Pennsylvania’s 4th District House Race 2026
Pennsylvania’s 4th Congressional District, covering Montgomery County suburbs outside Philadelphia, heads to the polls in November 2026 to elect its U.S. House representative. The district has trended Democratic in recent cycles, making it a seat watched for signs of broader suburban voting patterns. The winner will serve a two-year term beginning in January 2027.
Why Markets Are Watching
Suburban Philadelphia districts like PA-04 often signal how educated, moderate voters are leaning nationally. The outcome could shape which party controls narrow margins in the House and influences legislative priorities for the next Congress. Local turnout trends here are frequently cited as early indicators for broader midterm dynamics.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The contract reduces a multi-candidate contest into a binary choice: will the Democratic or Republican nominee win the seat. Traders are effectively weighing incumbency strength, district partisan lean, and national midterm sentiment against each other. This isolates the partisan outcome itself, stripping away vote-share margins or turnout specifics that don’t affect final control of the seat.
Related terms
Total Volume
$32k
Kalshi $4.1k · Polymarket $27.8k
Leading Market
Madeleine Dean
Kalshi 98% · Polymarket 98%
Madeleine Dean Volume
$5.8k
Kalshi $1.7k · Polymarket $4.1k
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madeleine DeanDemocratic Party | 97.9¢ | 7.0% |
|
98.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Aurora StuskiRepublican Party | 3.5¢ | 7.0% |
|
4.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Congress
Fetterman draws Democratic backlash after GOP convention video
PN Team • 2 months ago
Sen. John Fetterman, Pennsylvania Democrat, is facing sharp criticism from within his own party after recording a video message for the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, praising GOP Sen. Dave McCormick as a colleague who "gets the job done." Rep. Madeleine Dean, also of Pennsylvania, called the move a "stunt" and said she is "gravely disappointed," adding that constituents who campaigned for Fetterman are "livid." Rep. Brendan Boyle renewed his past description of Fetterman as "Trump's favorite Democrat."
The backlash reflects broader frustration over Fetterman's ideological shift since 2022, including frequent votes aligned with President Trump and his lone defense within the party of Trump's actions toward Iran. Dean also criticized his reduced engagement with Senate duties, echoing a recent Wall Street Journal report on his disinterest in hearings and constituent meetings, which Fetterman dismissed as a hit piece. A group of former staffers has said it will soon release further details about his conduct in office. Fetterman maintains he has no plans to leave the Democratic Party.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party is portrayed as internally fractured and frustrated over Fetterman's actions.
- Republican Party (United States) The GOP convention is depicted positively as gaining a Democratic senator's praise for its candidate.
- Madeleine Dean Dean is quoted expressing personal disappointment, framing her as aggrieved but not reputationally harmed.
- United States Senate Referenced in context of Fetterman's reduced engagement with Senate duties, a mild negative but institutional mention.
- Brendan Boyle Boyle is shown criticizing Fetterman but not directly implicated in wrongdoing, a neutral-to-slightly critical role.
- Dallas Dallas is mentioned only as the location of the convention, with no reputational implication.
- Pennsylvania Pennsylvania is mentioned factually as Fetterman's and Dean's home state without direct reputational impact.
- United States House of Representatives Mentioned only factually as the chamber where Dean and Boyle serve.
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Elections
Giffords PAC Targets Pennsylvania Races in Push for Gun-Control House Majority
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Giffords PAC, the gun-control group led by former Rep. Gabby Giffords and backed by Sen. Mark Kelly, has made Pennsylvania a central battleground in its effort to help Democrats win a House majority. The PAC is endorsing nine Pennsylvania candidates, including Gov. Josh Shapiro as he seeks reelection against Republican state treasurer Stacy Garrity, who has the NRA's backing. Other endorsees include Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti, Janelle Stelson, and incumbent Reps. Madeleine Dean, Chris Deluzio, Chrissy Houlahan, Summer Lee, and Mary Gay Scanlon. Notably, the PAC also endorsed Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, who has an "F" rating from the NRA.
