Michigan 2026 Senate Race: Who Will Win the Open Seat

A coalition of Michigan rabbis and Jewish leaders has launched a petition urging Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic Senate nominee, to change his positions and rhetoric on Israel or risk losing Jewish voter support. The letter, signed by the president of the Michigan Board of Rabbis and 14 colleagues, does not name El-Sayed but is directed at him. It lists five "nonnegotiable" demands, including support for Jewish sovereignty in Israel, a two-state solution, and full participation of Jews in American political life.

El-Sayed, a vocal Israel critic who opposes its existence as a Jewish state, won a contentious primary against Rep. Haley Stevens after AIPAC's super PAC spent heavily against him. He has since apologized for past remarks and met with some rabbis, but reception remains mixed. His ties to streamer Hasan Piker have also drawn criticism. Michigan's Senate race, pitting El-Sayed against Republican Mike Rogers, is a key battleground that could determine Senate control as Sen. Gary Peters retires.

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer joined Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed at a Grand Rapids campaign stop, pitching him as someone who will "stand up for Michigan" while casting Republican opponent Mike Rogers as likely to "fold for Donald Trump." The appearance marked a rare joint event given the two Democrats' rocky history, including a 2018 gubernatorial primary against each other and Whitmer's earlier endorsement of El-Sayed's primary rival.

The tightening race, which could help decide Senate control, later turned contentious during a televised Grand Rapids debate. Rogers accused El-Sayed of failing to acknowledge the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on its anniversary, calling it grounds for voter anger; El-Sayed said he had condemned the attack and accused Rogers of exploiting it as "political theater," a label Rogers then turned back on El-Sayed's campaign generally, including his use of a "doctor" title. El-Sayed has also faced attacks on his name and faith, including a Trump social media post calling him "Mohammed" and a "terrorist sympathizer," which he dismissed as distractions from economic issues like gas and grocery prices.

Michigan's Aug. 4 Democratic U.S. Senate primary polling missed by double digits, with pollster Adam Carlson's survey showing Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Haley Stevens by 19 points before El-Sayed won by roughly 1 point. Carlson and MSU pollster Matt Grossmann attribute the error largely to "differential nonresponse" — El-Sayed's supporters were far more likely to answer surveys than Stevens' supporters, even though demographic targets for age, gender, and region were hit accurately. Both note primary polling historically underperforms since voters lack the partisan cues available in general elections, and Michigan's lack of party registration adds further turnout uncertainty.

Looking to November, both analysts expect more reliable polling since partisanship strongly predicts general-election voting and Trump won't be on the ballot, though Trump's supporters' reluctance to answer surveys has been a separate complicating factor. Michigan's current Senate polls are mixed, with some showing Republican Mike Rogers ahead of El-Sayed and others showing El-Sayed leading. Both experts caution that polls indicate direction, not precise margins, and urge relying on averages rather than single surveys.

In Michigan's closely watched US Senate race, Republicans are canvassing for candidate Mike Rogers using a strategy that paints Democratic rival Abdul El-Sayed and his party as having veered toward socialism, while trying to mobilize infrequent voters ahead of November's midterms. Reuters observed Americans for Prosperity Action canvassers in Livonia finding mixed results: some Trump-aligned voters embraced the message, while others rejected the "extremist" framing or expressed uncertainty due to dissatisfaction with President Trump himself.

El-Sayed rejects the socialist label, calling himself a capitalist, and his campaign cites a large volunteer base. Republicans face an enthusiasm gap nationally, with polling showing Democrats more energized for the midterms, even as GOP-aligned groups outspend Democrats and plan a massive door-knocking operation. Michigan Democrats counter with their own expanded canvassing effort. The race, which Rogers narrowly lost in 2024, is seen as a bellwether for broader Republican turnout strategy and control of the Senate.

Michigan's U.S. Senate race has become one of the country's most closely watched and negative contests, pitting Democrat Abdul El-Sayed against Republican Mike Rogers with control of the Senate potentially at stake. El-Sayed has cast Rogers as a "sock puppet" for Donald Trump, citing Rogers' defense of Trump's brief delay of the Gordie Howe Bridge opening and his broader alignment with the president. Rogers has countered by branding El-Sayed a "fringe extremist," pointing to his progressive positions and a bruising Democratic primary against Haley Stevens.

