CA-51 House winner?
Total Volume
$50.4k
Kalshi $1.1k · Polymarket $49.3k
Leading Market
Sara Jacobs
Kalshi 98% · Polymarket 98%
Sara Jacobs Volume
$26.4k
Kalshi $917.99 · Polymarket $25.4k
Sara Jacobs 24h Change
-1.00%
Kalshi 0.00% · Polymarket -1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sara JacobsDemocratic Party | 99.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
99.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Ricardo Cabrera MartínezRepublican Party | 2.9¢ | 7.0% |
|
3.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
San Diego County releases voter guide for November general election
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
California voters head to the polls in November to decide statewide and local races alongside 14 ballot propositions, including a closely watched "billionaires tax" measure and a recall-process reform. San Diego County's voter guide outlines a packed slate of contests, with voter pamphlets mailed in late September and ballots beginning to arrive October 5.
Key federal races include five competitive U.S. House districts (48–52), pitting incumbents and challengers from both parties after redistricting reshaped several seats. State Senate and Assembly races feature multiple incumbents defending seats, while the California State Board of Equalization's District 4 race pits a local water official against a sitting state senator.
Locally, San Diego County voters will also choose county supervisors, school board members, and city officials across numerous municipalities including San Diego, Chula Vista, Carlsbad, Escondido, Oceanside, and others, alongside mayoral races and special district seats covering healthcare, water, and community college boards. The wide-ranging ballot reflects a highly competitive election cycle across Southern California.
Sources:
Sentiment
- California California is the backdrop state for the statewide and local election coverage, mentioned factually.
- California's 48th congressional district District 48 is listed among the five competitive U.S. House districts in a neutral factual mention.
- California's 49th congressional district District 49 is listed among the five competitive U.S. House districts in a neutral factual mention.
- California's 50th congressional district District 50 is listed among the five competitive U.S. House districts in a neutral factual mention.
- California's 51st congressional district District 51 is listed among the five competitive U.S. House districts in a neutral factual mention.
- California's 52nd congressional district District 52 is listed among the five competitive U.S. House districts in a neutral factual mention.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned neutrally as one of the parties with candidates in competitive races.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned neutrally as one of the parties with candidates in competitive races.
- San Diego San Diego is named as one of the municipalities holding local elections, a neutral factual mention.
- San Diego County, California San Diego County is the central subject of the article, providing a neutral voter guide.
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San Diego officials, Sen. Schiff denounce ICE arrests near schools
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Sen. Adam Schiff joined Reps. Sara Jacobs, Scott Peters, Juan Vargas and Mike Levin, along with San Diego Unified School District Superintendent Fabiola Bagula and board members, at Point Loma High School to condemn ICE arrests near schools. The news conference followed the arrest last month of two parents, whose Temporary Protected Status had reportedly been revoked, shortly after drop-off near John Marshall Elementary School. Officials said the children, ages 2 and 5, were left without their parents. Lawmakers criticized the Trump administration's immigration enforcement tactics as cruel and said federal officials have rebuffed requests for restraint near sensitive locations like schools, citing meetings described as unproductive.
The Department of Homeland Security dismissed the visit as a "political stunt," saying ICE targets criminals, not children, and denied arrests have occurred inside schools. The dispute comes amid ICE's reported statewide "Operation Safe California" enforcement push, now in its second week, with Democrats pointing to the midterm elections as a potential avenue for oversight and subpoena power.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Adam Schiff Schiff is shown leading a public stand against ICE arrests near schools, portraying him as a vocal advocate for families.
- Juan Vargas Vargas is portrayed positively as joining colleagues to condemn the arrests.
- Mike Levin Levin is shown participating in the advocacy effort against ICE tactics, a favorable portrayal.
- Sara Jacobs Jacobs is depicted as part of the coalition criticizing the enforcement actions, reflecting positively on her advocacy.
- Scott Peters (politician) Peters is included among lawmakers condemning the arrests, a favorable civic action.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are portrayed as advocates against the ICE arrests and are mentioned as potentially pursuing oversight, a mildly favorable framing.
- California California is mentioned as the site of the broader ICE enforcement operation, a neutral-to-slightly negative context.
- San Diego San Diego is the setting for the controversy but is not itself portrayed positively or negatively.
- United States Congress Congress is referenced tangentially through its members' participation and potential oversight role.
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Congress
Lawmakers press Pentagon over prolonged USS Abraham Lincoln deployment and crew conditions
PN Team • 2 months ago
San Diego's congressional delegation—Reps. Mike Levin, Scott Peters, Sara Jacobs and Juan Vargas—sent a letter to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao demanding answers over reported poor conditions aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln. The carrier and its roughly 5,000 sailors have been deployed since Thanksgiving supporting operations related to the war in Iran, exceeding 240 consecutive days at sea without a port stop and well past an initial May return date. Reports describe moldy showers, broken toilets, lack of hot water, food and supply shortages, and sailors attempting to jump overboard amid fatigue concerns.
