Which Party Wins White Women in the 2026 Midterms

Polling and interviews across Texas point to a significant erosion of Latino support for President Trump since his 2024 gains, driven by frustration over high prices, gas costs, and aggressive ICE enforcement that has rattled South Texas communities and economies. Strategists describe the shift as a rebuke of Republicans rather than genuine enthusiasm for Democrats, who still carry a damaged brand with many Latino voters. The trend could shape Texas's competitive U.S. Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico, as well as newly redrawn majority-Hispanic congressional districts. Analysts expect Latino support for Democrats to partially rebound toward 2018 levels, but caution that voters remain persuadable and increasingly judge candidates individually rather than by party.

Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, centered on Omaha and one of just eight districts nationally that backed Kamala Harris in 2024 while electing a Republican to the House, is shaping up as a marquee 2026 midterm contest following Rep. Don Bacon's retirement. Republican Omaha City Councilmember Brinker Harding, who has President Trump's endorsement and backing from House GOP leadership, faces Democratic activist Denise Powell, co-founder of Women Who Run Nebraska, who has campaigned alongside potential 2028 Democratic hopefuls Pete Buttigieg and Rahm Emanuel.

Trump plans to headline a Republican midterm convention in Dallas and has been visiting contested districts to energize the GOP base despite low approval ratings. Democrats, meanwhile, are betting that anxiety over Medicare and affordability, plus backlash to Trump, can flip the historically Republican-held seat, building on a local "Blue Dot" movement. Nebraska has voted Democratic for president only once since 1964, but the district has split its electoral vote three of the last five cycles, making it a rare swing-district test of Trump's midterm influence.

Democrat Sherrod Brown released a viral 30-second ad attacking Republican Sen. Jon Husted over remarks Husted made in March about people living in poverty. The ad features Ohio residents reacting with shock and profanity as they watch a clip of Husted saying poor people are "not very experienced at navigating the real world" and describing a young woman on food stamps who he said didn't "understand how money works at a grocery store," adding that "you literally have to teach people how to budget." It drew over 350,000 views within hours, praised by Brown supporters as exposing Husted as out of touch while drawing backlash from the right.

The ad comes as two new polls, from Suffolk University/USA Today and Marist, show Brown leading Husted by three and eight points respectively ahead of Ohio's Nov. 3 special Senate election to finish JD Vance's term. Both surveys found broad dissatisfaction with President Trump's job performance and economic concerns weighing on voters, continuing a months-long trend of polling favoring Brown, a former longtime senator ousted in 2024.