Wyoming Senate Race: Margin of Victory

Wyoming Secretary of State Chuck Gray has won the Republican primary for the state's open at-large House seat, positioning him as the heavy favorite in the solidly Republican district. He is set to succeed Rep. Harriet Hageman, who is running for the U.S. Senate this cycle.

Gray, who has promoted false claims of widespread fraud in the 2020 election and traveled to Arizona in 2021 to observe a partisan audit of that state's results, previously ran against then-Rep. Liz Cheney before dropping out once President Trump endorsed Hageman. Gray won his secretary of state primary in 2022 with Trump's backing. Former state Senate Minority Leader Lisa Kinney is projected to win the Democratic nomination for the seat. The general election matchup sets up a heavily lopsided contest given Wyoming's Republican lean, making Gray's primary win the effective deciding moment in the race.

State Sen. Eric Barlow won Wyoming's Republican gubernatorial primary, defeating President Trump's endorsed candidate, state Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder, along with retired Marine Col. Brent Bien and rodeo producer Curt Blake. Barlow, a rancher, veterinarian, and former Wyoming House speaker, prevailed despite attacks from the party's right flank labeling him too moderate and despite Degenfelder having nearly matched his campaign fundraising. Degenfelder had Trump's backing as well as support from Rep. Harriet Hageman, who separately won Wyoming's U.S. Senate primary the same night.

Barlow will face Democrat Kenneth Casner and Constitution Party candidate Rebecca Bextel in November, but is heavily favored in a state where Republicans outnumber Democrats roughly 7-to-1 and no Democrat has won the governorship since 2006. The race is one of several open contests in Wyoming this cycle, following term-limited Gov. Mark Gordon's departure and Sen. Cynthia Lummis' decision not to seek reelection, creating simultaneous open races for governor, Senate, and the state's House seat for the first time in over three decades.

A ConsumerAffairs analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data ranks the Jacksonville metro area No. 2 among the 100 largest U.S. metros for property taxes rising faster than home values from 2022 to 2024. The typical homeowner's tax bill rose 21.7% while median home values increased 8.1%, a gap second only to Lakeland-Winter Haven, Florida. Nationally, home values rose faster than taxes over the same period, though a five-year view shows Jacksonville home values up 63.1% since 2019, outpacing a 44.9% rise in taxes.

Florida's Amendment 3, needing 60% approval, would raise the non-school homestead exemption to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028 while cutting the non-homestead assessment-growth cap from 10% to 5%. Backed by Gov. Ron DeSantis, it has split Republicans and drawn opposition from police, firefighter, and county groups warning of billions in lost local revenue; proponents argue local governments can absorb cuts after years of rapid tax collection growth.

A super PAC with ties to Republican vendors, Enough Promises Ohio, has expanded its spending to roughly $1.8 million supporting independent candidate Greg Levy and attacking Democrat Sherrod Brown in Ohio's U.S. Senate special election. Federal filings show about $753,000 for media through Outbound Messaging LLC and $1.04 million for mailers via Seven Farms, a vendor linked to operatives who previously worked on Bernie Moreno's 2024 campaign against Brown. Levy's campaign has disavowed the mailers and condemned them as voter deception. A separate GOP-aligned PAC, Sentinel Action Fund, spent over $280,000 backing Republican Jon Husted. Analysts say boosting a minor candidate can siphon votes in a tight race ahead of the Nov. 3 election to fill J.D. Vance's former seat.

Texas households received mailers this month branded as a "Texas Trans & LGBTQ+ Student Resource Guide," arriving as early voting began. The materials pointed minors toward hormones, out-of-state medical transition, and legal emancipation from parents. The Transgender Education Network of Texas (TENT), whose branding appeared throughout, denies producing or approving the pamphlet. Investigators traced it to a Wyoming-registered shell company with a nonexistent return address, prompting a forgery investigation by a local district attorney. No sender has been identified, and TENT is seeking to depose the vendors involved.

While the mailer's origin remains unconfirmed, its content echoes real debates over parental rights, gender-identity policy in schools, and state laws like Texas's bans on youth medical transition and school gender clubs.

