Massachusetts Senate Election: Will Voter Turnout Break Records
Massachusetts voters head to the polls on November 3, 2026, to decide the state’s U.S. Senate seat. Turnout in midterm Senate races varies widely depending on the competitiveness of the contest, national political mood, and down-ballot measures that drive people to vote. Markets have set a series of turnout thresholds, ranging from roughly 2.2 million to over 4 million votes cast.
Why Markets Are Watching
Turnout levels shape the legitimacy and representativeness of election outcomes, especially in a state with a large registered electorate but historically uneven midterm participation. High or low turnout can also signal broader national engagement trends heading into the 2026 midterms. Massachusetts, often seen as reliably Democratic, offers a test case for whether competitive dynamics or apathy define turnout this cycle.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Turnout Question
Rather than asking who wins, these contracts isolate a single variable: how many ballots will actually be cast. Each threshold functions as a distinct yes-or-no proposition, letting traders express views on whether turnout will exceed specific vote counts. This turns a logistical and civic metric into a tradeable signal of voter enthusiasm and electoral intensity.
Related terms
Total Volume
$2.7k
Kalshi $1.6k · Polymarket $1.2k
Leading Market
Above 2.20M
Kalshi 92%
Above 2.20M Volume
$0.12
Kalshi $0.12
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.20M | 91.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
— | — | — |
| Above 2.5M | — | — | — | 65.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Above 2.35M | — | — | — | 99.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Above 2.40M | 78.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
— | — | — |
| Above 2.65M | — | — | — | 65.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
New Hampshire primary voters set fall matchups for open Senate and House seats
PN Team • 2 months ago
New Hampshire held primary elections Tuesday to pick nominees for Congress, governor and the state Legislature, with Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's retirement reshaping the ballot. Rep. Chris Pappas led a five-way Democratic Senate field that included progressive challenger Karishma Manzur, a research scientist and democratic socialist whose late surge, fueled by criticism of Pappas' pro-Israel donor support and his "present" vote on restricting arms sales to Israel, narrowed his once-commanding lead despite his large fundraising advantage and Shaheen's endorsement. On the Republican side, John Sununu, endorsed by President Trump over rival Scott Brown, held a wide edge among eight candidates; both Sununu and Brown are former senators previously defeated by Shaheen. The seat is one of a handful nationally that could help decide Senate control, with Democrats needing a net gain of four seats.
Pappas' departure from the 1st District opened a crowded race, with Stefany Shaheen (Jeanne Shaheen's daughter) and Maura Sullivan leading a nine-person Democratic field; Republicans chose among five candidates including Trump-endorsed businessman Anthony DiLorenzo and repeat candidate Hollie Noveletsky. In the 2nd District, Democratic Rep. Maggie Goodlander faced a primary challenge from state legislator Paige Beauchemin, while Republicans chose from candidates including repeat nominee Lily Tang Williams. Gov. Kelly Ayotte easily advanced toward a second term against two Republican rivals, favored against unopposed Democrat Cinde Warmington. Winners have eight weeks to campaign before the November 3 general election, as New Hampshire shifts future primaries to June starting in 2026.
Sources:
Sentiment
- John E. Sununu Sununu is shown holding a wide lead with Trump's endorsement, a favorable portrayal of his campaign strength.
- Donald Trump Trump's endorsement of Sununu is portrayed as a boost to Sununu's campaign, reflecting positively on Trump's political influence.
- Israel Israel is mentioned in the context of controversy over arms sales and donor support affecting Pappas' campaign.
- New Hampshire New Hampshire is the setting of the primary election, described factually as undergoing a normal electoral process.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party's crowded primary fields are described factually without clear favorable or unfavorable framing.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican Party's competitive primary races are reported neutrally.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned only as the office being contested, with no reputational framing.
- United States House of Representatives The House seat race is described factually without reputational implications for the institution.
- United States Senate The Senate seat and its national significance are discussed neutrally.
Related Events
Related Events
Elections
Massachusetts voters to decide on top-two primary system
PN Team • 1 week ago
Massachusetts voters face a record nine ballot questions this cycle, including Question 3, which would replace the state's partisan primary with a "top-two" system: all candidates appear on one primary ballot, and the top two vote-getters advance to the general election, regardless of party. Approval would make Massachusetts the third state, after California and Washington, to use the model.
Supporters, including the Coalition for Healthy Democracy, argue the change empowers the state's large unenrolled-voter bloc (67% of the electorate) and increases competitiveness. Opponents, such as Voter Rights MA, warn it could let two candidates from the same party reach November, reducing choice and entrenching the two-party system. A recent Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll showed supporters with a narrow lead. If passed, the system could begin in 2028, though lawmakers could amend or delay it.
Sources:
Sentiment
- California California is cited neutrally as one of two states already using the top-two primary model.
