and says he is running on cost-of-living, immigration and housing issues, though he lacks the Franklin County GOP's endorsement. Notably, records show Dulaney actually resides just outside the district he seeks to represent, while Beatty lives within its boundaries.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's mass pardon of January 6 defendants, including Dulaney, is portrayed as controversial and reputationally damaging.
- Joyce Beatty Beatty is portrayed as an experienced, credentialed incumbent focused on substantive policy issues.
- Republican Party (United States) Dulaney, the Republican challenger, is portrayed negatively due to his Capitol riot involvement and lack of local party endorsement.
- United States House Committee on Financial Services Beatty's service on this committee is noted as a positive credential.
- Columbus, Ohio Columbus is mentioned neutrally as the district's main city.
- Democratic Party (United States) Beatty is identified as a Democrat, a neutral factual label.
- United States House of Representatives The House is mentioned as the body whose seat is being contested, a neutral factual reference.
- Ohio Ohio is mentioned factually as the state of the district.
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Elections
Ohio gas tax holiday begins amid political crosscurrents in Columbus
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
Ohio's 90-day gas-tax holiday takes effect Sunday after Gov. Mike DeWine signed the measure into law, though officials caution drivers may not see the full savings reflected at the pump, and lawmakers may face pressure over letting prices rise again when the holiday ends in early January. Separately, U.S. Rep. Max Miller is resisting calls from Ohio's two Republican senators to resign amid a domestic abuse investigation by the House Ethics Committee, a notable reversal from his own past calls for colleagues accused of misconduct to step down.
Elsewhere, federal regulators delayed a PJM power auction over concerns about data centers' share of rising electricity costs, and Ohio transportation officials unveiled a preferred, $1 billion-plus route for a new U.S. 23-I-71 connector north of Columbus meant to ease rush-hour congestion. In the state's closely watched Senate race, crypto-industry super PACs, including one backed by the Winklevoss twins, are spending heavily to oppose Democrat Sherrod Brown and support Republican Sen. Jon Husted.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Max Miller (politician) Miller faces a domestic abuse investigation and is seen as hypocritical for resisting resignation after previously demanding it of others.
- Mike DeWine DeWine is portrayed positively for signing a tax relief measure into law.
- Sherrod Brown Brown is targeted by well-funded opposition PACs, framing him as under political attack.
- Ohio Ohio is the setting for tax relief and infrastructure improvements, reflecting modestly positive state governance.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican senators pressuring a fellow Republican to resign reflects internal party tension without major reputational harm or gain.
- United States House of Representatives Mentioned only as the body investigating Miller via its Ethics Committee, a neutral institutional reference.
- Columbus, Ohio Columbus is mentioned as the location of political and infrastructure developments without strong positive or negative framing.
- United States Senate Referenced as the chamber context for the Ohio Senate race without specific reputational charge.
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Elections
Ohio governor candidates split sharply on gun policy
PN Team • 2 months ago
Ohio's 2026 governor's race has surfaced starkly different positions on gun policy among the three candidates. Democratic nominee Amy Acton says she would pursue expanded background checks and a "red-flag" law allowing authorities to seize firearms from people deemed dangerous, echoing a scaled-back version of outgoing Gov. Mike DeWine's "Strong Ohio" plan proposed after the 2019 Dayton mass shooting. Republican nominee Vivek Ramaswamy has pledged to be the most pro-gun-rights governor in state history and has explicitly ruled out a red-flag law, though he has offered few other specifics and did not respond to questions on the matter. Libertarian candidate Don Kissick opposes new restrictions but, through running mate James Mills, supports reintroducing firearm-safety education in schools along with expanded mental-health services.
The debate comes as Ohio's GOP-controlled legislature has loosened gun laws in recent years, including eliminating concealed-carry permit requirements, while gun homicides statewide rose 37% between 2014 and 2024, though below a 2021 pandemic-era peak.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Dayton, Ohio Dayton is mentioned only in connection with the 2019 mass shooting, a negative but tangential reference.
- Mike DeWine DeWine's prior 'Strong Ohio' plan is referenced as a reasonable policy precedent following a mass shooting.
- Vivek Ramaswamy Ramaswamy is portrayed as vague and unresponsive on specifics despite a strong pro-gun stance, a mildly unfavorable characterization.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic nominee's gun-safety proposal is described neutrally as part of the policy debate.
- Republican Party (United States) The GOP is mentioned factually as having loosened gun laws, a neutral-to-slightly-controversial policy note.
- Ohio Ohio is the factual setting for the gubernatorial race and policy debate without inherent reputational spin.