Florida's primaries produced a mixed picture for both parties ahead of November's general election. Rep. Byron Donalds won the Republican gubernatorial nomination with Trump's endorsement and a large financial edge, beating Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, former House Speaker Paul Renner and newcomer James Fishback despite Gov. Ron DeSantis's public misgivings; Donalds would become Florida's first Black governor if elected. Former Republican congressman David Jolly, running with Gwen Graham as his lieutenant governor pick, won the Democratic nomination over state Rep. Dotie Joseph and others, pitching himself as a centrist who wants to end the culture wars. The two will meet in November to succeed the term-limited DeSantis, in a state where Democrats haven't won the governorship in over 30 years.

Progressive state Rep. Angie Nixon defeated establishment-backed Alex Vindman for the Senate Democratic nomination despite being outspent; she faces Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, who won her primary with Trump's backing, in the special election for Marco Rubio's former seat. Incumbents Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Jared Moskowitz turned back challengers, including Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, in redrawn districts under Florida's new Republican-favored congressional map. Trump-endorsed Cory Mills lost his House primary amid domestic violence allegations, while far-right figures Dan Bilzerian and Madison Cawthorn were also defeated, alongside Rep. Randy Fine's contentious win.

Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon, a Republican, said this week he has asked the state attorney general to look into the conduct of Justice Department election observers who monitored the state's primaries last week, calling their behavior "aggressive" and "irregular." Gordon said state and local officials were not notified in advance of the DOJ's plans and that the observers' conduct appeared to exceed the authority Congress had granted them, though he stressed he saw no evidence anything went wrong with the election itself.

Laramie County Clerk Debra Lee, also a Republican, said the monitors requested training guides, asked about equipment procurement, sought to examine tabulators, and tried to interview voters — requests she denied as outside the scope of federal voting rights law. The DOJ deployed more than 80 monitors across seven states during this year's primaries, part of a broader plan to send up to 1,000 monitors during the midterms, a move that has drawn criticism from Democrats and voting rights advocates amid the administration's continued unfounded election fraud claims.

Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon (R) raised concerns at a State Canvassing Board meeting about the Justice Department's conduct while monitoring the state's Aug. 18 primary, calling the observers' behavior "a bit aggressive" and "irregular" and saying it exceeded the authority Congress gave them. Attorney General Keith Kautz, a gubernatorial appointee, is conducting a fact-finding investigation into the two DOJ Civil Rights Division attorneys deployed to Laramie County; Gordon said he is not alleging any outcome-altering effect or objecting to observers generally, only their conduct.

Secretary of State Chuck Gray said his office only received an email about the deployment, and defended the monitoring as consistent with state law. Laramie County Clerk Debra Lee said monitors lacked initial credentials, asked questions beyond federal voting-law scope, requested poll worker training materials and tabulator access, and unsuccessfully tried to interview voters, calling it "a poorly managed exercise." U.S. Attorney Darin Smith said monitors were sent to ensure transparency, ballot security, and compliance with federal voting rights statutes. The DOJ deployed more than 80 monitors to over 200 sites across seven states this primary season, with plans to send roughly 1,000 monitors nationwide for November's midterms, drawing scrutiny over federal overreach.

State Rep. Kristian Grant, a Grand Rapids Democrat, will again face Republican challenger Ryan Malinoski in the Nov. 3 general election for Michigan's 82nd House District, marking their third consecutive matchup. The district, covering Grand Rapids' southeast side, part of downtown, and a portion of Wyoming, leans strongly Democratic. Grant defeated Malinoski decisively in both 2022 and 2024, each time capturing roughly three-quarters of the vote.

Grant, a real estate developer and former Grand Rapids school board trustee, responded to a League of Women Voters/MLive Vote411 voter guide outlining positions on education funding, living wages, energy affordability, and due-process protections for all residents, including noncitizens. Malinoski, an Aramark event services manager and Kent County GOP secretary, did not participate in the questionnaire. Given the district's historical voting patterns and Grant's wide margins in prior elections, the race is considered low-competitiveness heading into November.

Eric Snow, a Teton County, Wyoming sheriff's deputy running as the Republican challenger to incumbent Democrat Sheriff Matt Carr, was placed on administrative leave 13 days before the election. The move followed scrutiny over a traffic stop in which Snow allegedly did not conduct a full DUI investigation despite a high breathalyzer reading, and a separate recently dismissed DUI arrest that had been referred to, then declined by, the FBI. Carr was reportedly recused from the leave decision due to the election. Snow's attorney called the action unfair and improper, while some Republicans have questioned its timing. The Wyoming Highway Patrol is conducting a non-criminal personnel review.