- Washington (state) Washington state is mentioned neutrally as a precedent for the top-two primary system.
- Massachusetts Massachusetts is the central subject of a balanced report on a contested ballot measure, with no clear reputational slant.
Related Events
Related Events
Elections
Massachusetts holds primary elections, with Markey-Moulton Senate race in focus
PN Team • 2 months ago
Massachusetts voters headed to the polls Tuesday for state primary elections, with polling locations open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Statewide officeholders including Gov. Maura Healey, Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll and Attorney General Andrea Campbell face no primary opposition ahead of their fall reelection bids, but Republicans chose between Mike Minogue and Brian Shortsleeve in a contested gubernatorial primary.
The marquee race is Rep. Seth Moulton's challenge to longtime Sen. Ed Markey, with Markey's age, 80, a central theme of the campaign. Two other Democratic incumbents, Reps. Jake Auchincloss and Bill Keating, faced primary challengers Jason Poulos and Craig Swallow, respectively, in districts covering parts of Bristol County and Southeastern Massachusetts. Several state legislative seats in Bristol County also drew contested primaries. Results were expected after polls closed Tuesday evening.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Massachusetts Massachusetts is the setting for the primary elections, a neutral factual reference.
- Maura Healey Healey is mentioned as an unopposed incumbent, a neutral factual mention.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic Party is mentioned as the affiliation of several candidates in a factual, neutral context.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican Party is mentioned neutrally as having a contested gubernatorial primary.
- United States House of Representatives The House is referenced via the incumbents' titles in a purely factual context.
- United States Senate The Senate is mentioned factually as the seat being contested by Markey and Moulton.
Related Events
Related Events
Elections
Massachusetts holds primary vote in Markey-Moulton Senate showdown
PN Team • 2 months ago
Massachusetts voters headed to the polls Tuesday in a primary highlighted by a competitive Democratic Senate contest between incumbent Sen. Ed Markey, 80, and U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton, 47. The race reverses a familiar dynamic in this year's Democratic primaries, with progressives Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez backing the incumbent over the more moderate challenger. Markey held a large fundraising advantage and led recent polls by double digits; Moulton, a Marine veteran and 2020 presidential candidate, drew support from The Boston Globe's editorial board, New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill, and VoteVets. Moulton has also faced scrutiny over past comments on transgender athletes, which he has since apologized for. The primary winner will face Republican John Deaton in November.
Similar generational clashes played out down-ballot: progressive attorney Patrick Roath, who has spent more than $1 million on his campaign, challenged longtime Rep. Stephen Lynch in the 8th District, while a crowded six-way Democratic field, including Dan Koh and Tram Nguyen, competed to succeed Moulton in the 6th District. Other notable races include a Republican gubernatorial primary between Mike Minogue and Brian Shortsleeve, and contested district attorney races in Norfolk and Suffolk counties. Given the state's heavy Democratic lean, primary winners are strongly favored in November, with results shaping the competitive landscape ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Sources:
Sentiment
- United States Marine Corps Positively noted as Moulton's military background, lending him a favorable veteran credential.
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Portrayed positively as a progressive figure endorsing the incumbent, aligning her with the progressive movement's stance.
- Bernie Sanders Portrayed positively as a prominent progressive backing Markey.
- Elizabeth Warren Noted positively as a progressive senator supporting the incumbent.
- Democratic Party (United States) The article describes competitive Democratic primaries without clear favorable or unfavorable framing of the party itself.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned only factually as the general-election opponent's party via John Deaton.
- Massachusetts Referenced factually as the state holding the primary election.
- New Jersey Referenced factually as the state governed by Mikie Sherrill, who is mentioned as an endorser.
- United States Congress Referenced factually as the body these candidates seek to join.
- United States House of Representatives Referenced factually as the chamber where Moulton and Lynch currently serve.
- United States Senate Referenced factually as the seat being contested in the primary.
Related Events
Related Events
Congress
Ed Markey fends off Seth Moulton in Massachusetts Senate primary
PN Team • 2 months ago
Massachusetts Senator Ed Markey, 80, won the Democratic primary Tuesday over U.S. Representative Seth Moulton, 47, who had campaigned on generational change. Markey, in Congress for nearly 50 years, drew support from progressive leaders including Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Elizabeth Warren, along with most of the state's congressional delegation. Moulton, a moderate Marine Corps veteran, was backed by New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill, VoteVets, and The Boston Globe's editorial board, which praised his "proven leadership." Markey held a fundraising edge of nearly $2 million and led by double digits in polling. He is heavily favored in November in a state Kamala Harris won by nearly 25 points in 2024.