Recent polling shows a tight race, with El-Sayed narrowly ahead in most surveys but within the margin of error. Analysts note the outcome may hinge on turnout among Black and Jewish voters, some of whom have expressed hesitation over El-Sayed's rhetoric on Israel and ties to livestreamer Hasan Piker, as well as on Trump's low approval ratings weighing on Rogers' candidacy.

A Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll of 600 likely Michigan voters, conducted by the Glengariff Group, found 64% oppose new data center construction, with only 19% support. Opposition crossed party lines, with strong Democrats most opposed (76%) but every subgroup showing majority disapproval. A 54% majority backed a one-year moratorium, though many opponents want an outright end rather than a pause. Michigan has 70 operational data centers, with more planned.

Similar tensions are playing out elsewhere. In Ohio, the Ohio Business Roundtable launched "Future Ready Ohio" to counter what it calls misinformation about data centers' water and electricity use, while Conserve Ohio has gathered over 130,000 signatures for a ballot measure banning hyperscale facilities. In Greensboro, North Carolina, city council held its first work session under a 180-day moratorium to examine data centers' water and wastewater impacts, with more sessions planned before the pause expires in February. The issue has become politically charged in Senate races: Michigan's Mike Rogers and Abdul El-Sayed both back construction pauses, while Ohio's Sherrod Brown has targeted Sen. Jon Husted, complicating Republican messaging as Trump continues pushing for rapid data center expansion nationally.

Michigan Senate candidates Abdul El-Sayed (D) and Mike Rogers (R) clashed in a debate over campaign finance and outside funding ahead of the November midterms. El-Sayed criticized Rogers for profiting from corporate work after leaving Congress and said he does not personally own stock, framing himself as opposed to money's influence in politics.

Rogers pushed back, calling the characterization false and raising accusations that El-Sayed has received financial support tied to George Soros and groups linked to designated terrorist organizations including Hamas, Hezbollah and Al-Qaeda. El-Sayed did not directly deny the claims during the exchange. The allegations build on earlier reporting, including Senate testimony raising homeland security concerns over El-Sayed's family ties to Muslim Brotherhood-linked groups and a voter-engagement organization connected to CAIR, as well as prior claims about donations tied to associates of Jeffrey Epstein. Rogers has repeatedly called on El-Sayed to return money linked to terrorist organizations. The race is one of several competitive Senate contests shaping control of the chamber in the midterm elections.

Michigan's open U.S. Senate race, between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers, has attracted roughly $181 million in advertising spending, making it the most expensive Senate contest in state history. The figure, tracked from January 2026 through Election Day on Nov. 3 and including both spent and reserved ads, ranks Michigan fourth nationally in total ad spending and seventh in per-capita spending. Ohio leads the country with about $407 million in Senate ad spending.

Republicans account for 58% of Michigan's ad total, a spending edge that has worried national Democrats, with much of the money coming from outside groups rather than the candidates themselves. The pro-GOP Senate Leadership Fund has placed ads on televisions in bars across the state alongside a heavy presence during NFL and college football broadcasts. With Republicans holding a narrow 53-47 Senate majority, both parties view Michigan as a pivotal battleground that could help determine control of the chamber, drawing national money and attention to a single statewide race.

Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed and Republican candidate Mike Rogers appeared separately before the Detroit Economic Club on Oct. 20 to make their case for Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat, taking questions in a session moderated by Local 4's Jason Colthorp. The appearance gave each candidate a high-profile platform ahead of the 2026 race to succeed the state's current senator. The contest is viewed as one of the more competitive Senate races in the country, with control of the chamber's narrow majority potentially hinging on contests like Michigan's. Prediction markets are tracking the race closely as both parties court business and civic audiences statewide.

President Trump is set to hold a rally Sunday in Port Huron, Michigan, ahead of the Nov. 3 election, with Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers' attendance uncertain. The visit comes as Rogers faces Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in a closely watched race that could decide Senate control, a rematch dynamic after Rogers' narrow 2024 loss to Sen. Elissa Slotkin. Political scientists say the rally could mobilize GOP turnout but also hand Democrats material tying Republicans to an unpopular president. A day earlier, Barack Obama rallies in Detroit alongside El-Sayed and gubernatorial nominee Jocelyn Benson, who faces Republican Rep. John James. Republican ads have largely avoided mentioning Trump, while Democratic ads increasingly invoke him.