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Elections
Sherrod Brown Leads Jon Husted in New Polls Amid Fallout From Viral Attack Ad
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
Democrat Sherrod Brown released a viral 30-second ad attacking Republican Sen. Jon Husted over remarks Husted made in March about people living in poverty. The ad features Ohio residents reacting with shock and profanity as they watch a clip of Husted saying poor people are "not very experienced at navigating the real world" and describing a young woman on food stamps who he said didn't "understand how money works at a grocery store," adding that "you literally have to teach people how to budget." It drew over 350,000 views within hours, praised by Brown supporters as exposing Husted as out of touch while drawing backlash from the right.
The ad comes as two new polls, from Suffolk University/USA Today and Marist, show Brown leading Husted by three and eight points respectively ahead of Ohio's Nov. 3 special Senate election to finish JD Vance's term. Both surveys found broad dissatisfaction with President Trump's job performance and economic concerns weighing on voters, continuing a months-long trend of polling favoring Brown, a former longtime senator ousted in 2024.
Sentiment
- Sherrod Brown Brown is shown leading in polls and effectively using a viral ad to attack his opponent.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican candidate's comments and polling deficit reflect unfavorably on the party in this race.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrat Brown's polling lead and viral ad reflect positively on the party's candidate.
- Donald Trump Trump is mentioned in connection with voter dissatisfaction over his job performance.
- Ohio Ohio is mentioned as the setting for the special Senate election.
- United States Senate The U.S. Senate is mentioned factually as the office being contested.
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Elections
Ohio lawmakers to reconvene on Ramaswamy’s gas-tax suspension plan
PN Team • 1 month ago
Ohio legislative leaders are scrambling to reconvene lawmakers next week to vote on a proposal from Republican gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy to suspend the state's gas and diesel taxes for 90 days amid surging fuel prices. House Speaker Matt Huffman and Senate President Rob McColley, Ramaswamy's running mate, said their chambers plan to return around Sept. 30, though the effort to secure enough votes and lawmaker attendance was still in flux. The plan, unveiled Monday, would suspend Ohio's 38.5-cents-per-gallon gas tax and 47-cents-per-gallon diesel tax, at a cost of roughly $640 million covered by ODOT reserves, the general fund, and potentially the state's rainy-day fund.
Passing it with immediate effect requires a two-thirds "emergency clause" vote, meaning some Democratic support is needed in the House. Gov. Mike DeWine, who previously blocked a similar moratorium, has not committed to signing it. Critics have called the timing—weeks before the Nov. 3 election, with Ramaswamy facing a competitive race against Amy Acton—politically motivated.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Vivek Ramaswamy Ramaswamy's tax plan is portrayed as a politically motivated election-season maneuver amid a competitive race.
- Mike DeWine DeWine is portrayed as noncommittal and previously obstructive to a similar plan, a mildly unfavorable framing.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic support is needed for the emergency clause, mentioned neutrally as a procedural factor.
- Ohio Ohio is the setting for the tax policy debate, a neutral contextual mention.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican leaders are pushing the plan, framed partly as politically motivated ahead of an election.
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Elections
Ohio Governor’s Race Spotlights Future of Addiction Recovery Policy
PN Team • 4 days ago
Ohio has made gains against opioid addiction and overdose deaths under Gov. Mike DeWine, who championed the RecoveryOhio initiative. With his term ending and a new governor to be elected soon, advocates and lawmakers are watching whether Democrat Amy Acton or Republican Vivek Ramaswamy will keep up the state's focus on treatment and prevention. Acton, who helped lead RecoveryOhio as state health director, pledges to expand treatment access and hold corporations accountable; Ramaswamy's campaign says he supports continuing the initiative and prioritizes behavioral health. Legislators cite concerns including workforce impacts from failed drug tests, looming Medicaid funding cuts, and debate over expanding treatments like cannabis and psilocybin for addiction-linked depression.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Mike DeWine Credited with championing a successful addiction recovery initiative during his term.
- Amy Acton Portrayed as a past leader of a successful initiative who now pledges expanded treatment and corporate accountability.
- Ohio Depicted as making progress against opioid addiction and deaths through a notable state initiative.
- Vivek Ramaswamy Described as supportive of continuing the recovery initiative and prioritizing behavioral health.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as Acton's party affiliation in a balanced policy discussion without praise or blame.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned as Ramaswamy's party affiliation in a balanced policy discussion without praise or blame.
