Marquette University

The Senate adjourned for a five-week recess until after the midterm elections, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer expressing confidence Democrats will retake the majority, citing strong candidates and a favorable political climate. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Republicans still expect to hold their majority, though likely narrower, given the map favors states Trump carried previously. Democratic strategists remain split between targeting flippable states like Alaska, Ohio, and Iowa versus reach states such as Mississippi and Florida. Separately, Cook Political Report shifted its Florida and Texas governor's races toward Democrats, now rating both Lean Republican rather than safer categories, citing Trump's weak approval ratings and a difficult midterm environment for the GOP, though Republicans remain favored in both pricey, traditionally red states.

Other developments: a bipartisan Senate permitting reform deal faces resistance in the House, where Democrats say they'd rather wait until after the election to negotiate from a stronger position. House Judiciary's Jamie Raskin asked federal watchdogs to probe taxpayer-funded Trump administration TV ads ahead of the midterms. Schumer also said he'll push AI safety legislation next year, with some Republican support, while Third Way unveiled a Supreme Court reform platform featuring 18-year term limits and an ethics code, aiming to shape Democratic discourse through 2028.

In Sauk County, Wisconsin, voters at a Sauk City farmers market described rising property taxes and the cost of living as the issues most shaping their votes. Longtime residents pointed to sharp increases in their tax bills over decades, saying fixed incomes make further hikes hard to absorb. An August Marquette Law School Poll found inflation and cost of living topped voters' concerns, with property taxes also ranking high; a Wisconsin Policy Forum report found the state's total tax levy posted its largest increase in nearly 20 years.

Data centers and artificial intelligence emerged as another flashpoint. The same Marquette poll found 78% of voters said the costs of data centers outweigh their benefits, and 67% said they would support a moratorium on new data centers for at least a year. Many voters interviewed identified as independents, saying they prioritize candidates who follow through on promises over party affiliation, and want commitments to protecting water, air and farmland.

Wisconsin's U.S. House delegation returned to Washington for a busy week before the Labor Day recess, with midterm politics dominating the agenda. Republican Reps. Tom Tiffany, Derrick Van Orden and Bryan Steil attended a White House Rose Garden dinner for vulnerable GOP members, where President Trump pledged to campaign in battleground districts, singling out Tiffany's gubernatorial run against Democrat David Crowley. Van Orden faces a competitive re-election contest against Democrat Rebecca Cooke. Separately, Van Orden sponsored a bill loosening D.C. motorcycle helmet requirements to mirror Wisconsin law, drawing criticism from Rep. Mark Pocan.

The House also passed a Republican-led resolution denouncing socialism, tied to a contested voter ID measure, splitting largely along party lines. Lawmakers cleared a government funding extension to December 11, signed by Trump, avoiding a pre-election shutdown. The delegation also pressed Trump for a disaster declaration after July storms, while Wisconsin election officials warned that Trump's mail-in ballot executive order would be difficult to implement before November.