The group has committed roughly $850,000 toward Cognetti's congressional bid alone and plans to spend $10 million nationally this cycle. Cognetti's opponent, Rep. Rob Bresnahan, has pushed back, citing her past comments questioning police and citizen gun ownership. Giffords PAC frames Pennsylvania as pivotal not only for 2026 but for positioning ahead of 2028, underscoring how gun policy remains a flashpoint in competitive House races nationwide.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Chrissy Houlahan Listed as an endorsed incumbent Democrat, a mildly favorable mention.
- Josh Shapiro Endorsed in his reelection bid, portrayed favorably as frontrunner facing a NRA-backed opponent.
- Madeleine Dean Listed as an endorsed incumbent Democrat, a mildly favorable mention.
- Mark Kelly Portrayed favorably as a backer of the gun-control PAC's efforts.
- Mary Gay Scanlon Listed as an endorsed incumbent Democrat, a mildly favorable mention.
- Summer Lee Listed as an endorsed incumbent Democrat, a mildly favorable mention.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are the party the PAC is helping win a House majority, a mild positive framing.
- Law enforcement Referenced via Bresnahan's criticism of Cognetti's past comments questioning police, a mildly negative tangential mention.
- Pennsylvania Central setting of the political battle, described factually without reputational charge.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned factually as the opposing party, with one Republican endorsed and another criticized, balancing out neutrally.
- United States Congress House majority context mentioned factually without reputational implication.
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Elections
Shapiro and Garrity face off in lone Pennsylvania governor’s debate
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Gov. Josh Shapiro and Republican challenger Stacy Garrity met Wednesday night in the only scheduled televised debate of the Pennsylvania governor's race, ahead of the Nov. 3 election. The hourlong forum, hosted by abc27 and moderated by anchor Dennis Owens, aired across several Nexstar-owned stations statewide and streamed online. Libertarian candidate Ken Krawchuk was not invited.
Shapiro, a popular incumbent and potential 2028 presidential contender, enters the race with a large fundraising and polling lead, touting first-term accomplishments including infrastructure repairs, business recruitment, and utility cost caps. Garrity, the state treasurer and Trump-endorsed Republican seeking to become Pennsylvania's first female governor, used the debate to raise her profile and press Shapiro on affordability, school choice, and his handling of a sexual harassment settlement involving a former aide. Both candidates have faced scrutiny over shifting positions on data center development, a contentious issue with bipartisan voter opposition. Shapiro's campaign has sought to tie Garrity closely to Trump, while she has pushed back on characterizations of her 2020 election comments. Analysts note debates rarely shift outcomes in races with such a wide polling gap.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Josh Shapiro Shapiro is portrayed as a popular, well-funded incumbent touting first-term accomplishments, though facing some scrutiny over a harassment settlement.
- Donald Trump Mentioned as having endorsed Garrity and as a figure Shapiro's campaign is tying her to, a mildly contentious association.
- Pennsylvania Pennsylvania is the setting of the gubernatorial race, mentioned factually without reputational framing.
- Republican Party (United States) Referenced neutrally as Garrity's party affiliation without evaluative framing.
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Elections
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro Outlines Record and Priorities Ahead of Reelection
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, 53, a Montgomery County resident and former state attorney general, state representative, and county commissioner, detailed his record and positions as he seeks reelection. He supports maintaining abortion access and legalizing recreational cannabis, and has proposed legalizing and taxing skill games at 52%. Shapiro, once a data center booster, now says new facilities must meet strict guardrails requiring developers to generate their own power, protect air and water, and win local community support. He backs an "all of the above" energy strategy combining natural gas, solar, wind, and nuclear under his "Lightning Plan." He cites tax cuts and nearly 29,000 new jobs from his first term.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Josh Shapiro Shapiro is portrayed positively, touting job growth, tax cuts, and balanced energy policy ahead of reelection.
- Pennsylvania Pennsylvania is the setting for positive economic claims like job creation and tax cuts under Shapiro's administration.
- Montgomery County, Pennsylvania Referenced only as Shapiro's home county, a neutral factual mention.
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Elections
Pennsylvania heads to polls for 2026 general election with governor’s race and key House seats at stake
PN Team • 1 week ago
Pennsylvania voters go to the polls on Nov. 3, 2026, in a general election that will help decide control of Congress and the state's next governor. Voter registration closed Oct. 19, and mail-in ballot requests are due by Oct. 27; polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Election Day.