A similar generational contest is unfolding in Boston's 8th District, where moderate Representative Stephen Lynch, 71, faces progressive challenger Patrick Roath, 39, who has outraised Lynch and narrowed his polling lead. Democrats hold all Massachusetts House and Senate seats, and this year's primary winners will be strongly favored in the general election.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Cited as a progressive leader endorsing the winning candidate, a modest positive association.
- Bernie Sanders Cited as a progressive leader backing the winning candidate, a modest positive association.
- Elizabeth Warren Cited as a progressive leader supporting the winning candidate, a modest positive association.
- Kamala Harris Mentioned only as context for the state's political lean in 2024, tangential.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as the party context for the primary without specific reputational framing.
- Massachusetts Mentioned as the state context for the elections, neutral factual reference.
- United States Marine Corps Mentioned as Moulton's veteran background, a mildly positive credential.
- Boston Referenced as the location of the 8th District race, purely factual.
- United States House of Representatives Referenced as the institution both Moulton and Lynch serve in, purely factual.
- United States Senate Referenced as the office being contested, factual mention.
Related Events
Related Events
Elections
Warren, Markey Join Opposition to Massachusetts Marijuana Repeal Measure
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
U.S. Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Ed Markey (both D-MA) have announced they will vote against Question 8, the November ballot initiative seeking to repeal Massachusetts' regulated commercial marijuana sales and home cultivation while keeping possession and medical cannabis legal. Both senators cited strong public support and the risks of pushing consumers back to the unregulated market. Their opposition joins recent statements from Gov. Maura Healey and Rep. Ayanna Pressley, who also urged voters to reject the measure.
Multiple recent polls show the repeal effort trailing significantly, with opposition ranging from 55 to 71 percent. The state's Cannabis Control Commission reports adult-use sales have topped $10 billion since 2018, and industry advocates warn repeal could cost thousands of jobs and significant tax revenue. The measure, largely backed by Smart Approaches to Marijuana's SAM Action, has also faced legal challenges over signature-gathering tactics and ballot language, though courts and election officials have allowed it to proceed to voters.
Sources:
Related Events
Related Events
Congress
Markey defeats Moulton in Massachusetts Senate primary, resisting generational-change push
PN Team • 2 months ago
Sen. Ed Markey, 80, has defeated Rep. Seth Moulton, 47, in Massachusetts' Democratic Senate primary, turning back a generational-change challenge to secure his party's nomination for a third full term. Moulton, a Marine veteran and moderate, argued Markey's decades in Washington hadn't delivered results, while Markey rallied progressives by citing his 2022 climate legislation and backing from Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Moulton also faced criticism over 2024 remarks on transgender athletes, which he apologized for; in his concession speech he pledged to support Markey and said his campaign had started necessary conversations. Markey, who beat Joe Kennedy III in 2020, now advances as the favorite against Republican John Deaton, who was unopposed in his primary and previously lost to Warren by about 20 points, and Markey says he won't seek a fourth term if reelected.
Similar generational contests played out down-ballot: Rep. Stephen Lynch, 71, defeated attorney Patrick Roath, 39, in the 8th District, and Rep. Richard Neal, 77, defeated progressive teacher Jeromie Whalen, 39, in the 1st District, with older incumbents prevailing in both races. A crowded six-way race also continues to replace Moulton in the 6th District, led by Dan Koh and state Rep. Tram Nguyen. Because Massachusetts leans heavily Democratic, these primaries effectively decide the general election winners in November.
Sentiment
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement is portrayed as helping Markey rally progressive support, a mildly favorable association.
- Bernie Sanders Sanders' endorsement helped Markey rally progressives, reflecting positively on his influence.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic primary contest is central to the story, reflecting the party's internal generational debate but without clear reputational harm or benefit.
- Elizabeth Warren Warren is mentioned as an endorser of Markey and as having previously defeated Deaton, a neutral-to-mildly favorable factual mention.
- Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. is referenced negatively by Moulton as symbolic of Markey's long tenure failing to deliver results.
- Massachusetts Massachusetts is the setting of the elections, mentioned factually without clear reputational impact.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican John Deaton is mentioned as the general election opponent in a factual, neutral context.
- United States Congress Congress is referenced factually as the body Markey has served in for decades.
- United States House of Representatives The House is mentioned factually as the chamber Moulton, Lynch, and Neal serve in.
- United States Senate The Senate seat is the subject of the primary race, mentioned factually.