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Elections
Ohio lawmakers revise Ramaswamy gas-tax holiday funding plan
PN Team • 1 month ago
Ohio Republican legislative leaders introduced Senate Bill 475 on Monday, revising GOP gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy's proposal to suspend the state's gas tax for 90 days. The bill would use roughly $725 million from the state's projected general fund surplus to replace lost gas-tax revenue, rather than tapping the Ohio Department of Transportation's cash reserves or the state's rainy-day fund as Ramaswamy originally proposed. Gov. Mike DeWine had criticized those funding sources as risky, and lawmakers appear to have shifted course in response, though leaders declined to credit his objections directly. The bill also sets aside $1 million to reimburse gas stations for updating receipt systems.
Republican leaders, including Senate President and Ramaswamy running mate Rob McColley and House Speaker Matt Huffman, aim to pass the bill Wednesday as an emergency measure, requiring supermajority support including at least one House Democrat. The move comes as Ramaswamy faces Democrat Amy Acton, who floated a similar proposal, in a closely watched governor's race just before Nov. 3 early voting begins. DeWine has signaled openness to a funding approach he can support.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Mike DeWine DeWine's earlier criticism is validated as lawmakers shifted funding sources in response, casting him as influential and prudent.
- Vivek Ramaswamy Ramaswamy's original funding plan was criticized and effectively overridden, reflecting mild reputational cost.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican leaders are shown proactively revising and advancing the bill toward passage.
- Amy Acton Acton is mentioned as a rival candidate with a similar proposal, a neutral competitive mention.
- Democratic Party (United States) A Democrat's vote is needed and Acton floated a similar plan, a neutral factual mention.
- Ohio Ohio is the factual setting of the legislative action without added reputational valence.
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Elections
Ohio governor candidates split on future of early voting and ballot drop boxes
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
Ohio's 2026 governor's race will determine who signs off on any further changes to the state's voting rules, after years of tightening under outgoing Gov. Mike DeWine, including a shrinking early-voting window, voter ID requirements, a one-drop-box-per-county limit, and proof-of-citizenship rules at BMV offices.
Democrat Amy Acton says she would largely preserve existing rules, emphasizing a balance between security and access, and has backed Issue 3, the GOP-authored measure enshrining voter ID in the state constitution. Libertarian Don Kissick wants automatic voter registration at age 18 and would consider trimming early-voting and drop-box hours, though he opposes Issue 3. Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, who has not answered questions on the topic from local reporters, previously called as a presidential candidate for ending most early voting and requiring paper ballots, but hasn't repeated those positions on the campaign trail. Separately, the race for secretary of state pits a Republican nominee seeking to eliminate drop boxes against a Democrat who wants them at every polling place. Early voting for the 2026 election begins October 6.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Mike DeWine Associated with years of tightening voting rules, framed as restrictive policies under his tenure.
- Amy Acton Portrayed as a balanced, pragmatic candidate who supports both security and access to voting.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned only as the political party affiliation of candidates Acton and the secretary of state nominee, without evaluative content.
- Ohio Central subject of the article as the state whose voting laws and election are being discussed, purely factual.
- Republican Party (United States) Referenced as the party behind Issue 3 and the secretary of state nominee's affiliation, presented neutrally.
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Elections
Ohio attorney general candidates Faber and Kulewicz to hold first statewide debate
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Republican Keith Faber and Democrat John Kulewicz, the two nominees for Ohio attorney general, have agreed to debate on Oct. 19 at Youngstown State University, becoming the first candidates in any of Ohio's nine statewide races to commit to facing off before the Nov. 3 election. The event, moderated by Tony Paglia of the Youngstown Press Club, follows a joint statement from both campaigns pledging a "free, fair, and informative" discussion for voters.
Faber, the current state auditor, has emphasized support for law enforcement, consumer protection, combating trafficking, and resisting federal overreach. Kulewicz has focused on consumer protection and price-fixing enforcement, arguing the office should prioritize state issues over national political lawsuits. Both candidates have outlined anti-corruption plans, and differ on continuing the prosecution of former FirstEnergy executives and on regulating license-plate camera technology. No debates have yet been scheduled in Ohio's higher-profile Senate or governor's races, where candidates have so far resisted or failed to arrange face-offs.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Keith Faber Faber is portrayed as a proactive candidate agreeing to debate and outlining substantive policy positions.
- Law enforcement Faber's support for law enforcement is noted as a policy stance, casting it favorably but briefly.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as Kulewicz's party affiliation in a neutral factual context.
- Ohio Ohio is the setting for the statewide election and debate, mentioned factually.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned as Faber's party affiliation in a neutral factual context.
- State governments of the United States Referenced via Ohio's statewide races context without specific judgment.
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