Elections
Florida’s 11th District House Race: Who Will Win?
Florida’s 11th Congressional District, covering areas including Ocala and The Villages, will hold an election in 2026 to determine its U.S. House representative. The district has been a reliable Republican stronghold in recent cycles, making it a seat to watch for both party positioning and potential upset scenarios.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House often comes down to a handful of competitive or symbolically significant districts, and FL-11 contributes to that broader national balance. The outcome will shape representation for Central Florida constituents and feed into assessments of regional political trends heading into the midterms.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question traders are weighing is simply which party, and which individual candidate, ultimately secures the seat. Separate contracts isolate the party-level outcome from named-candidate scenarios, letting participants express views on primary dynamics as well as the general election. This structure captures both the likely partisan lean of the district and the uncertainty around specific contenders.
Related terms
Total Volume
$107.4k
Kalshi $72.1k · Polymarket $35.3k
Leading Market
Joe Straus
Kalshi 88% · Polymarket 88%
Joe Straus Volume
$78.5k
Kalshi $52.9k · Polymarket $25.6k
Joe Straus 24h Change
-4.00%
Kalshi +3.00% · Polymarket -4.00%
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Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe StrausRepublican Party | 88.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Joe Straus on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 88.0¢ | 5% | , trade Joe Straus on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| James PericolaDemocratic Party | 14.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade James Pericola on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 13.0¢ | 5% | , trade James Pericola on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe StrausRepublican Party | $78,478.06 | ||
| James PericolaDemocratic Party | $28,966.90 |