Related Events
Related Events
Local & State
Massachusetts leaders urge voters to reject marijuana rollback as state cannabis policy shifts continue
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Dozens of Massachusetts lawmakers, including the House speaker and Senate president, are urging voters to defeat a November ballot measure that would roll back the state's marijuana legalization law. The push comes amid broader cannabis policy developments: Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear announced medical cannabis dispensaries are now operating statewide, and a new North Carolina poll found majority bipartisan support for both recreational and medical legalization. Other state activity includes New Jersey advancing hemp drink and unlicensed-sales legislation, Oklahoma's new medical cannabis packaging rules taking effect November 1, and an Iowa psychedelic church securing a DEA agreement to import ayahuasca. These developments reflect continued momentum and regulatory flux across state-level cannabis and psychedelic policy.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Andy Beshear Beshear is noted for overseeing the successful statewide rollout of medical cannabis dispensaries, a mildly positive policy achievement.
- Kentucky Kentucky is portrayed positively as successfully launching statewide medical cannabis dispensaries.
- Massachusetts Massachusetts leaders are shown proactively defending existing cannabis legalization against rollback, a mildly favorable civic action.
- North Carolina North Carolina is mentioned positively in context of a poll showing bipartisan support for cannabis legalization.
- Iowa Iowa is mentioned for a church's DEA agreement to import ayahuasca, a neutral factual development.
Related Events
Related Events
In the News
Lindsay Clancy Trial Spotlights Massachusetts’ Unique Insanity Defense Standard
PN Team • 2 months ago
The trial of Lindsay Clancy, a Massachusetts mother accused of strangling her three children — Cora, Dawson, and Callan — has drawn national attention to the state's distinctive insanity defense standard. Unlike most jurisdictions, Massachusetts places the burden of proof on prosecutors, who must show beyond a reasonable doubt that a defendant both understood right from wrong and could control her actions. Clancy's defense has centered on claims of postpartum psychosis and inadequate mental health treatment leading up to the killings.
The case has become a flashpoint in broader debates over abortion policy, mental health law, and criminal accountability in Massachusetts, following Governor Maura Healey's signing of legislation expanding abortion access. Commentators have drawn comparisons to a similar case in Illinois, where a woman allegedly killed her two-year-old child using the same method, but under a less demanding legal standard for proving insanity. The outcome of the Clancy trial is expected to test how the commonwealth's unusual evidentiary threshold functions in a high-profile child homicide case, with implications for future legal proceedings involving mental illness defenses.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Maura Healey Healey is mentioned neutrally in connection with abortion legislation tangential to the case's political context.
- United States The United States is mentioned only as the context for national attention to the trial.
- Massachusetts Massachusetts is discussed factually as the jurisdiction with a unique insanity defense standard central to the trial.
Related Events
Related Events
Congress
Massachusetts primaries set fall matchups for governor, Senate and Congress
PN Team • 2 months ago
Massachusetts primary voters largely stuck with incumbents while setting up several marquee fall races. Republican Mike Minogue, the former Abiomed executive who self-funded his campaign with roughly $15 million, defeated Brian Shortsleeve by a wide margin to earn the right to challenge Gov. Maura Healey, who ran unopposed. In the U.S. Senate primary, Ed Markey beat back a challenge from Rep. Seth Moulton by a nearly two-to-one margin, adding Moulton to a list of younger rivals, including former Rep. Joe Kennedy III, that Markey has turned aside in recent cycles.
Dan Koh won the crowded Democratic primary for Moulton's open House seat after a previous unsuccessful bid in 2018. All five incumbent U.S. House members facing primary challengers won, though Rep. Richard Neal saw an unexpectedly close race against a first-time candidate. The Norfolk County district attorney's race remains uncalled, with Djuna Elizabeth Perkins holding a narrow lead. On Beacon Hill, Boston Mayor Michelle Wu backed challengers against two state senators who had opposed her property tax proposal.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Maura Healey Maura Healey is portrayed positively as the incumbent governor who ran unopposed.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican primary is mentioned neutrally as part of the electoral process.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic primary races are described factually without favorable or unfavorable framing.
- Massachusetts Massachusetts is the neutral setting for the described primary elections.
- United States Congress Congress is referenced only as context for House and Senate races without evaluative framing.
Related Events
Related Events
Related Events
Massachusetts Senate Election: Who Will Win in 2026
Leading:
98.7%
Ed Markey
Vol $49.8k
Massachusetts’ 8th District House Race: Who Will Win?
Leading:
95.5%
Stephen Lynch
Vol $16k
Montana Senate Election: Voter Turnout
Leading:
95%
Above 350K
Vol $58.30
Alabama Senate Election: Voter Turnout Threshold
Leading:
95%
Above 1.2M
Vol $0.00
West Virginia Senate Election: Voter Turnout
Leading:
79%
Above 470K
Vol $23.00
New Mexico Senate Election: How Many Voters Will Turn Out
Leading:
91%
Above 850K
Vol $0.00
Idaho Senate Race: Margin of Victory
Leading:
83%
Risch, 3+ pts
Vol $382.63
Oklahoma Senate Election: Voter Turnout Threshold
Leading:
91%
Above 1.00M
Vol $71.66