The marquee race pits Democratic incumbent Gov. Josh Shapiro against Republican state Treasurer Stacy Garrity, with Libertarian Ken Krawchuk also on the ballot. All Pennsylvania House seats and half the state Senate are up for election. Closely watched U.S. House contests include the 7th District, where Democrat Bob Brooks challenges Republican incumbent Ryan Mackenzie, and the 1st District, where Republican Brian Fitzpatrick faces Democrat Bob Harvie in perennially competitive Bucks County.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Josh Shapiro Described neutrally as the incumbent Democratic governor seeking reelection.
- Pennsylvania Central subject of the article as the state holding the election, described in a neutral civic context.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned neutrally as the party of the incumbent governor and a congressional candidate.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned neutrally as the party of several candidates.
- United States Congress Referenced factually as the body whose control is at stake.
- United States House of Representatives Referenced factually regarding competitive House races.
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Elections
Bucks and Montgomery counties emerge as battlegrounds for control of Pa. state Senate
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
Control of Pennsylvania's state Senate could hinge on three Philadelphia suburban districts, as Democrats aim to flip the chamber for the first time in 33 years. Republicans currently hold 27 of 50 seats; Democrats need to flip at least two and retain the governor's office to take the majority via the lieutenant governor's tie-breaking vote.
Democratic challengers Eileen Hartnett Albillar (6th District, Bucks County), Mark Pinsley (16th District, Bucks/Lehigh), and Chris Thomas (24th District, Montgomery/Berks) are challenging GOP incumbents Frank Farry, Jarrett Coleman, and Tracy Pennycuick, respectively. All three districts favor Republicans in voter registration, though Gov. Josh Shapiro has endorsed the Democratic candidates and his own reelection bid is on the same ballot.
Both parties are centering campaigns on affordability, with Democrats tying races to dissatisfaction with President Trump's handling of the economy and gas prices, while Republicans emphasize fiscal restraint and bipartisan legislative wins. A Democratic trifecta would open the door to priorities like a minimum wage increase and transportation funding previously blocked by the GOP-controlled Senate.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is referenced in connection with voter dissatisfaction over the economy and gas prices, a negative association.
- Josh Shapiro Shapiro is portrayed positively as an active endorser bolstering Democratic candidates' campaigns.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are portrayed as mounting a strong effort to flip the state Senate, a favorable framing of momentum.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are depicted as the defending majority facing voter dissatisfaction tied to economic issues, a mildly unfavorable framing.
- Pennsylvania Pennsylvania is the neutral geographic setting for the state Senate battle described.
- Philadelphia Philadelphia suburbs are mentioned factually as the location of the contested districts.
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Elections
Pennsylvania Democrats escalate criticism of Fetterman’s Senate performance
PN Team • 2 months ago
Pennsylvania Democrats are publicly criticizing Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) after a Wall Street Journal report alleged he avoided meetings with disabled service members and Children's Hospital of Philadelphia staff concerned about Medicaid cuts, instead opting for a Fox News interview. The report also found Fetterman attended 26 of 31 committee hearings over the past year but stayed silent in 20 of them.
Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.) called Fetterman a "lazy trust fund baby," referencing the senator's past acknowledgment that his parents supported him financially into his forties. Rep. Chris Deluzio (D-Pa.) said Fetterman lacks "a sense of duty" and vowed Pennsylvania voters would act in 2028. DNC Vice Chair and state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta called Fetterman a "part-time senator, full-time commentator," saying he is frequently absent from his duties. The criticism follows earlier tension over Fetterman's handling of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The public rebukes signal deepening intraparty friction ahead of Fetterman's next reelection cycle.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) The story depicts open intraparty conflict among Pennsylvania Democrats criticizing one of their own senators, reflecting negatively on party unity.
- United States Senate The Senate is portrayed negatively as the venue where Fetterman allegedly underperformed and stayed silent in hearings.
- Pennsylvania Pennsylvania is mentioned mainly as the political context for the criticism, without direct reputational impact on the state itself.
- Philadelphia Philadelphia is referenced via Children's Hospital staff affected by Medicaid cuts, a factual detail with slight negative connotation.
