Montana Senate Race: Margin of Victory

Alaska's U.S. House primary has narrowed to a general-election contest between Republican incumbent Nick Begich, independent Bill Hill, an incarcerated New York Democrat, and a Fairbanks Libertarian, after several Democratic contenders dropped out. Certified results showed Begich winning the primary with 44.6% to Hill's 32.5%, a 12-point gap. Anchorage Democrat Matt Schultz, the party's former front-runner, suspended his campaign in July, citing weak institutional support, and endorsed Hill; other Democratic candidates also withdrew to consolidate anti-Begich votes.

Hill, a Dena'ina Athabascan educator and fisherman, is campaigning on healthcare costs and inflation while also backing oil and gas development alongside renewables. Begich, part of a prominent Alaska political family who unseated Mary Peltola in 2024, is running on legislative wins including energy development measures and the Trump-backed tax and spending law. Begich holds a large fundraising edge. Political analysts are split: some see a plausible path for Hill given Alaska's heavy independent registration and a national climate favoring Democrats and independents, while others call Begich's reelection all but certain under Alaska's ranked-choice general election system.

President Trump traveled to Dalton, Georgia, to rally for Senate candidate Mike Collins and gubernatorial nominee Rick Jackson ahead of a competitive midterm election. Unlike recent stops in safely Republican states, Georgia remains a genuine battleground, with Collins facing Sen. Jon Ossoff and Jackson facing former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. Both Democrats seized on the visit, arguing it ties the GOP ticket to Trump's economic record and 2020 election denialism; Collins has echoed Trump's fraud claims without directly affirming Biden's legitimate win. Gov. Brian Kemp, who delayed endorsing Collins, skipped the rally. The race highlights GOP divisions and narrowing margins even in deep-red Georgia districts.

A closely watched race in Montana's 1st congressional district has become a test of whether economic populism or culture-war messaging resonates more with voters. Democrat Sam Forstag, a wildland firefighter and former ACLU lobbyist, has focused his campaign on housing affordability and cost-of-living frustrations, while Republican Aaron Flint, a former conservative radio host, has leaned into attacks portraying Forstag as a "radical" on gender and sexual orientation issues. President Trump campaigned in the state for Flint this week, underscoring the race's national profile.

Polling shows the contest within a few points either way, and the Cook Political Report recently shifted its rating from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican." A heated debate this week saw Flint brand Forstag "Phony Forstag" over his past LGBTQ advocacy work, while Forstag kept his focus on housing costs, private equity's role in the rental market, and wage stagnation. Montana Democrats argue the state's independent streak favors pocketbook messaging over national identity politics, making the race a bellwether for broader midterm strategy debates.

Montana Republican congressional candidate Aaron Flint, a retired lieutenant colonel and fifth-generation Montanan, has sharpened his attacks on Democratic opponent Sam Forstag ahead of the race for the state's U.S. House seat. Speaking on Breitbart News Saturday, Flint called Forstag "an absolute phony," citing his past work as a lobbyist for the ACLU, Planned Parenthood, and the cities of Missoula and Bozeman, where he supported higher property taxes and a state sales tax. Flint also criticized Forstag's past LGBTQ advocacy work and ties to progressive figures. Flint framed the contest as part of a broader Democratic push, backed by national money, to flip traditionally conservative districts, predicting Republicans will retain House control despite the effort.

Montana has enacted the nation's most expansive "right-to-try" law, letting any resident—not just terminally ill patients—access experimental drugs that have only completed Phase I trials showing basic safety, without proven effectiveness. This breaks sharply from federal right-to-try rules, including those signed during Trump's first term, which require patients to have exhausted approved treatments.

Biotech startups see Montana as a workaround to the FDA's costly approval process. Infinita, a company tied to a deregulated zone in Honduras and led by CEO Niklas Anzinger, runs the only review board approving treatments so far, charging companies a application fee; it approved its first treatment last month. Critics, including patient advocates, warn of conflicts of interest and unproven claims reaching vulnerable patients. The program's future depends on whether the FDA intervenes—an open question, especially with HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has touted his own use of unapproved treatments, expressing support for expanded access. FDA officials met with industry and patient groups in June but gave no commitment on enforcement.

California's Senate Bill 1406, which took effect at the end of September 2026, aims to close the so-called Montana loophole, in which residents register high-end vehicles—exotic cars, RVs, and other pricey assets—to out-of-state shell LLCs to dodge California's sales tax and registration fees. Under the new law, if any owner or manager of such an LLC is a California resident, assets located in the state become subject to California taxes, and LLC partners can be held liable for unpaid amounts, with nonpayment potentially treated as a crime. Enforcement details remain unclear since vehicles stay registered elsewhere. Some owners used these LLCs to dodge emissions rules too, an issue only partly addressed by other upcoming legislation.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom said he would not seek the presidency in 2028 if former Vice President Kamala Harris decides to run again. Speaking with CNN's Jake Tapper during a fishing trip in Montana, Newsom said he would defer to Harris, calling a potential matchup between them "mutually assured destruction" given their overlapping voter base.

Tapper pushed back, noting Harris has run for president twice and lost both times, but Newsom held to his position, citing shared supporters and allies. Newsom took a similar stance in 2024, backing Harris after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race.

The comments come as Newsom's own national ambitions have grown more visible, including recent outreach to South Carolina Democrats seen as early positioning for 2028. Newsom has been viewed by early polling as a potential frontrunner, making his conditional pledge notable for handicapping the Democratic field.