Iowa Republicans, who have held a decade-long trifecta in the state alongside President Trump's rise, are voicing rare public anxiety ahead of the 2026 midterms. At a fundraiser honoring outgoing Sen. Joni Ernst, Sen. Chuck Grassley, 93, warned of a scenario where a Democratic governor could pick his Senate successor, underscoring how competitive Iowa has become. Conservative radio host Steve Deace reported that internal GOP polling shows the state trending roughly 10 points bluer than in 2024, endangering several U.S. House seats.
Rising gas and diesel prices tied to the Iran conflict, a trade dispute with China hurting soybean farmers, and a shrinking first-quarter economy have squeezed Iowa voters, denting Trump's approval even in this deep-red state. Democrat Rob Sand, the state auditor leading gubernatorial polling, is campaigning on anti-partisan themes against Republican Zach Lahn, while Josh Turek challenges Rep. Ashley Hinson for Senate. Cook Political Report now rates two of Iowa's four House seats as toss-ups and the governor's race as leaning Democratic, a marked shift for a state Trump carried by over 13 points in 2024.
