Maine’s 2nd District House Race: Who Will Win

A closely watched race in Montana's 1st congressional district has become a test of whether economic populism or culture-war messaging resonates more with voters. Democrat Sam Forstag, a wildland firefighter and former ACLU lobbyist, has focused his campaign on housing affordability and cost-of-living frustrations, while Republican Aaron Flint, a former conservative radio host, has leaned into attacks portraying Forstag as a "radical" on gender and sexual orientation issues. President Trump campaigned in the state for Flint this week, underscoring the race's national profile.

Polling shows the contest within a few points either way, and the Cook Political Report recently shifted its rating from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican." A heated debate this week saw Flint brand Forstag "Phony Forstag" over his past LGBTQ advocacy work, while Forstag kept his focus on housing costs, private equity's role in the rental market, and wage stagnation. Montana Democrats argue the state's independent streak favors pocketbook messaging over national identity politics, making the race a bellwether for broader midterm strategy debates.

Republican Paul LePage, the former two-term Maine governor known as "Trump before Trump," was expected to easily flip the open 2nd District seat after Democratic Representative Jared Golden's retirement. Instead, rising fuel and living costs tied to tariffs and the Iran conflict have narrowed the race against Democratic State Auditor Matt Dunlap, who won a contested primary after Golden initially withdrew. Polls show a close contest in a district Trump carried by nine points in 2024, prompting heavy outside spending and visits from Speaker Mike Johnson and Vice President JD Vance. LePage, 78, has softened his combative style and touted his access to Trump, while Dunlap emphasizes cost-of-living concerns and LePage's past Medicaid expansion vetoes. The race is seen as the GOP's best chance to flip a Democratic-held seat this cycle.

Maine Democrats are demanding that Sen. Susan Collins address a ProPublica report alleging the FBI planned in 2024 to investigate whether she knew about illegal campaign contributions tied to Hawaii defense contractor Navatek. The report says a Collins fundraiser sought a $500,000 donation from Navatek executives in 2019, and CEO Martin Kao funneled $150,000 through a shell company after Collins allegedly committed to securing the company $32 million in Navy contracts. Kao and two other executives were later indicted for illegal campaign donations; Kao is now serving additional prison time after pleading guilty. ProPublica reported the probe stalled after Trump took office in 2021, amid a broader pullback in corruption investigations under his administration, including cuts to the Justice Department's Public Integrity Section and an FBI public-corruption squad.

Collins called the allegations "categorically false" and attacked Kao's credibility given his fraud and money-laundering convictions; the FBI said it already investigated and found nothing implicating her. Senate Majority Leader John Thune called the report "a political hit job." It lands six weeks before Collins seeks a sixth term against Democrat Troy Jackson, who called the allegations "corruption of the highest order," in a pivotal Senate race in a state Trump lost in 2024.

A Republican super PAC supporting Sen. Susan Collins of Maine mistakenly ran digital ads targeting her Democratic challenger, state Senate President Troy Jackson, in Portland, Oregon, instead of Portland, Maine. Defending Main Street confirmed its media vendor spent roughly $25,000 on the misplaced ad buy before the error was caught and corrected. The group's ad buyer, working with Cross Screen Media and the 1903 Group, took full responsibility and is refunding the misspent amount, meaning no donor funds will be lost.

The mix-up comes in one of the most closely watched Senate races in the country. Collins is the only Republican senator representing a state carried by Kamala Harris in 2024, making her seat a top Democratic target as the party seeks to flip Republicans' narrow 53-47 Senate majority. While the error itself was minor and quickly fixed, it underscores the intense national attention and spending already surrounding the Maine contest well ahead of the election.

A new CNN/SSRS poll shows Democratic Senate candidates with slight, within-margin-of-error leads in two closely watched races. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 47% to 44% among likely voters. In Maine, Troy Jackson leads incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins 48% to 45%. Both races are considered pivotal to which party controls Congress after the November midterms.

Cost of living and dissatisfaction with President Trump were top concerns for voters in both states, with roughly two-thirds disapproving of his job performance and majorities calling his tariffs harmful. In Maine, Jackson's edge appears driven more by opposition to Collins than enthusiasm for him, with most of his supporters framing their vote as "against" her. In Michigan, a sizable share of voters see El-Sayed as "too liberal," though many still view him as "about right." Both races remain highly competitive, with meaningful shares of persuadable voters in each state ahead of Election Day.

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson met for their final debate before the final stretch of the Maine Senate race, this one hosted by Maine Public and The Portland Herald. Jackson again sought to tie Collins to President Trump's agenda, pointing to her vote advancing Trump's tax and spending bill despite her later opposition to the final version. Collins countered that she sides with Trump roughly 72 percent of the time, not the higher figures Jackson cited, and touted her votes to confirm three Democratic-nominated Supreme Court justices and her unsuccessful effort to block Pete Hegseth's confirmation as defense secretary. The Iran war remained contentious, with Jackson arguing Collins failed to use her Appropriations Committee chairmanship to cut off funding, while Collins defended her War Powers votes and said Congress should have been consulted.

A notable moment came when Jackson, who had pledged to reject billionaire and corporate PAC money, admitted receiving billionaire donations and $15,000 from oil and pharmaceutical interests, which he said he donated to charity. Collins also criticized his delayed financial disclosure. A protester briefly interrupted over AI data center concerns.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez campaigned in Portland, Maine, for Democrat Troy Jackson, who is challenging Sen. Susan Collins in one of the midterms' most closely watched Senate races. Jackson, a logger from rural northern Maine, entered the race after Graham Platner's campaign collapsed amid sexual assault allegations. Ocasio-Cortez praised Jackson's willingness to campaign alongside a progressive New York lawmaker in a politically different state, and touted policies including Medicare for All and abortion and transgender rights. Jackson addressed concerns from Mainers wary of progressive politics, drawing on his own working-class upbringing. Democrats need to flip Maine and several other GOP-held seats to retake Senate control.

Maine's 2026 Senate race is drawing national attention as Republican incumbent Susan Collins seeks a sixth term against Democratic challenger Troy Jackson, in a contest seen as pivotal to control of the chamber. Collins has emphasized independence from President Trump during campaign events, including a recent debate. Former Democratic-turned-independent Senator Joe Manchin, who endorsed Collins and called her "the soul of the Senate," is set to campaign alongside her at an event in central Maine this week. The race is one of several competitive statewide contests in Maine, alongside governor and congressional races, making the state a key battleground for the 2026 midterms.