Will Trump Be Impeached During His Current Term
President Trump began his second term in January 2025 facing renewed scrutiny from congressional Democrats over a range of policy and conduct disputes. Calls for impeachment have periodically resurfaced around executive actions, foreign policy decisions, and legal controversies. For impeachment to proceed, the House would need to approve articles of impeachment, followed by a Senate trial requiring a two-thirds vote to convict and remove him from office.
Why Markets Are Watching
Impeachment proceedings would consume congressional attention and deepen partisan divisions during a term already marked by sharp political conflict. A serious push could reshape the legislative agenda, affect midterm election dynamics, and test the boundaries of executive power. The outcome carries implications for how future presidents are held accountable for alleged misconduct.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Outcome
This market isolates a binary question: does impeachment actually occur before Trump’s term ends, regardless of how loud the political rhetoric gets. It separates genuine legislative momentum from symbolic gestures or messaging bills that lack votes to advance. Traders are effectively weighing House control, party discipline, and the threshold of political will needed to turn accusations into formal action.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Donald Trump -
United States Senate -
United States Congress -
United States midterm election -
Impeachment -
Article of impeachment -
Presidential system
Total Volume
$5.1m
Kalshi $773.9k · Polymarket $4.3m
Leading Market
Before Jan 20, 2029
Kalshi 70%
Before Jan 20, 2029 Volume
$773.9k
Kalshi $773.9k
Before Jan 20, 2029 24h Change
+3.00%
Kalshi +3.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 71.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Before Jan 20, 2029 on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
| By December 31, 2026 | — | — | — | 8.0¢ | 5% | , trade By December 31, 2026 on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | $773,939.76 | No market | |
| By December 31, 2026 | $4,317,611.42 | No market |