Texas’s 36th District House Race Heads Toward 2026 Election

President Donald Trump traveled to Houston to headline a Republican National Committee fundraiser for Ken Paxton's U.S. Senate campaign, marking his first in-person push for the Texas attorney general's bid against Democrat James Talarico. The visit comes as recent polling, including a University of Texas survey, shows Talarico opening a narrow lead after trailing two months earlier. Sen. Ted Cruz has publicly warned that Talarico has a "real chance" of flipping the seat, while Sen. John Cornyn, who lost the GOP primary to Paxton, has criticized Paxton as a lazy, uncompelling candidate.

The race highlights a fundraising gap: Talarico has vastly outspent Paxton on advertising, though GOP ad spending recently overtook Democrats' for the first time. National Republican super PACs, including the Senate Leadership Fund and MAGA Inc., have so far held back major spending on Paxton's behalf, and conservative legal figure Leonard Leo has directed money to other Senate races instead. A pro-Paxton group has begun attack ads against Talarico, while Talarico unveiled a healthcare proposal backed by Mark Cuban. The contest is viewed as a key test of GOP strength in Texas and could affect Senate control.

One year after Gov. Greg Abbott signed Texas's mid-decade "One Big Beautiful Map," redrawing five congressional districts at President Trump's urging, polling suggests Republicans may not be reaping the gains they expected. The redistricting combined Black-majority districts in Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth and paired two Austin Democrats, while shifting South Texas seats to favor the GOP, aiming for a net five-seat pickup for Republicans nationally.

Recent Texas Southern University polling shows Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar leading in District 28 and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez ahead in District 34, despite both districts being redrawn to favor Trump. In District 15, Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz trails Tejano musician Bobby Pulido despite a district redrawn heavily in Trump's favor. District 35, created by merging two Austin Democratic incumbents' territory, remains a contested open seat where House Speaker Mike Johnson recently campaigned for Republican Carlos De La Cruz against Democrat Johnny Garcia.

The shifting numbers, attributed partly to fallout from immigration enforcement, tariffs and inflation, complicate Republican hopes of using redistricting to offset historic midterm losses for the party controlling the White House.

Twelve U.S. House seats covering the Dallas-Fort Worth area are on the Nov. 3 midterm ballot, with early voting running Oct. 19-30. Most races feature Republican incumbents—Keith Self, Pat Fallon, Lance Gooden, Jake Ellzey, Craig Goldman, Ronny Jackson, Beth Van Duyne and Roger Williams—facing Democratic challengers, plus a Libertarian in District 26. Three open seats stand out: District 30, vacated by Jasmine Crockett after her Senate run; and Districts 32 and 33, left open by Julie Johnson and Marc Veasey, respectively, after mid-decade redistricting reshaped them from Democratic-leaning to Republican-favored territory. In District 33, Colin Allred faces Patrick David Gillespie. Results are expected after 7 p.m. on Election Day.