- United States House of Representatives Referenced tangentially since the critics are House members, but the House itself is not the focus of criticism.
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2028 Cycle
Fetterman faces rising criticism from Pennsylvania Democrats
PN Team • 2 months ago
Tensions between Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) and fellow Pennsylvania Democrats have escalated. Rep. Chris Deluzio (D-Pa.) told CNN's Jake Tapper that Fetterman is "nowhere to be found" while other Democrats campaign for competitive congressional races in the state, adding that constituents feel disrespected by the senator's approach to his office.
The criticism follows a Wall Street Journal report alleging Fetterman skipped meetings with disabled veterans to appear on Fox News and expressed frustration about meeting with Children's Hospital of Philadelphia representatives. Fetterman further angered Democrats by appearing at the Republican National Convention to introduce Sen. Dave McCormick (R-Pa.), with whom he shares a close relationship.
Deluzio said he has received encouragement to challenge Fetterman for his Senate seat in 2028 but has not made a decision, saying his current focus is down-ballot races. Polling from The New York Times, Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena University shows Fetterman is now far more popular among Pennsylvania Republicans than among Democrats.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) The party is portrayed as internally divided and frustrated with Fetterman, reflecting negatively on party cohesion.
- Pennsylvania Pennsylvania is depicted as the site of political discord and declining support for Fetterman among its Democratic base, a mildly negative context.
- Philadelphia Philadelphia is mentioned only via Children's Hospital of Philadelphia and a poll source, a tangential neutral reference.
- United States Senate The Senate is referenced only as the office Fetterman holds, a neutral factual mention.
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Pennsylvania exposed as U.S.-Canada tariff dispute escalates
PN Team • 2 months ago
A trade dispute between the United States and Canada is intensifying after talks over a new deal collapsed, with the Trump administration imposing tariffs as high as 50% on goods including hockey sticks, flags, and building materials. Canada responded with retaliatory tariffs on roughly $20 billion in U.S. goods, targeting sectors like appliances, steel, dairy, and electronics, effective September 8.
Pennsylvania, whose $13.4 billion in annual exports make Canada its top trading partner, is caught in the fallout: about $2 billion of its exports, including aluminum, lumber, and vehicles, face steeper tariffs. Analysts say the state wasn't deliberately targeted but will still absorb significant costs, likely passed on to consumers. The dispute adds economic uncertainty ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, with Pennsylvania's competitive House races and its gubernatorial contest between Democratic incumbent Josh Shapiro and Republican Stacy Garrity both drawing attention to tariff policy as a political flashpoint.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's tariff policy is portrayed as the trigger for economic fallout affecting Pennsylvania.
- Pennsylvania Pennsylvania is portrayed as economically harmed by the tariff dispute, facing higher costs and uncertainty.
- United States The U.S. is depicted as the initiator of tariffs that caused economic disruption and retaliation.
- Josh Shapiro Shapiro is mentioned neutrally as a candidate in a competitive gubernatorial race amid the tariff dispute.
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Politics
Philadelphia DA Larry Krasner Referred to DOJ Over Alleged Obstruction
PN Team • 1 month ago
U.S. District Judge Paul Diamond has referred Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner to the Justice Department for investigation, alleging obstruction related to a federal court hearing. According to reporting, supervisors in Krasner's office scrutinized internal conduct ahead of the June hearing, raising questions about how the office handled matters connected to a case reviewed for a possible miscarriage of justice.
Krasner, a leading figure among progressive prosecutors nationally, was first elected in 2017 with backing from criminal justice reform donors, including George Soros, and has built a reputation for challenging traditional prosecutorial practices. The referral marks a significant legal and political threat to his tenure, arriving as Philadelphia's Democratic establishment, including Mayor Cherelle Parker, navigates its relationship with his office. The outcome of any DOJ inquiry could affect Krasner's standing, his reelection prospects, and the broader progressive prosecutor movement he has come to symbolize nationally.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) Philadelphia's Democratic establishment is portrayed as navigating a delicate relationship with Krasner's troubled office.
- Philadelphia Philadelphia is referenced as the setting for the controversy affecting its DA's office.
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