Arizona Democratic Sens. Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego have also demanded Pentagon accountability, with Kelly citing sailors' mental health struggles. Hegseth has publicly denied the reports, accusing media of misrepresenting the strike group's mission. Lawmakers posed detailed questions about supply delays, safety reporting channels, meal access, and disease prevention. President Trump said the Lincoln will soon be relieved by the USS George Washington, though officials say that ship's arrival could still take several weeks, and he maintains the deployment has not been excessively long.
Lawmakers from San Diego and Arizona press the Pentagon over hardship conditions during the USS Abraham Lincoln's extended deployment.
Sources:
Sentiment
- United States Navy The Navy is portrayed unfavorably due to reported poor living conditions, safety incidents, and prolonged deployment strain on sailors.
- The Pentagon The Pentagon is the target of accountability demands over poor conditions aboard the deployed carrier.
- Mark Kelly Kelly is portrayed favorably for raising concerns about sailors' mental health and demanding accountability.
- United States Department of Defense The Department of Defense, led by Hegseth, faces criticism for denying poor conditions reports and lack of transparency.
- Juan Vargas Vargas is portrayed favorably as advocating for sailors' welfare.
- Ruben Gallego Gallego is shown positively pressing the Pentagon for accountability.
- Scott Peters (politician) Peters is portrayed favorably as part of the delegation advocating for sailors.
- United States Congress Congress members are portrayed positively as advocating for sailors' welfare and demanding accountability.
- United States Senate Senators are shown taking action to press for accountability over sailors' treatment, a favorable civic role.
- Donald Trump Trump downplays the severity of the deployment issue despite reported hardships, a mildly unfavorable framing.
- San Diego San Diego is mentioned as home to the congressional delegation advocating for sailors, a mildly positive civic association.
- Arizona Arizona is mentioned as the home state of senators involved, a neutral geographic reference.
- Iran Iran is mentioned as context for the deployment's mission, a neutral factual reference.
- United States The United States is mentioned in a general factual context regarding military operations.
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Local & State
California’s Prop. 36 struggles to deliver promised drug treatment, data shows
PN Team • 1 month ago
Two years after California voters passed Proposition 36, a tough-on-crime measure that let people charged with drug felonies opt into treatment instead of jail, an analysis of data from the state's largest counties finds few defendants actually completing treatment or having charges dismissed. Of 18,666 felony drug cases charged statewide last year, only 17% of defendants opted for treatment, and just 57 cases ended in dismissal after graduation. Implementation varies widely: some counties, like San Francisco, have made almost no arrests under the law, while others impose treatment periods ranging from three months to two years.
Prop. 36 passed without dedicated funding, and subsequent state budget allocations have fallen far short of what counties say they need. Shortages of treatment beds, case managers, and housing have left many participants, a large share of them homeless, unable to get consistent care. Old convictions with no statute of limitations have also triggered felony charges for people who had been sober for years. Prison admissions under the law are rising, though supporters argue the program is still helping people who otherwise would not seek treatment.
Sources:
Sentiment
- California California's flagship drug policy reform is shown falling short of its treatment goals due to underfunding and implementation problems.
- San Francisco San Francisco is cited as having made almost no arrests under the law, suggesting weak enforcement or implementation.
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Elections
San Diego County Rejects DOJ Demand Over Noncitizen Voter List
PN Team • 2 days ago
San Diego County has refused a U.S. Department of Justice demand to set aside nearly 1,700 ballots flagged as potentially cast by noncitizens, and is threatening legal action. The DOJ had given county officials 48 hours to work with federal agencies to verify citizenship status on the list; county counsel responded that doing so would be illegal and that the request amounted to a "thinly veiled voter purge." Officials say the DOJ provided no evidence on how the list was compiled. Similar letters reportedly went to counties statewide, with California officials citing claims covering roughly 20,000 voters.
Sources:
Sentiment
- San Diego County, California Portrayed as standing firm against a federal demand it calls illegal and a voter purge.
- California Mentioned as the broader state context where similar letters and voter claims were reported.
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Elections
San Diego officials affirm election security ahead of midterms
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
San Diego County election officials say voting is proceeding securely and on pace with typical midterm turnout, with tens of thousands of ballots already cast three weeks before Election Day. County Registrar of Voters Shawn Brom said the system remains safe and accessible for both mail-in and in-person voting at designated centers.
The reassurance comes amid broader tension between state and federal officials over election administration. California Attorney General Rob Bonta said his office sued the Trump administration after it attempted to restrict mail-in voting weeks before the election, and the Supreme Court subsequently ruled against that effort. Bonta said he expects the election to proceed without federal interference. The Trump administration has said it does not plan to deploy ICE agents at polling sites. San Diego County officials noted they are coordinating with local law enforcement to address voter intimidation and other potential irregularities, aiming to ensure the midterm election remains fair and free of disruption.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Rob Bonta Bonta is portrayed as successfully defending voting rights by suing the Trump administration, with the Supreme Court ruling in his favor.
- San Diego County, California San Diego County officials are shown proactively ensuring election security and fairness ahead of midterms.
- San Diego San Diego is depicted as running a secure, well-functioning election process.
Related Events
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Elections
San Diego County urges voters to cast ballots early ahead of November election
PN Team • 1 week ago
San Diego County's Registrar of Voters is encouraging residents to vote early for the November general election. Officials sent 1.8 million reminder postcards to voters who had not yet returned ballots as of Oct. 16. Early voting helps speed ballot processing for election night results and reduces lines at in-person vote centers, which open in phases, with some opening Saturday and the rest on Oct. 31.
Voters can return ballots by mail, at any of more than 150 drop boxes countywide, or at vote centers starting Saturday. Mailed ballots must be postmarked by Nov. 3 and received by Nov. 10. Drop box and vote center ballots are due by 8 p.m. on Election Day.
Sources:
Sentiment
- San Diego County, California San Diego County is portrayed positively as proactively encouraging voter participation and facilitating ballot access.
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Elections
San Diego County Early Voting Surges Ahead of November 3 Election
PN Team • 7 days ago
San Diego County opened dozens of vote centers this weekend as early voting ran well ahead of prior gubernatorial election pace, with about 340,000 of over 2 million mailed ballots already returned, roughly 17% turnout and 33% higher than the last comparable election at this point. Forty-one vote centers opened first, expanding to 221 by October 31. Officials emphasized security measures including envelope tracking and signature verification, and urged residents to vote early, track ballots, and register by Monday's deadline to receive a mail ballot. Voters cited both local issues and national political tension as motivating factors.
Sources:
Sentiment
- San Diego County, California Depicted as efficiently managing a surge in early voting with strong security measures.
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Elections
DOJ Pressures California Counties Over Noncitizen Voter List
PN Team • 3 days ago
The U.S. Department of Justice sent letters to 57 of California's 58 counties demanding officials help verify the citizenship status of voters flagged on a federal list of roughly 20,000 names, threatening potential criminal prosecution for tabulating ballots from noncitizens. San Diego County, given 48 hours to respond regarding 1,709 flagged voters, said it is "evaluating next steps" rather than committing to the request. The move follows a DOJ lawsuit against Los Angeles County and the Secretary of State after they declined to set aside the flagged ballots. California officials call the list error-ridden and the effort election interference, while critics say it may violate a federal "quiet period" rule barring systematic voter list reviews before elections.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Los Angeles County, California County faces a DOJ lawsuit for declining to set aside flagged ballots.
- California State officials depicted as pushing back against federal pressure, calling the list flawed and the effort interference.
- San Diego County, California County is under pressure to respond quickly to federal demands but has not committed to action.
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Climate
California’s Prop 45 sparks fight over whether data centers would get fast-tracked environmental review
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
California's Proposition 45, a November ballot measure, would amend the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) to speed review for housing, water, transportation and other projects deemed essential. Supporters, including the California Building Industry Association, say it cuts costly delays and does not cover data centers. Opponents, including community groups and some land use attorneys, argue the measure's definition of "broadband internet access projects" is broad enough that data centers could qualify, weakening environmental scrutiny for a sector tied to pollution concerns and backup diesel generators.
The dispute is fueled by a real case: Imperial County's proposed Imperial Valley Data Center Campus, nearly one million square feet, which triggered a court-ordered environmental review after resident backlash and a county-imposed moratorium that was later rescinded under legal pressure. Legal experts are split on whether courts would ultimately classify data centers as covered. If they are, critics warn Prop 45 could block local moratoriums and limit courts' ability to halt CEQA-violating projects, fueling debate ahead of the vote.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Imperial County, California Imperial County is cited as the site of a contentious data center project that triggered resident backlash, legal battles, and a rescinded moratorium.
- California California is the setting for a contentious ballot measure debate over environmental review and data centers, a balanced but mildly contentious policy dispute.
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California’s 49th Congressional District: Who Will Win the House Seat
Leading:
98.5%
Mike Levin
Vol $0.00
CA-36 House winner?
Leading:
98.9%
Ted Lieu
Vol $479.71
California’s 50th District House Race: Who Will Win
Leading:
96.5%
Scott Peters
Vol $17.6k
Who Will Win California’s 48th Congressional District House Seat
Leading:
94%
Marni von Wilpert
Vol $23.9k
California’s 18th District House Race 2026
Leading:
98.5%
Zoe Lofgren
Vol $22.3k
California’s 21st District House Race 2026
Leading:
94.5%
Jim Costa
Vol $1.00
California’s 38th Congressional District: Who Will Win the House Seat?
Leading:
98.5%
Hilda Solis
Vol $15.1k
How Many House Seats Will Democrats Win in California in 2026
Leading:
78.5%
48
Vol $8.8k